Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181743
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening at all but
KMAF and KINK where MVFR ceilings will hang in until at least
18/20Z. Think more thunderstorms will develop through this
evening, so have included TSRA at all TAF sites. Will lower
ceilings to MVFR at most sites tonight, but later issuances will
tackle more reductions in ceiling and visibility due to heavy rain
and fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the Davis Mountains and
across portions of the Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...

Remnants of tropical system Odile were located west of El Paso this
morning, and moving east/northeastward.  Copious amounts of moisture
associated with Odile have allowed PWats to rise to 1.75 inches,
which is verified on the KMAF sounding, and is around 3 standard
deviations above normal.  Moderate to heavy rain was occurring over
the northern Permian Basin around 18/15Z, while portions of Eddy,
Lea, Gaines and Andrews counties had heavy rainfall in the last 6 to
8 hours.  Some of these locations have received 3 to 4 inches.

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex was moving across Gaines County in the
northern Permian Basin.  This MCV may move out of the CWA in the
next few hours, however there are indications in Water Vapor imagery
that additional mid level circulations will be moving over the
forecast area this afternoon and tonight.  As the atmosphere
destabilizes from in and around the Davis Mountains to the Guadalupe
Mountains, progs are indicating upwards of 1000 J/Kg, expect
additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and spread east and
northeastward across the forecast area.  Expect subsequent showers
and storms to move around 10 to 15 mph, with some of the storms
possibly producing up to 1.5 inches of rainfall in an hour.
Considering the above, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to
include the Davis Mountains, and much of the Permian Basin.  Also,
expanded the FFA until 20/00Z.  Will send an update to the forecast
shortly.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile opening up and set to move
over West Texas/SE NM in SW flow aloft later today. TAFs will be
messy, but most terminals should stay VFR through 00Z Friday except
KCNM, which should vary between MVFR and VFR at times. Lwr
cigs/visibilities can be expected in areas of direct convection.
forecast soundings suggest IFR cigs at KCNM/KHOB after 00Z, and
MVFR at KMAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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