Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 291116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. West winds will
shift from the northwest and gust to 20-30kts before 18Z,
continuing through 00Z before subsiding and backing from the west
once again.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Wednesday...a much calmer day is
in store for West Texas/Southeast New Mexico.

It appears based on sfc obs and radar data that last evenings
severe wx was caused by a retreating dry line (pushed west by
outflow from convection to the east) interacting with a mid level
shortwave.

Satl imagery and KMAF radar is showing that the center of the
upper low is just WSW of Lubbock. As the low moves east and the
trough axis passes across there could be some convection across
the Guadalupe Mtns...Northern Eddy/Lea Counties...and the Northern
Permian Basin. No severe wx is expected as temps will be
significantly cooler (below normal for a change) which would cut
down on the instability. It will be breezy today...but winds
should stay below Advisory criteria.

Ridging will move over the Southern Plains ahead of the next
system which is in the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in dry
weather thru the remainder of the week along with rapidly warming
temps...up to 5-10 degrees above normal on Friday. Winds will be
breezy...especially Friday but will remain below High Wind and
Advisory criteria.

The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will move into New Mexico
Saturday...then move slowly east on Sunday. Saturday looks to be
warm and dry. Moist Gulf of Mexico air will be drawn northwest
into Central...and possibly West Texas on Sunday. As of now...and
it is very early...models are hinting at a dryline developing in
the Central Permian Basin Sunday moving east late in the aftn.

Riding will bring warm and dry weather Monday. Yet another Upper
low will move across the South Central Plains next Tuesday and
Wednesday. This system looks like it will be a wind producer.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will move through the area today
bringing cooler temperatures to the area. That combined with rain
across much of the Permian Basin has alleviated the fire weather
threat for today. One location that may see near critical or low
end critical fire weather conditions is the Big Bend along the Rio
Grande where temperatures will be warmest in the area and did not
see any appreciable rainfall yesterday. Given the forecast
uncertainty, decided not to issue a warning and will opt for a
Fire Danger Statement today for our southernmost CWA.

Increasingly warmer and drier conditions will return to the entire
area Thursday and Friday increasing the fire weather threat. However
winds will generally be below 20 mph except perhaps in Eddy County
which could see low end critical fire weather conditions. We will
continue to monitor this area for a possible watch or warning over
the next 24-48 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  46  78  53 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  43  81  51 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  50  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  47  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 53  43  70  51 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  42  76  50 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  40  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  46  78  53 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         64  46  79  53 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           65  45  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10


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