Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 270528
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1228 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS has diminished across the area. VFR conditions and light
southeast winds expected the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
isolated/scattered thunderstorms developing over the CWA moving
generally south. Outflow boundaries from last nights convection
in the Panhandle and Northeast New Mexico Plains is helping serve
as a focus. This will be the theme for the next few days.

Water Vapor Imagery and High Density Winds shows that the
subtropical ridge is basically split in two...with one center over
the Great Basin and the other center over the Southeast US Coast.
There is a weak inverted trof over East TX basically trapped
between the two ridge centers. In this scenario...which shows
little change thru at least Thursday night...there will be
isolated/scattered thunderstorms across the CWA. The highest
probability will be in the higher terrain with upslope flow and
intense heating. But have widespread isolated pops everywhere else
due to boundaries which won`t mix out in the nearly homogeneous
atmosphere and are notoriously hard to predict. Temperatures will
be near to a degree or two above normal.

Starting Friday and continuing into early next week the ridge
center over the Great basin will build east thru the Southern
Plains with the deep layer flow becoming east to northeast. With
the deep layer east to northeast flow there will be good
upslope flow...mainly in the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mtns where
the best chance of convection will be. High temps will once again
be above normal (the theme for July, 2016!) with temps
approaching 100 in the Permian Basin and 100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  95  77  96 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       74  97  74  97 /  20  20  10   0
Dryden                         77  97  79  96 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  73  96  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 70  87  70  88 /  20  20  10  10
Hobbs                          71  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          65  88  65  89 /  20  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  95  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         76  95  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           76  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10


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