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000
FXUS64 KMAF 150008
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
708 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014

.UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to expire the Red Flag Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Relative humidity values have been trending
upward and will continue to do so overnight while winds remain
below critical thresholds. Will hold onto a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms across portions of southeast New Mexico
and the Permian Basin as a weak surface boundary remains draped
near these areas and an upper disturbance approaches from the
west. Otherwise, only minor tweaks to the overnight forecast were
made.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mid/high clouds have moved into area ahead an upper disturbance in
wrn NM. Mid clouds may eventually increase to BKN overnight and
isold -TSRA can/t be ruled out toward morning, but PROBs are too
low to include in TAFs. Wind will increase Sat AM around 15Z and
moreso after 18 from the w and nw. A fast moving cold front with
very gusty winds will move into the area from the nw late
Saturday night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Pleasant weather across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this
afternoon with temperatures at the time of this discussion sitting
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Water vapor imagery across the CONUS
showed a split flow regime, with a potent shortwave trough located
over southern Arizona as well as a northern stream shortwave trough
located over the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of the Arizona trough, Pacific
moisture was evident streaming into our region in the form of mid and
high level clouds.

Interesting forecast ahead for this weekend, with models still
struggling to find a consensus. The shortwave trough located over
southern Arizona will continue its eastward trek towards our area
tonight, crossing West Texas and Southeast New Mexico during the day
Saturday. With sufficient mid-level moisture and weak isentropic
lift ahead of this shortwave trough, kept mention of showers and added
the potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms overnight into
tomorrow morning. Best chances for isolated thunderstorms are across
the northern Permian Basin as 850-700 mb lapse rates will be
conditionally unstable around 7-8 C/km with 100-300 J of MUCAPE also
in this layer.

As this disturbance pushes east of our area, anticipate a warm
Saturday with a lee surface trough developing in eastern New
Mexico. Gusty northwesterly winds will not only push drier air
into the area tomorrow, but will aid in additional adiabatic
warming. Because of this, have bumped temperatures up a few
degrees above guidance. Warm, dry, and windy conditions will mean
elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible across the
area tomorrow. Please see the fire weather discussion below for
additional details for both Saturday and Sunday.

The northern stream shortwave trough will dive south across the Great
Plains during the day on Saturday, overtaking with the southern stream
trough east of our forecast area Saturday night. The forecast for
the remainder of the weekend largely hinges on what happens after
this occurs and have based the forecast on the most likely
scenario according to model agreement. As the northern stream
trough dives south, it will send a strong cold front across the
Great Plains and into Southeast New Mexico Saturday evening
overnight into Sunday morning.

Sunday`s afternoon high temperatures will be cooler behind the front
(in the 50s and 60s), but the winds associated with the front will
be similar to what we saw Tuesday night as a strong isallobaric high
(with pressure rises near 12 mb/3 hr) dives south along the TX/NM
border. Areas of blowing dust will be a concern Saturday night
into Sunday before the pressure gradient relaxes. Rain chances
appear to be the highest with this system Saturday night into
Sunday morning as the trough digs south and pushes east. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible as it passes, as well as snow in
the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.

Beyond the weekend, temperatures will rebound into the beginning of
the week before another cold front drops into the area on
Tuesday/Wednesday and brings temperatures near seasonal normals.
Both the GFS/ECMWF have differing solutions as to the timing of the
front, so we`ll have to wait and see on the actual arrival. The rest
of the forecast appears dry with a pleasant end to the week for any
spring break plans.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will increase the next few days as generally
windy conditions prevail, and despite a cold front moving through
the region Saturday night/Sunday.  Marginally critical fire weather
conditions are still expected in the Guadalupe Mountains this
afternoon and evening, so the Red Flag warning will continue there
until 15/03Z.  Southerly 20 foot winds will allow low level moisture
to return to the area tonight, but only along and east of a Seminole
to Big Bend line.  Recovery will be fair to good further west.

An upper level storm system will move over the region Saturday with
the mid level flow increasing under it.  Expect most locations to
see 20 foot west to northwest winds of 20 mph or greater for several
hours as a result.  High temperatures will warm above normal, so
think a large part of the area could see critical fire weather
conditions Saturday afternoon as RH/s drop near or below 15 percent.
There is some uncertainty on how dry conditions will be so will
issue a Fire Weather Watch for the entire area at this time.  A
strong cold front will move south into the area Saturday night with
gusty northerly winds in it`s wake.  Recovery will be poor to fair
in most locations Saturday night, but some areas may receive a
little rain and have good recovery.  Critical fire weather
conditions will be possible in most locations Sunday as northerly
winds stay up through the day, and drier air behind the front drops
RH/s to 15 percent or below in most locations.  Will go ahead and
include the entire CWA in a Fire Weather Watch Sunday.  Although an
upper ridge begins to build over the area Monday, there will be a
fairly tight surface pressure gradient over the region.  Since
temperatures will warm above normal again, critical fire weather
conditions will be possible over most of the area Monday.  Westerly
flow aloft will prevail over the area Tuesday, which could again
result in critical fire weather conditions over most of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  78  40  58  /  20  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              49  78  41  58  /  20  20  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                47  79  39  61  /  10  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  54  87  50  67  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  82  42  60  /  10  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  70  35  55  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   44  76  36  57  /  20  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   40  71  33  56  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    48  78  41  58  /  20  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  48  78  42  59  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                    48  82  42  62  /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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