Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 131656
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at area terminals this afternoon and
tonight.  Southerly winds will increase around sunset, partially due
to a strengthening low level jet.  Expect IFR ceilings to develop
late tonight, if not MVFR visibility in fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

AVIATION...
Satellite shows IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBY has developed at HOB/GNC with
trend of developing farther swd. As such have TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBY
at TAF sites thru 15Z. Not much wind expected today but will
increase early this evening with LLJ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A couple more hot days before a strong cold front and a chance of
rain arrive this weekend.

Upper ridging aloft will continue to keep things very warm across
the area today and Saturday. High temperatures were above the
highest guidance on Thursday so expect upper 80`s and low 90`s to be
pretty common through Saturday. Subsidence will keep most locations
dry, but can`t rule out some isolated storms on the periphery of the
upper ridge across SE NM the next two afternoons.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will dig over the N. Rockies today and
move east across the Plains this weekend. This system will drag a
strong cold front through the region Saturday night. A moist axis
will set up in the mid levels across the area as the front moves
through. This along with Gulf moisture at the surface will be
sufficient to support showers and thunderstorms along the front
Saturday night. Rain will push south with the front, but a few post-
frontal showers are still possible across the area. Similar to our
last front, gusty northerly winds are expected behind the boundary.
A strong surface high along with intense CAA will push winds near
advisory criteria across parts of the area early Sunday morning. Gap
winds will develop behind the front through Guadalupe Pass so have
gone ahead with a High Wind Watch there. Winds will diminish late
Sunday as the surface high settles in over the area. Skies will
clear and NW flow aloft will keep mid levels dry and void of any
clouds overnight Sunday. This will allow for ideal radiational
cooling and cold temperatures Monday morning.

Upper ridging will build in from the west later next week so expect
slowly warming temperatures and dry conditions to return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  67  90  55 /   0   0   0  60
Carlsbad                       90  63  91  54 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                         90  67  91  62 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton                  91  65  91  56 /   0   0   0  40
Guadalupe Pass                 86  63  85  49 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                          88  62  88  49 /   0  10  10  50
Marfa                          88  56  87  53 /   0  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           90  66  91  55 /   0   0   0  50
Odessa                         89  66  90  54 /   0   0   0  50
Wink                           91  65  92  56 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$



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