Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 131124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Surface pressure
pattern remains unorganized and winds will be southeast 10 to 15
mph and gusty at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is showing
clear skies over the CWA. Ridging building to the north and west
of the CWA will bring a NE flow aloft which will keep most of
Southwest Texas and Southeast New Mexico dry through Monday.
There could be an isolated storm over the Davis Mtns with the
elevated heat source and weak upslope flow. Temperatures will warm
to a little above normal for this time of year.

The pattern changes on Tuesday as an unusually strong upper low
parks itself over the Great Lakes Region. This will drive a cold
front into the Southern Plains. How far south is the big question.
It appears that the best chance of convection on Tuesday will be
north of the Pecos River. The flow aloft becomes NW by Wednesday.
Medium range models are hinting that an MCS will develop over New
Mexico and move SE into West Texas...but this is pretty far out in
the forecast. It will be cooler Tuesday but it looks like the
thermal ridge will edge east on Wednesday for warmer temps.
Wednesday night through Thursday the combination of a shortwave
dropping south through the Plains and outflow from convection
along the cold front will push the front south to near the Rio
Grande. This will bring the best chance of convection across the
CWA. Temperatures on Thursday could be as much as 10 degrees below
normal...with low temps Friday morning in the 60s...with lower 70s
along the Rio Grande Valley. It looks like the best chance of any
convection on Friday will be south and west of the Pecos River in
the vicinity of the front before it washes out.

Ridging will build back into the CWA from the south and west next
weekend. With the ridge centered over the Desert SW it will be dry
over the CWA with above normal temperatures.

Strobin

CLIMATE...Compared to the last 10 years the summer of 2014 in
Midland/Odessa has been relatively cool so far. Looking at the
number of 100 degree days through June Midland/Odessa has had only
7 days of 100 degrees or better. We have to go back to 2007 to
find fewer 100 degree days through June. On the other hand few
people will forget the hot summer of 2011! On average
Midland/Odessa has 16 days per year of 100 degrees or higher.

100 degrees days thru June...

Year       Midland Intl AP       Odessa
----       ---------------       ------
2004              6                 3
2005              6                 4
2006             18                17
2007              2                 2
2008             18                18
2009              9                12
2010             12                 9
2011             25                21
2012             15                11
2013             12                 8
2014              7                 6

Average          12                10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




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