Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 252034
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area this morning but you wouldn`t
know it looking at the temperatures. Highs today will actually be
warmer than they were yesterday with a northerly wind shift the
only evidence of the frontal passage. The upper pattern early this
week will feature weak ridging/westerly flow which will continue
above normal highs into Wednesday.

Thursday is when we will see a major shift in the weather pattern
as an upper low digs into southern California creating a split jet
over the western CONUS. The northern stream will edge up into
western Canada and drop into the Central Plains pushing a cold
front into Texas on Thursday. This will provide some cooling, but
the southern stream will be the one to watch as it advects
moisture off the Pacific and brings a return of precipitation. The
GFS continues to be the most aggressive in not only the areal
extent of the rainfall, but also in duration and QPF though the
other models are definitely trending towards the wetter solution.
Have upped PoPs to "likely" for much of the area Friday night into
Saturday which is certainly a rarity for so far out in the
forecast but model consensus provides more confidence than usual
in this wet forecast. Precipitation is expected to start Thursday
night and continue all the way into Sunday thanks to a very slow
moving or perhaps even stationary upper low to our west.

The biggest uncertainty in this forecast is temperatures, as they
will be very close to the rain/sleet/snow cutoff. The split nature
of the upper pattern will prevent very cold air from filtering
south with 850-700mb temperatures anywhere from +2C to -3C. Much
of the cooling may come from evaporational processes which are
difficult to forecast a week out. Therefore will start the
p-type as rain into Friday mixing some snow in by Saturday and
Sunday. Since temperatures are so marginal for wintry precip, it
does not appear at this time there will be much opportunity for
significant accumulations but this will have to be closely
monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 34  69  37  70  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  71  38  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                30  64  36  73  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  39  70  42  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           36  69  41  75  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          35  62  41  61  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   32  68  36  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   29  65  37  65  /   0   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    34  69  37  71  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  35  69  38  71  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  68  35  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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