Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 20/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals through 21/18Z.
Gusty south to southeast winds will decrease after sunset (except
at FST where some channeling of the LLJ to the surface occurs), then
pick up again during the mid morning hours. Isolated convection will
remain over the mountains and away from area terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM CDT Wednesday...The anomalous and
record breaking (so far) hot July just keeps on rolling with
above normal temperatures expected for AT LEAST the next seven
days across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

Little to no change from previous forecast thinking. Water vapor
imagery and GOES High Density Winds clearly show the center of the
upper ridge over the Southern Plains...in particular Oklahoma. The
ridge will ever so slowly build west over the next seven days. The
CWA will be generally in a deep layer east to northeast flow. This
will result in above normal temps...at or near 100 in the Plains...
100-105 in the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys...and the 90s in
the mountains. Any thunderstorm activity will be confined to the
Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains with the upslope flow and
intense heating...with an outside shot of convection in the Davis
Mountains. Looking further out in the extended models show little
change in the current weather pattern thru the end of July.

Strobin

Climate...Some fun (hot) July 1-19, 2016 record breaking climate
facts for Midland, Texas.

Average Maximum Temperature (Normal for July is 95 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1     102.8    2016
  2     101.1    1964
  3     100.5    1998
  4     100.2    1989
  5      99.7    2011

Average Minimum Temperature (Normal for July is 70 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      75.7    2016
  2      73.7    1964
  3      73.6    1998
  4      73.4    2000
  5      73.3    2011

Average Temperature (Normal for July is 82 degrees):
Rank    Value    Year
  1      89.3    2016
  2      87.4    1964
  3      87.0    1998
  4      86.5    2011
  5      85.6    2001

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       97  71  99  70 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         97  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          95  69  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          90  61  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  73  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          100  75 101  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/80/70


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