Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 192312
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals the next 24 hours. Tempo VFR conditions in tsra
is expected at KHOB through 20/01z.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge remains anchored over the Central Plains today,
maintaining easterly to southeasterly flow aloft over the region.
The flow aloft along with southeasterly surface flow is
maintaining ample moisture areawide, particularly across the
higher terrain. Similar to the past few days, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms have already developed across higher
elevations and the adjacent plains. These storms are expected to
continue through this evening, with additional development
expected due to outflow boundary interactions. However, the bulk
of the activity will remain west of the Pecos River. Primary
concerns with these storms include locally heavy rainfall,
lightning, and gusty winds, with localized flooding possible,
particularly for areas that have received rainfall the past few
days. Temperatures this afternoon are on target to top out in the
middle to upper 90s for most, with 80s across the higher terrain,
and lows tonight will drop into the 60s and 70s, similar to the
past several nights. Little change is expected the next few days,
aside from slightly warmer temperatures each day as 850mb
temperatures gradually rise to 26-30C by Friday. Highs around 100
degrees will be possible through the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys
and portions of the Permian Basin Friday and Saturday.

The ridge axis will shift eastward to the Middle Mississippi/Lower
Ohio Valleys by the start of the weekend, with southeasterly flow
continuing over the region under the southwestern periphery of the
upper ridge. Models indicate the potential for a disturbance to
track westward across Texas this weekend, which could yield
increased rain chances across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin as
moisture and temperatures will remain elevated. An upper low
moving through the Great Lakes late in the weekend will amplify
the pattern somewhat, with ridging expected to reassert itself
across the western CONUS. The ridge will then build eastward over
the region, which will yield continued near normal to just above
normal temperatures for early next week, along with thunderstorm
chances once again focused across higher elevations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  97  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  97  72  98 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                         74  97  76 100 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  72  95  72  97 /  10  10   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  87  68  89 /  20  20  20  30
Hobbs                          69  94  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          62  88  62  89 /  20  20  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           73  97  73  98 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         73  97  73  98 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           73  98  74 100 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/84


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