Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 152019
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
219 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures today will give way to much cooler
temperatures Friday behind a cold front.  We will also see the best
chance of rain we`ve seen in awhile, especially north of Interstate
20 Friday and Friday night.  Southwest flow aloft will persist over
the region for most of the next 7 days as an upper trough over the
intermountain west ejects eastward in the next couple of days, but
becomes reinforced as another upper trough deepens over the west
again by early next week.  Mid level winds will be strong enough
over the Guadalupe Mountains through early this evening to warrant
the continuation of the High Wind Warning there until this evening.
Although wind speeds are expected to be in the low end of the
criteria, westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph sustained, and gusts around
60 mph will be possible.

Subtropical mid and upper level moisture will be prevalent over the
area as the southwest flow aloft provides a steady feed off the
Pacific Ocean.  A series of shortwave troughs will eject
northeastward over northern reaches of the forecast area through
Saturday, with the RRQ of a 160+kt h25 jet providing additional lift
for precipitation development.  A cold front will move south into
the area Friday morning with light rain possibly breaking out over
Southeast New Mexico ahead of the boundary, and rain chances
continuing during the day Friday mainly in and near the Guadalupe
Mountains, and adjacent portions of Southeast New Mexico, in a low
level upslope regime.  The best chance of rain will be Friday night
as a shortwave trough combines with the above mentioned RRQ of the
strong h25 jet, but still mainly north of Interstate 20.  A few
locations could see 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rainfall over Southeast
New Mexico Friday night.  The amount of precipitation will likely
aid surface temperatures staying above freezing, and since the
atmospheric column does not appear overly cold, will keep
precipitation all rain.  Rain chances will decrease Saturday as the
first ua jet heads east, as does the mid level shortwave trough.

Another, weaker h25 jet, and attendant mid level shortwave trough,
will translate northeastward over the region late Saturday
night/Sunday.  Will keep a slight chance of rain going Saturday
night, and a low end chance Sunday, for these features.  Overall,
amounts/coverage will be less than Friday.  The airmass over the
region will modify Saturday, with temperatures warming well above
normal Sunday and Monday.  As the next ua trough approaches, a
dryline will sharpen up over the eastern Permian Basin, if not a
little further eastward, Sunday through Tuesday.  Unless something
changes with the upper trough in the next few days, particularly it
becoming deeper, any rain chances will likely be relegated to
locations east of our forecast area.  A strong cold front will drop
south into the area Tuesday night in the wake of the passing ua
trough, but chilly temperatures may only last through Thursday
morning as west to southwest flow aloft persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  55  41  68 /  10  10  60  20
Carlsbad                       54  55  37  67 /  20  40  70  10
Dryden                         58  69  50  72 /   0  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  50  58  45  69 /  10  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 44  50  41  60 /  10  70  70  10
Hobbs                          42  46  37  66 /  20  20  70  10
Marfa                          45  63  37  69 /  10  10  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  55  41  69 /  10  10  50  20
Odessa                         47  53  41  69 /  10  10  50  20
Wink                           50  56  39  70 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

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