Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 162137
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
337 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

After low clouds and patchy fog this morning, sunny skies have
returned across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, with near to
just above normal highs this afternoon ranging from the middle 60s
north to 80s through the Rio Grande Valley. Lows tonight will
once again be above normal, in the middle 40s to middle 50s for
most. An upper trough moving ashore from the Pacific Northwest
into the Northern Rockies will result in the development of a lee
trough across the area tomorrow, along with increasing westerly
to southwesterly winds. Given the downsloping winds and favorable
location of an 850mb thermal ridge across the region, near record
and record highs in the 80s and lower 90s are expected areawide.
Midland`s current forecast high of 88 degrees tomorrow afternoon
will easily beat the record for November 17th, which stands at
84 degrees, originally set back in 1933, and tied in 1981. The
combination of strong winds as well as significantly above normal
temperatures will also result in elevated fire weather conditions
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the Guadalupe Mountains and
Southeast New Mexico Plains.

A big change will arrive on Saturday as a strong cold front moves
through the region, associated with the aforementioned upper
trough which will deepen as it moves eastward across the Northern
Plains. There continues to be good agreement regarding the timing
of the front, which is progged to move into Southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Saturday morning, and quickly
progress southward to the Rio Grande by late afternoon. The result
will be a return to near/below normal temperatures for most of
the area, with highs ranging from the upper 50s north to the
70s/80s through the Rio Grande Valley. Given dry antecedent
conditions, no precipitation is expected with the front, though it
will be accompanied by gusty north/northeasterly winds through
Saturday afternoon. By Saturday evening, winds will diminish as
high pressure settles into the region behind the front. Light
winds and clear skies will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions, with lows Saturday night/Sunday morning expected to
drop below normal, ranging from around 30 degrees north to the
lower 40s south. Sunday`s temperatures will also remain below
normal in the 50s and 60s, with the warmest temperatures expected
through the Rio Grande Valley.

Thereafter, dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail, with
temperatures moderating back toward normal Monday and Tuesday. A
weak cold front Wednesday will result in a brief cool down, but
otherwise, temperatures will remain close to normal through next
week. Given limited moisture return at the surface as well as dry
flow aloft, no precipitation is expected across Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas through the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  88  52  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  86  52  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         55  89  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  91  54  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  79  50  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  84  49  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          41  83  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           55  88  53  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  88  53  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           47  90  51  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84



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