


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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026 FXUS64 KMAF 100514 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Temperatures will increase through Friday afternoon, when highs will average a couple of degrees above normal, and chances of rain decrease. - Chances of rain will begin increasing after Friday, coincident with a cooling trend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 An upper-level ridge of high pressure is hovering over northwestern Mexico and, with our region near its eastern edge. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough progresses from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Plains, dampening the ridge as it does so. At the surface, an area of high pressure over the Gulf continues to bring moisture out of the south and southeast. Conditions this evening look to remain dry for most, though some isolated showers and storms may develop within the Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin. Rain chances increase again late Thursday afternoon and evening. This a result of the upper trough generating sufficient lift to kick up a few showers/storms as it translates into the central Great Plains. At the moment, the best rain chances lie over southeast New Mexico, with PoPs of 10-20%. The HRRR and the NAMNST are hinting at a broken line of storms sweeping southeastward from central New Mexico overnight before falling apart as it approaches the Permian Basin early Friday morning. Should any storms become severe, the main threats will be frequent lightning and damaging winds. Otherwise, temperatures tonight and Thursday night are forecast to settle into the mid 60s/70s. Thursday`s highs will generally heat into the 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Friday, the upper ridge is forecast to cover the southern CONUS and areas south of the border, extending from Baja del Norte to the Bahamas. However, a col will be developing over central Texas as a trough digs through the Central Plains. This will create a shear zone aloft, resulting in increasing chances of precipitation. Over the weekend, a secondary trough is forecast to dig south into the Southern Plains, and the col is forecast to develop farther west over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Best chances look to be Saturday night, but the col/synoptic pattern will persist through next week. Thursday or Friday night, PWATs begin increasing, w/NAEFS ensembles increasing them to 1.5 std devs or so above normal Saturday night, above the 90th percentile. These parameters are not quite as tropical as what occurred during the past couple of weeks, but the potential for appreciable QPF continues. Even so, NBM POPs may be just a bit overdone past Saturday evening. As would be expected, the col will have a moderating effect on temperatures throughout the long term. In fact, Friday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast, but highs will only average a couple of degrees above normal. As the col develops west through the weekend, highs will gradually decrease, to 5-10 F below normal by Monday afternoon, and only increasing slightly Tuesday/Wednesday. Unfortunately, a recurring LLJ each night will promote mixing. This will combine with debris cloud to retard radiational cooling, resulting in uncomfortably warm overnight lows remaining at or above normal. NBM wind speeds throughout the extended are too low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 VFR conditions and light winds will continue the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 94 74 92 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 71 98 72 92 / 10 10 10 30 Dryden 72 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 72 99 73 96 / 0 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 71 93 69 87 / 10 10 10 40 Hobbs 69 94 69 89 / 10 10 10 30 Marfa 64 93 66 89 / 0 30 30 60 Midland Intl Airport 73 95 73 92 / 0 0 10 20 Odessa 72 94 73 91 / 0 0 10 20 Wink 72 99 73 93 / 0 10 10 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...10