Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 051121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

See aviation discussion below.


KMAF radar currently indicating scattered showers with VFR, MVFR
or IFR conditions at the various west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals. These varying conditions will continue for this
morning with showers diminishing. Prevailing VFR conditions are
expected by late morning at KMAF, KINK and KHOB and mid to late
afternoon at KPEQ, KFST, and KCNM.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/

Radar still shows widespread rain across much of southeastern New
Mexico and the Permian Basin, but rainfall amounts are diminishing
and the threat for flash flooding is abating so have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch a little early. Upper ridging will
briefly end rain chances this evening into Tuesday but a low over
southern California will move east along the U.S./Mexico border
bringing a return of rain chances beginning Wednesday. All models
remain in good agreement over the timing and track of the low
which will be near El Paso Thursday morning. Increasingly
southerly mid and upper level flow ahead of the low will draw
moisture into west Texas and eastern New Mexico allowing for
widespread rainfall. Confidence is high enough to warrant likely
PoPs for Days 3-5 which is unusual for our area. Models are also
showing the low becoming stationary and perhaps even retrograding
back to the west as a ridge builds over the northwestern states.
So not only is there a good chance for rain but the rain may
remain for a couple of days. This combined with PWATs again rising
to 1-1.5 inches could create another flash flood threat beginning
Wednesday and lasting into Friday for the entire area. There will
be some cooling associated with the arrival of the upper low but
it will mainly be due to increased cloud cover and rainfall, not
cold air advection.






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