Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 251853
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Well, it is HOT today! At 10am CDT this morning, several locations
had already reached 90F. As of 1pm, most locations were well in the
90s...100s in the Pecos River Valley and across Big Bend area. The
upper ridge axis will shift east tonight with nearly zonal flow
aloft expected tomorrow. 850mb temps will be slightly cooler Friday
however modest west winds will continue at the surface so another
hot day is expect. The record high temperature at Midland Intl for
today (May 25th) is 105 and at the moment it looks like this record
is safe however the record for May 26th could be in jeopardy as the
record for that date currently sits at a merely 100F. As of 1:30pm
CDT, high winds had yet to materialize in the Guadalupe Mountains.
Regardless, think there is still time and will let the High Wind
Warning stand for this area. Gusty west winds expected once again
tomorrow but not strong enough for wind highlights.

Saturday will be cooler (a degree or two) as the 850 mb thermal
ridge shifts south a bit. A cold front is still expected to bring us
some relief on Sunday, and temperatures look to be much more
reasonable with highs in the 80s most areas. Most will remain dry
Sunday however there may be enough moisture across eastern zones for
a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening but confidence is
fairly low at this time... Moisture will return to the region
beginning Monday with east/southeast winds at the surface persisting
through midweek...although flow will be fairly weak. Meanwhile, a
series of upper waves are progged to move overhead which may keep
rain chances in the forecast and below normal temperatures for
much of the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WV imagery shows SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, while at the sfc, gusty westerly downslope warming has
resulted in afternoon temps approaching triple digits, and
consequent RH in the single digits.  As such, western zones are
currently in Red Flag conditions, although this may be tempered
somewhat in the south due to recent rains.

While temperatures won`t be quite as warm Friday, today`s westerly
flow and poor recovery tonight will result in widespread single-
digit RH again Friday afternoon.  Forecast soundings mix to around,
on average, 625mb, where 30-40kt SW-W flow is forecast.  This will
once again result in critical fire wx conditions over SE NM and most
of Culberson County, where RTFIs of 7-8 are forecast.  Thus, we`ll
leave the Fire Wx Watch in place for Friday afternoon.  ERC for the
Srn Plains has crept back up to normal, but critical winds do not
look to materialize there Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69 101  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  98  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71 102  73 101 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  70 100  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  90  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  96  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  92  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70 100  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         70  99  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68 102  65 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

44/27


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