Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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034
FXUS64 KMAF 271854
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
154 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Currently under brief ridging aloft but this will give way to a
series of approaching upper troughs that will bring the possibility
of storms.  The first trough extending from the NW down across the
Great Basin today develops into a cut off low tonight over the 4
corners region.  This low will slowly wobble across NM Tuesday
passing over the Panhandle on Wednesday.  High pressure returns
behind it before another strong low drifts down out of the NW
Thursday moving across AZ Friday and Saturday finally reaching Far W
TX Sunday.  As long as a cut off low is west of the area there will
be the possibility of storms.

Temperatures will remain above normal this week and mainly in the
80s.  Cooler start to the morning as a weak front moved through
overnight... had some readings in the 30s across northern CWA and at
Marfa.  Next front looks to move through Wednesday night/Thursday
morning.

Have dewpts in the 20s and 30s today and need an increase in low
level moisture before can expect storms to develop.  May briefly see
dewpts in the 50s return Tuesday morning before quickly getting
blown east as the dryline moves east.  At this time not looking like
will get the moisture to return Tuesday night as dryline does not
come back.  Will be dry and breezy behind the dryline.  May also see
high wind through the mountains Tuesday... will continue the High
Wind Watch Tuesday for the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.

Some models develop precip Tuesday ahead of the main event others do
not.  It does appear main storm event will develop late... but may
be east of the area.  SWODY2 has a slight risk for eastern counties
but latest model runs indicate most of the storms may be east of
this area.  Based on latest qpf rain chances for this area are not
looking good for Tuesday/Tuesday night.  Have lowered pops but not
remove them... later shifts may need to lower pops even more.  Best
chance of rain will be for the counties of Scurry... Mitchell...
Reagan... and Terrell.  Will have another chance of storms over the
weekend with the next cut off low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon and evening
along and west of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line. As an upper level
storm system approaches New Mexico Tuesday afternoon the associated
surface dryline will sharpen. 20 foot winds should equal or exceed
20 mph in many areas in the watch area Tuesday afternoon as the gradient
increases. Min rh/s are a bit more uncertain however as considerable
mid and high level clouds could increase Tuesday afternoon in the watch
area as the upper level low approaches. This increase in clouds could
limit the duration that min rh/s reside at or below 15 percent. Further
east across the rest of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, confidence
is high that large scale lift ahead of the low should limit duration of
min rh/s below 15 percent.

More uncertainty exists on Wednesday as the slow moving upper level
storm system passes by to the north across the southern High Plains.
Again, 20 foot winds should equal or exceed 20 mph across southeast
New Mexico and much of west Texas. Again, the duration of min rh/s
residing at or below 15 percent is problematic as some of the guidance
is indicating a cooler and more moist southerly track to the upper low.
As such will hold off on adding any headlines at this time. Will continue
to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  82  49  75 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       52  77  47  71 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         60  86  54  80 /   0  10  40  10
Fort Stockton                  56  85  51  75 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 53  67  47  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  75  45  66 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          41  78  37  68 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  82  49  75 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         57  81  49  73 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           52  82  48  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

12/72



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