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000
FXUS64 KMAF 102033
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
333 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated AFD to reflect preliminary point temps/PoPs for correct periods.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...

At least there`s something more interesting to write about today!
For now, isolated convection over the Davis Mountains should drift
off to the west and die off with loss of sensible heating. We`ll
see more of the same...and maybe a bit more down south...where an
inverted cold core trough (not by definition an "easterly wave"!)
will migrate westward across Coahuila and out over eastern
Chihuahua by Friday night. Temperatures tomorrow will be a bit
below normal as extensive cloud cover retards insolation. For
Saturday through Monday, temperatures will increase as drier air
moves westward and the subtropical ridge builds a bit to the
south. However, we should see isolated diurnal convection at best
over the mountains through the weekend.

Now things start to get interesting. Long-range models have locked
onto a solution where an anomalously strong upper low develops
over western Ontario in response to a likewise strong PNA pattern.
This upper low (if I hear one more time that this the return of
the "polar vortex" I`m gonna go 6K J/kg and no CIN on somebody) will
in turn drive a strong (for this time of year) modified cP air mass
south. But how far south? As things look right now and if you take
a weighted blend of the ECMWF against the GFS and also take into
consideration the NAEFS and GEFS, the front will hang up somewhere
across the Permian Basin. What this will mean (at least from where
we see right now) is that temperatures will fall to perhaps 10
degrees below climatology Tuesday through Thursday. With both the
NAEFS and GEFS indicating slightly higher moisture along this
boundary, obviously the chances for thunderstorms will increase
into the middle of next week.

Now let me caution everyone that this scenario is predicated on a
consensus blend of a lot of things that can go wrong.  Furthermore,
trying to predict the location of a front (especially this time
of year) five or six days out is almost ludicrous. However, as
this is such an anomalously strong system with a number of model
solutions agreeing on the big picture, there`s a bit more confidence
that, at a minimum, we`ll see an uptick in rain chances along with
a moderation of temperatures. Could this be a big rain event? Yes,
it`s possible. It`s also possible that west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico will miss out on some badly needed moisture. It`ll all
depend on where the front hangs up.  Stay tuned...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  88  68  91  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  88  71  93  /  10   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  90  67  91  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  71  88  70  91  /  10  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  87  68  91  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  83  61  84  /  10  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   65  89  64  89  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  82  61  82  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  88  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  69  88  71  92  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    70  94  72  95  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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