Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 272349
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
549 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
likely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period.
Currently have MVFR/IFR flight conditions at all but FST where LIFR
continues this evening. Looks as though conditions will deteriorate
quickly over the next several hours with -FZDZ and LIFR cigs/vis
expected at most terminals by 28/06Z. Expect periods of -FZDZ to
persist through Saturday morning, potentially resulting in slick
runways during this time as temps remain well below freezing through
mid-day. Will continue to monitor current trends and amend if/when
needed. Otherwise, conditions will improve to MVFR and eventually
VFR Saturday afternoon. E winds around 12kt will remain elevated
overnight and veer to the SE Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Significant snows that affected our area overnight and this morning
have moved east of the area.  However, radar and hourly observations
continue to indicate occasional light snow at various locations.

Road conditions were certainly affected earlier today by significant
snowfall combined with some light freezing precipitation. The most
significant snows fell in northern portions of Lea County where 4 to
6 inches of snow fell. The northern portions of the Texas Permian
Basin reported snowfall amounts generally in the 1-3 inch range
overnight and this morning.

Even with the majority of the snow moving east of the area, the
forecast this evening into the tomorrow morning remains quite
difficult.  Both the Canadian and NAM models show very light
precipitation across a large portions of the CWA, generally along
and east of the mountains, this evening and then continuing into
Saturday morning.  The GFS also indicates overnight precipitation,
primarily over the northern portions of the CWA.  However, the GFS
is having some real struggles handling this winter weather event.
Thus, have trended our forecast towards the NAM and Canadian models.

A warm later around 750 mb is expected to develop later this evening
and overnight.  As this occurs, we will see a transition from light
snow to light freezing drizzle.  In addition, areas of freezing fog
are expected to develop along and east of the mountains as well.

This sets up for an interesting situation.  While we are not
anticipating significant accumulations of ice, there is certainly
potential for minor ice accumulations that will affect bridges and
overpasses.  In addition, the loss of sun angle will refreeze some
wet roadways across the area.  Thus, while not meeting formal
thresholds for a winter weather advisory, we believe the impact
warrants issuance of a winter weather advisory beginning later this
evening and continuing until noon CST tomorrow.

We should finally see a warmup beginning late tomorrow afternoon as
we finally warm above freezing into the 40s.  Sunday temperatures
should be much more in line with climatological normals with highs
in the 60s.

A weak cold front will push into the area on Monday with another
reinforcement of colder air on Wednesday.  Even with cooler air
moving into the area, it will not be near as cold as what we are
experiencing now.  For now, will maintain slight to chance POPs
across the central and eastern portions of the CWA through
mid-week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
     Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

27

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