Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will transition to the southeast by this evening with
elevated winds for FST, MAF, and INK later this afternoon. Winds
will weaken out of the south overnight with low ceilings and
visibilities developing and moving across the area around 09z
tonight and moving out/dissipating around 16z tomorrow.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A persistent upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather
across the region, as above normal temperatures look to continue
through the next 7 days. Aside from the potential for diurnally
driven precipitation across higher terrain the next few
afternoons, the forecast remains dry until possibly next Thursday.

A cold front that pushed into the area last evening has made
little southward progression overnight, and is currently draped
across the central Permian Basin westward across Reeves and
Culberson counties. Temperatures early this morning still hanging
in the mid 50s to mid 60s for most of the area, and given moisture
along the front, areas of fog are expected to develop this
morning, mainly across portions of the Permian Basin and
southeastern New Mexico. The fog will dissipate by mid-morning,
with highs today expected to top out in the lower to middle 80s
for most of the area, with a few 90s possible through the Rio
Grande Valley. While under the influence of an upper ridge, most
convection is expected to be suppressed, however, there may be
some showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm or two this afternoon
across the favored higher elevations of the Davis Mountains. The
aforementioned front will lift north this afternoon, resulting in
a return to southerly flow which will continue through midweek
next week. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 50s, with a few
middle to upper 40s possible for higher terrain and northern Lea
county. As the ridge maintains its presence, temperatures will
remain well above normal the next several days, with a return to
highs in the 80s and 90s areawide Sunday through Wednesday, and
lows ranging from around 50 to around 60 degrees. Much of the area
is expected to remain dry as the dryline pushes east each
afternoon, and then retreats westward overnight, though given
strong daytime heating, have maintained the slight chance of
afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms Sunday across favored
higher terrain to the west, and on Monday across the Chisos
Mountains in the Big Bend Area.

Flow aloft will begin to transition to southwesterly on Wednesday
as a potent trough moving through the Great Basin will push the
ridge axis eastward. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the potential
for storms to develop along the dryline across eastern portions
of the forecast area Thursday evening ahead of the approaching
trough, though the ECMWF solution is much more bullish. As the
trough skirts north of the region on Friday, windy to very windy
conditions will be possible, along with cooler temperatures a bit
closer to normal. However, have not deviated too much from the
blended solution at this time, given run-to-run inconsistencies
that far out into the extended. Until then, mainly dry, very warm
weather will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  59  88  59 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       84  51  90  54 /  10   0  20  10
Dryden                         80  58  87  58 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  85  57  90  59 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  57  84  58 /  10   0  20  10
Hobbs                          81  52  86  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          83  45  83  45 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  58  87  59 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         82  58  87  59 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           85  55  90  56 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/



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