Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans Pecos.
Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the Lower Rio
Grande Valley, and local heavy rain isn possible. Mid level theta-e
ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this evening best
PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However there`s a
substantial amount of TCU developing across the area currently,
including the PB and in the near term there is an increasing
chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be possible just
e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv trof/s come out.
The upper low will be weakening/filling as it slowly moves e Tue.
This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs farther e, including
across the PB. Model consensus including HPC QPF is again supporting
best PoPs to be to the w extending from the Davis Mtns into the wrn
PB, possibly central PB. Current grids reflect this pretty well and
will make only minor adjustments. Finally Wed this slow moving trof
axis will be farther e into the PB and this actually may be the day
with the best chance of rain with NAM12 bringing out a well defined
maxima of lift in mid levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40%
and will opt to increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern
transitions to ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures
will return. A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus
cooler, but moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  70  54  71  /  20  30  40  60
BIG SPRING TX              59  74  56  71  /  20  20  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                57  70  57  75  /  50  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  64  73  61  74  /  50  40  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  71  57  74  /  40  60  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  66  51  69  /  50  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   56  70  53  67  /  30  40  40  60
MARFA TX                   54  68  50  72  /  50  60  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  73  54  72  /  20  40  40  60
ODESSA TX                  58  72  55  73  /  30  40  40  60
WINK TX                    62  73  59  77  /  40  50  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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