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000
FXUS64 KMAF 022314
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty W-NW sfc winds will quickly decrease this evening, probably
before 01Z. SW-W winds mostly less than 10kts thru remainder of the
night. Similar gusty conditions Tue PM with w winds of 20G30kts.
Otherwise VFR wx will be the rule.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2013/

DISCUSSION...

Fairly warm, tranquil weather through Wednesday before a sharp
change to much colder temperatures occurs Thursday.

Current mid-level NW flow regime will transition to more zonal
Tuesday and then southwesterly mid to late week as a large upper
trough digs into the West. With less high clouds and a light
westerly, downslope component to the wind, temperatures have been
able to warm into the 70`s already this afternoon. Expect more of
the same Tuesday, but with a few more high cirrus streaming across
the area.

Winds still look to increase over the Guadalupe Mountains Tuesday as
a mountain wave signature sets up in the westerly flow aloft. The
questions are how strong are the winds going to be and how long will
they last? Wind speed has lessened with the newest 12Z guidance and
models are showing the possibility of high clouds over the region
both Tuesday and Wednesday. There should be enough breaks in the
clouds to allow some mixing to occur each afternoon. Fcst soundings
on the NAM mix down 750 mb winds of 35 to 40 kts at KGDP Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday. It does look like there will be a sizable
gap in the strong winds overnight Tuesday as the atmosphere
decouples before winds increase again late Wednesday morning. To
follow with the above reasoning, will upgrade the high wind watch
to a warning and split it to include Tuesday 11 AM to 8 PM MST and
Wednesday 8 AM to 8 PM MST. A wind advisory may also be needed for
some of the adjacent plains Wednesday afternoon.

There is relatively low confidence in the rest of the forecast with
regard to the strong cold front and any wintry precipitation. Models
continue to struggle with the timing and strength of the front. With
large run to run consistency, the GFS is the slowest and brings the
front into the northeast Permian Basin by noon Wednesday. It then
hangs it up there, and finally pushes it through Thursday afternoon.
The NAM and ECMWF are very similar in that they diurnally hang the
front up across the Big Country during the day Wednesday and drive
it through Thursday morning. Will side more with the ECMWF and NAM
for this forecast with the possibility of an even earlier fropa
Wednesday if the front keeps moving. This makes the temperature
forecast very tricky both Wednesday and Thursday with a large bust
potential. Will keep things warm Wednesday with steady or falling
temperatures Thursday.

Lift and isentropic upglide will increase along the cold front
Thursday resulting in showers developing over most of the CWA. The
air may even be cold enough for some freezing rain to mix in across
the northern Permian Basin. Another round of precipitation will
arrive Thursday night as the cold air is deepening. Will not get too
fancy with precip type given all the model variability. Fcst
soundings indicate mostly a freezing rain/sleet event along and
north of the Pecos River with some snow possible across the Western
Low Rolling Plains. Precipitation should end from west to east early
Friday as the large upper trough moves across the country.

Temperatures will stay well below normal Friday into the weekend
with lows in the teens possible Saturday morning.

Hluchan

Fire WX...

Westerly winds will cause minimum afternoon humidities to drop into
the low teens from southeastern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos of
west Texas on Tuesday. Wind speeds and humidities may briefly reach
Red Flag criteria, but the fire danger index should be below
criteria thanks to recent precipitation in the area so a warning is
not anticipated at this time. Local fire officials should still be
alert to these conditions though as some erratic movement is
possible on any fires that start. Winds will be stronger on
Wednesday though humidities will not drop below 20 percent.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$