Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 190135
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
835 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast to lower pops tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the storms have moved out of the area pushing into West
Central TX. May see some redevelopment over the region tonight so
have lowered pops but not removed them.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas area terminals through Tuesday afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible through mid-evening today generally
south of I-20 with chances too small to include in terminals. Any
thunderstorms that occur will be capable of producing variable and
gusty winds. Thunderstorms are expected to occur again Tuesday
afternoon, though mainly in the mountains. Through the overnight
hours, winds will be generally south to southeast at less than 12
knots across the area, though gusty near thunderstorms. Winds
will become more southerly on Tuesday and strengthen with south
winds around 15 knots in the Permian Basin area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shear axis is evident in water vapor imagery over west central
Texas into the Lower Trans Pecos and into Davis Mountains.  Showers
and thunderstorms have been developing within higher mid level theta
e air over west central Texas all morning in association with this
shear axis, while outflow from that activity appears to be spreading
higher mid level theta e air westward.  This seems to be the impetus
for showers and thunderstorms developing over the western Low
Rolling Plains, with additional convection poised to develop through
the afternoon over the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains, at least according to cumulus developing these areas in
the latest visible satellite imagery, and in the vicinity of a weak
surface trough south.  Think good heating, plenty of moisture
through the column and increasing upslope flow will foster
thunderstorm development into the evening in most of these areas.
Therefore, have increased PoPs for this afternoon and evening, but
particularly from the Davis Mountains, eastward into the Lower Trans
Pecos.  Think gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms, but
PWats of 1.5 to 2 inches over southwest Texas will make heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding the main concern.

Thunderstorm chances will continue the next few days as the ua ridge
currently near the Four Corners region never does really build back
over the area.  Instead, southerly flow aloft comes about over the
area by Tuesday, strengthens Wednesday and Thursday, and still hangs
around Friday as a broad ua trough encompasses much of the western
ConUS behind the main shortwave trough ejecting northeastward
through the Four Corners region Thursday.  Subtropical moisture will
be siphoned north/northeastward over the area during these days
between an ua ridge over the southeastern ConUS and the mentioned
western ua trough.  Therefore, have kept a chance of thunderstorms
going Tuesday through Friday, with the emphasis over the western
half of the forecast area.  Since PWats will rise to 1.5 to 2 inches
Wednesday and Thursday, later shifts will have to determine whether
a Flash Flood Watch will be necessary west of the Pecos River these
days since thunderstorms could train over these areas.  Backed away
from the hotter temperatures through the week, partially due to
models indicating the upper ridge will not build westward over the
region aggressively through late week, and due to the potential for
cloud cover and precipitation over the western half of the CWA.

Rain chances will continue over the western third or so of the
forecast area through next weekend as the ua ridge is still not
progged to build westward emphatically.  Will only keep temperatures
a few degrees above normal into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  91  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  93  74  95  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                69  94  70  94  /  10  20  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  76  97  75  96  /  30  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  91  71  91  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  85  64  82  /  20  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   65  90  65  91  /  10  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   60  86  61  84  /  30  30  30  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  93  72  94  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  70  91  72  93  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    70  96  72  96  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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