Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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370
FXUS64 KMAF 070430
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1030 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Satellite shows low clouds in KOZA at 008 ft and these CIGS are
expected to develop nwwd into the morning arriving at most sites
around 08Z-09Z. SE wind less than 10kts tonight and CIGS will
lift around 17Z-18Z as sw-w winds develop. Attention then turns
to Arctic FROPA late in the forecast period. Post-frontal MVFR
CIGs will develop between 03Z-06Z/Thur at MAF/HOB, elsewhere
afterwards.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to lower temperatures for tonight given the
current trends...particularly across the northern half of the
CWA. Clearing skies and fairly light winds have resulted in temps
rapidly cooling tonight and several locations across Lea County
and northern Permian Basin had already reached or were approaching
the previously forecasted lows at 9PM CST. Looks as though low
clouds will move in tonight but not for several more hours
therefore above mentioned locations were dropped several degrees.
Otherwise, there still remains a possibility of some areas of
light fog across the region early Wednesday morning. Also added
mention of patchy freezing fog across much of Lea County and
northern Permian Basin where below freezing temperatures are
expected. The remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are expected to develop nwwd after 06Z into all TAFs
sites except CNM with SE wind mostly less than 10kts overnight.
Low clouds will dissipate 15Z-18Z. Arctic cold front will hold
off passing until just after 00Z/Thur.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough extends across the country with an upper low
over northern Minnesota and another shortwave trough is over the
Pacific Northwest moving southeastward with the upper flow.  A cold
front moving through the area has resulted in cooler temperatures
today with highs only expected to be in the 40s across the northern
half of the Permian Basin and into southeast New Mexico.  The
surface high will move to the east of the area tonight with winds
returning to the south so low temperatures tonight will only be a
little cooler than last night.  NAM forecast soundings are showing a
chance of fog tonight for eastern portions of the area, but the GFS
is showing high cloud moving over the area so this may inhibit fog
formation.  Added a mention of patchy fog to the grids for tonight
although certainty is not high that it will develop.

The previously mentioned shortwave over the Pacific Northwest will
move over the Central Plains sending another, stronger cold front
south toward the CWA on Wednesday.  In advance of the cold front on
Wednesday, surface winds will become southwesterly then westerly
allowing for compressional warming resulting in temperatures warming
up into the 60s for much of the area.  The cold front is expected to
begin moving into the CWA Wednesday evening with brisk northeast
winds behind it.  The front will proceed through the rest of the CWA
early Thursday morning and will result in low temperatures cooling
to below freezing for all the CWA except for locations generally
south of Marfa and along the Rio Grande.  Some areas across the
Western Low Rolling Plains and the far eastern Permian Basin may
even have a hard freeze Thursday morning. Have issued a Freeze Watch
for Thursday morning for a hard freeze for these above mentioned
areas. There is also a chance of high winds through Guadalupe Pass
Thursday morning as the front moves into the area so have issued a
High Wind Watch from 09z to 15z Thursday.

An upper level shortwave is expected to move over the region on
Thursday and will coincide with the lift from the front.  Also, the
right rear quadrant of an upper jet is expected to move over the
region Thursday morning further enhancing lift.  The models are
producing a band of precipitation generally along the I-10 corridor
and along the higher terrain extending northward into the Permian
Basin and southeast New Mexico.  Due to the cold temperatures,
precipitation type will be of concern.  Forecast soundings seem to
indicate a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the
area.

The upper trough and upper lift will shift eastward by Thursday
night and the precipitation is expected to be over with by then as
well.  High temperatures during the day on Thursday will not warm up
much with highs only in the 30s across most of the CWA with mostly
cloudy skies and precipitation across the area. The cold air mass
will still be in place Friday morning resulting in low temperatures
reaching 28 degrees or below for all of the CWA except along the Rio
Grande River.  Temperatures will warm up a little bit on Friday
afternoon but still remain well below normal with highs mostly in
the 40s. Surface winds will increase out of the south to southwest
on Saturday with a surface trough developing during the afternoon so
high temperatures will likely warm up into the 60s across most of
the area.  The models are indicating another cold front moving into
the area on either Sunday or Monday but the extended forecast
appears to be dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  60  27  34 /   0   0  20  20
Carlsbad                       32  63  28  35 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                         40  67  40  40 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Stockton                  38  68  31  36 /   0   0  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 33  53  25  30 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          30  57  22  33 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          31  62  32  36 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           34  62  28  34 /   0   0  20  20
Odessa                         35  62  28  34 /   0   0  20  20
Wink                           34  63  30  36 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$



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