Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS64 KMAF 152314
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
514 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Confidence was
high enough to mention a tempo period of MVFR ceilings at the
terminals late tonight through mid Thursday morning.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are cooler today in the wake of a weak cold front,
which has nearly made it to the Rio Grande this afternoon. Highs
in the 60s and 70s for all but far southern locations are on
target today, with cloudcover expanding across the eastern Permian
Basin acting to keep temperatures a bit lower in that area.
Tonight will be a little cooler than the previous several nights,
though still above normal, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s for
most. Not too much change in the pattern is expected on Thursday,
aside from a return to southerly surface flow, which will allow
temperatures to warm up a few degrees above today`s highs. By
Friday, an upper trough will come ashore over the Pacific
Northwest and quickly move eastward across the Northern Rockies.
In response to this feature, a lee trough will develop, resulting
in a southwesterly to westerly wind shift. The downsloping winds
and favorable location of an 850mb thermal ridge across the
region will yield the potential for significant warming on Friday
afternoon, leading to near record and record highs in the 80s and
lower 90s across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas.

The aforementioned upper trough will translate eastward Friday
night and Saturday, deepening as it enters the Great Plains. A
cold front associated with this trough is progged to move through
the region on Saturday, with models in good agreement regarding
the timing. The front should edge into northern portions of the
area by mid-morning on Saturday, and quickly progress south of the
Pecos River by midday, resulting in a return to near/below normal
temperatures for most of the area. Highs are expected to range
from the upper 50s/lower 60s north to the 70s and 80s south, a far
cry from the anticipated record warmth on Friday. Given dry
antecedent conditions, no precipitation is expected with the
front, though winds may become gusty out of the northeast for a
few hours during the day on Saturday. As high pressure settles
into the region behind the front, lows Saturday night will drop
into the 30s for most of the area, and highs Sunday will remain
below normal in the 50s and 60s.

Thereafter, models are in disagreement regarding the evolution of
the upper pattern. While the GFS maintains dry northwesterly flow
aloft next week, the ECMWF maintains zonal flow, and indicates a
closed low that will meander across New Mexico and into West Texas
on Tuesday before drifting south into Mexico through midweek. If
the latter were to verify, rain chances would be possible for much
of the area. However, given the discrepancy in guidance next
week, have not deviated much from the blended solution at this
time. That is, near normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with
slightly cooler temperatures by midweek, along with low
precipitation chances, mainly across eastern zones Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  70  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  74  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  76  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  49  77  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  72  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          41  68  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  76  41  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           46  71  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  71  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           45  73  48  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.