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090
FXUS64 KMAF 220502
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Persistence rules. VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under
upper-lvl ridging and return flow. Forecast soundings develop a
4-5 kft agl cu field by late morning. Convection will be possible,
mainly wrn terminals, and we`ll insert as needed, as models are in
disagreement on timing/placement.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

Scattered areas of convection across the region have begun to
diminish in coverage this evening. Still have TS near HOB and INK at
21/23Z but not expecting any activity to hang on beyond sunset. Will
continue TEMPO thunder at all but CNM and MAF through 22/02Z. Any
thunderstorm that affects the terminals will result in brief heavy
rainfall, likely reducing visibility. Will continue to monitor radar
trends and amend if needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
at all terminals through this TAF period with the potential repeat
of thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
There is an increase in convection this afternoon over what was
seen yesterday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing mainly west of the Pecos River. Some of this activity
will move northeast into the western Permian Basin possibly making
it as far as Midland/Odessa. Being diurnally driven, these showers
will continue through early this evening before diminishing with
lightning and brief heavy rain/local flooding the main threats.

The upper pattern changes little through the weekend so more of
the same can be expected with afternoon highs in the upper 90s
and scattered convection most prevalent west of the Pecos.
Beginning Tuesday, models are indicating that the upper high
currently over the Central Plains will move south and increase
slightly in strength. This could cause convective coverage to
decrease and allow high temps to nudge upward a few degrees the
remainder of the week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  76  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       96  72  95  73 /  20  20  30  20
Dryden                         97  77  97  77 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  93  72 /  30  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 84  63  83  65 /  30  30  50  30
Hobbs                          93  69  93  70 /  20  10  20  20
Marfa                          86  65  84  63 /  50  30  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           97  74  96  73 /  10  10  20  10
Odessa                         97  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  10
Wink                           98  74  97  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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