Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 271854
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
154 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Currently under brief ridging aloft but this will give way to a
series of approaching upper troughs that will bring the possibility
of storms. The first trough extending from the NW down across the
Great Basin today develops into a cut off low tonight over the 4
corners region. This low will slowly wobble across NM Tuesday
passing over the Panhandle on Wednesday. High pressure returns
behind it before another strong low drifts down out of the NW
Thursday moving across AZ Friday and Saturday finally reaching Far W
TX Sunday. As long as a cut off low is west of the area there will
be the possibility of storms.
Temperatures will remain above normal this week and mainly in the
80s. Cooler start to the morning as a weak front moved through
overnight... had some readings in the 30s across northern CWA and at
Marfa. Next front looks to move through Wednesday night/Thursday
Have dewpts in the 20s and 30s today and need an increase in low
level moisture before can expect storms to develop. May briefly see
dewpts in the 50s return Tuesday morning before quickly getting
blown east as the dryline moves east. At this time not looking like
will get the moisture to return Tuesday night as dryline does not
come back. Will be dry and breezy behind the dryline. May also see
high wind through the mountains Tuesday... will continue the High
Wind Watch Tuesday for the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Some models develop precip Tuesday ahead of the main event others do
not. It does appear main storm event will develop late... but may
be east of the area. SWODY2 has a slight risk for eastern counties
but latest model runs indicate most of the storms may be east of
this area. Based on latest qpf rain chances for this area are not
looking good for Tuesday/Tuesday night. Have lowered pops but not
remove them... later shifts may need to lower pops even more. Best
chance of rain will be for the counties of Scurry... Mitchell...
Reagan... and Terrell. Will have another chance of storms over the
weekend with the next cut off low.
Will continue the Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon and evening
along and west of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line. As an upper level
storm system approaches New Mexico Tuesday afternoon the associated
surface dryline will sharpen. 20 foot winds should equal or exceed
20 mph in many areas in the watch area Tuesday afternoon as the gradient
increases. Min rh/s are a bit more uncertain however as considerable
mid and high level clouds could increase Tuesday afternoon in the watch
area as the upper level low approaches. This increase in clouds could
limit the duration that min rh/s reside at or below 15 percent. Further
east across the rest of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, confidence
is high that large scale lift ahead of the low should limit duration of
min rh/s below 15 percent.
More uncertainty exists on Wednesday as the slow moving upper level
storm system passes by to the north across the southern High Plains.
Again, 20 foot winds should equal or exceed 20 mph across southeast
New Mexico and much of west Texas. Again, the duration of min rh/s
residing at or below 15 percent is problematic as some of the guidance
is indicating a cooler and more moist southerly track to the upper low.
As such will hold off on adding any headlines at this time. Will continue
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 58 82 49 75 / 10 20 20 10
Carlsbad 52 77 47 71 / 0 0 0 20
Dryden 60 86 54 80 / 0 10 40 10
Fort Stockton 56 85 51 75 / 0 10 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 53 67 47 62 / 0 0 0 10
Hobbs 49 75 45 66 / 0 0 0 20
Marfa 41 78 37 68 / 0 0 0 10
Midland Intl Airport 58 82 49 75 / 10 10 10 10
Odessa 57 81 49 73 / 10 10 10 10
Wink 52 82 48 74 / 0 0 0 10
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.