Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 231745
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1145 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of rain will gradually diminish at TAF sites this afternoon.
IFR/MVFR ceilings will improve through the afternoon making way
for VFR conditions as drier air begins to work its way into the
area and an upper level disturbance slides east of the area.
Surface winds will remain slightly breezy at TAF locations the
next couple hours before finally tapering off.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Tuesday...have canceled both the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe/Davis Mtns and the Winter
Weather Advisory for the Northern Permian Basin and parts of
Southeast New Mexico.

The cold front has made it almost to Presidio. Showers have
occurred overnight across the CWA north of the Davis Mtns. Due to
temps above freezing...even upstream well into the Texas Panhandle
have canceled the Winter Weather Advisory. Forecast soundings are
indc sfc temps above freezing. Bottom line is that the Boundary
Layer is too warm...and with most of the dew pts above freezing it
looks like any snow that mixes in will not accumulate. The only
exception is the Davis/Apache and Guadalupe Mtns where H85 temps
will be near if not slightly below freezing. In those places any
snow that does accumulate will be less than an inch and mainly on
grassy surfaces. Have canceled the High Wind Warning for the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns since the expected strong winds failed to
materialized per the Mt Locke/Mt Fowlkes/GDP obs. The VAD Wind
profile at MAF are also not indc very strong winds aloft. Winds
might increase...but will stay below High Wind criteria.

Showers will gradually decrease from the north today as the upper
trof moves east. After a cool day today and a cold night tonight
temps will slowly moderate on Wednesday as ridging moves overhead.
Temps will warm to 5-10 degrees above normal with dry weather on
Christmas Day with southwest/downslope winds. Temps will cool a
little on Friday ahead of a upper trof moving out of the Rockies.
This trof is fcst to deepen as it moves into the Plains...and will
drive a cold front south in the CWA over the weekend. Models are
not in sync with the timing of the front...so it will be difficult
to determine when...and what kind of precipitation to expect. Dry
weather will return next Monday with near normal temps before
another system is forecast to dig south into the Desert Southwest
next Tuesday.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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