Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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271
FXUS64 KMAF 210505
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1105 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR with increasing high clouds. Wind will be generally light
S/SW tonight then pick up out of the N/NW tomorrow.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 132 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
After a quiet night an upper level trough moving across southern
Canada will drag a dry cold front through the forecast area
during the day Tuesday. It will become breezy with winds generally
northerly at 15 to 25 mph and gusty behind the front. Temperatures
are still expected to climb to above normal values as sufficient
heating should take place ahead of the front with mostly clear
skies. The cooler day will be Wednesday (below normal) as cooler
surface high pressure builds into the region.

For Thanksgiving through the weekend the weather continues to
look dry with above normal temperatures developing as northwesterly
flow aloft transitions to northerly flow with an upper level
ridge building across the southwest United States.

FIRE WEATHER...
Northwest flow aloft will increase over the region today, and
increase further Tuesday as the flow becomes more northerly.
Temperatures will warm slightly above normal this afternoon, then 5-
10 degrees above Tuesday afternoon.  Southwest 20 foot winds will
increase to 10-20 mph over portions of the Southeast New Mexico
Plains this afternoon, while RHs dip to 10-15%.  Since Energy
Release Component-G (ERC-G) are normal to slightly above dryness,
and winds are marginally strong, will make a mention in the FWF
discussion. Winds will diminish in these areas this evening.

However late tonight, west to northwest winds will increase to 10-15
mph over SE NM ahead of an approaching cold front, and result in
poor recovery.  Recovery will be poor over all but the eastern
Permian Basin, but drying of fuels will be more pronounced over SE
NM.  Northwest winds will increase more across the forecast area
after daybreak Tuesday, push very dry air over the region, and along
with temperatures warming 5-10 degrees above normal, drop minimum
afternoon RHs to 8-15% areawide.  20 foot northwest winds of 15-20
mph sustained will be common ahead of the cold front, but will turn
abruptly to the north and increase to 20-25 mph sustained, with
gusts in some areas near 45 mph behind the front.  Despite there
being a period of 2-3 hours of critical conditions in a few
locations, will issue a Fire Danger Statement from late tonight over
SE NM, with near critical conditions spreading south over West Texas
by late morning/early afternoon, due to ERC-G dryness levels still
being normal to slightly above.  Winds will diminish around sunset
Tuesday, and alleviate fire concerns.

Temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal Wednesday, but
will bounce back above normal Thanksgiving Day.  Wind speeds will
not be strong enough for significant fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  73  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  75  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  80  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  74  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  65  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  73  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  71  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  74  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  74  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           39  77  35  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

72/27/72



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