Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 241718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become elevated and gusty out of the southwest to west this
afternoon. Winds will decrease a little this evening and briefly become
more southerly early in the evening before switching back to the
west southwest. Winds will pick up in intensity out of the west
around 15z Tuesday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The 85h thermal ridge will bogart its way into the area today and
the core 27-29C 85h temps ensure that high temps will easily climb
into the M90s across SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos. A average mixed layer
(65h deep) wind of 30kts foretells a windy day across the same areas
including the GDP Mtns. By late today the a mtn wave will set up
across the GDP Mtns with the classic upshear tilted OMEGA couplet.
As such will opt issue a high wind warning from 20Z/24-03Z/26,
windiest conditions to occur on Tue. Thermal ridge will be farther
e on Tue. This will result in cooler temps across SE NM, but
warmer across the PB and Big Bend/Rio Grande. Wind/very windy
conditions are expected areawide Tue when an 85h speed max of
30-35kts extends e from Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM into all of the
PB. The average mixed layer wind will be near 35kts and advisory
level winds are likely in the corridor described above. As the
upper low passes to the n Wed AM an assocd cold front will move
thru bringing some relief from WRT temps, probably still windy
though. Warm/dry sector is eager to return and sets up Thur/Fri.
Fri will be again be especially warm, there will be wind too
along periods of high clouds on Tue and Fri. Similarly to Wed we
expect a cold front will follow Sat thus cooler next weekend. As
upper low passes by Sat a few high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be
possible in assocn with cold mid level temps on Sat.

FIRE WEATHER...
Today fire wx concerns are focused in the GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn
area where there will be a prominent low level thermal ridge with
85h winds (~5kft) of 25-30kts and where RFTI of 4-6 is forecast.
Roadside green-up does reduce roadside start potential, but IA
potential certainly increases today. Critical fire wx will expand
Tue into most of the PB and farther s into the Trans Pecos. Green-up
across the PB does mitigate fire wx concerns and precludes the
issuance of a watch for these areas. In the Trans Pecos there has
been some green-up, but not sure how strong it is? For now will
issue a Red Flag today for GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn area and a
watch for same areas on Tue. Basically for Tue strongest fire wx
will occur in area that has the best green-up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  62  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       95  62  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         87  60  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  62  94  63 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  57  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  60  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  49  88  54 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           94  61  94  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

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