Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240400
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1000 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, as post-trough
subsidence leads to CAVU conditions by sunrise. Sfc flow will back
to SW over the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A wintry mix of precipitation continues to wind down and shift south
and east as the trough axis shifts east of the area, though winds
over far southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin have
increased, with gusts up to 40 to 50KT reported this afternoon in
northern and central Lea county and northwestern Gaines county.
There is a Wind Advisory in effect for these locations until 00Z
this evening, when gusts are expected to diminish.

Clearing skies and continued cold advection tonight will result in
quite cold temperatures overnight, with lows dropping to the 20s
across most of the area, and coldest conditions expected on the
Marfa Plateau where the low should bottom out in the middle teens.
Weak ridging will develop over the area on Wednesday and Thursday as
today`s trough lifts toward the northeast, allowing temperatures to
moderate into the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday, and then warm to
the 60s and perhaps even a few spots in the low 70s on Christmas
Day. The warming trend will be short-lived, however, as another
trough is expected to swing through the region, accompanied by a
surface cold front this weekend. Temperatures over the weekend will
once again drop below normal, and given there will be moisture
accompanying this system, a wintry mix of precipitation is possible
over the weekend. Differences in timing of the front and cold air
still exist between different guidance, however, thus, have
maintained the slight chance/chance pops during the Friday
night-Saturday night time frame, with the best shot of snow Saturday
night when temperatures drop into the 20s area-wide and before the
trough shifts east of the area.

A high-amplitude positively-tilted upper trough is progged to move
through the region by next Tuesday-Wednesday, with guidance
indicating very strong cold air advection behind a potent cold
front, which could spell our first real cold blast of this winter
season. Thus, have sided with the cooler ECMWF guidance, though have
held back on any mentionable PoPs for the time being.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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