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000
FXUS64 KMAF 091128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Mid clouds will continue to move up from the SW and spread across
the area.  Light north wind this morning will slowly come around
to the south during the day as leeside trough deepens.  Radar has
been indicating light showers overnight west of the Pecos River but
no reports of rain reaching the surface.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar imagery shows light rain showers west of the Pecos.
These showers are in association with an upper level low pressure
system presently moving across portions of northern Mexico.  This
upper system is expected to continue to track well south of our area
before lifting into portions of the Lower Rio Grande Valley/Deep
South Texas late Monday.  The main result of this system for our
weather will be some increased cloud cover and low order rain
chances over portions of southwest Texas today and tomorrow.

Sunday appears to be more of a transition day for our area. Surface
high pressure building into the area behind yesterday`s cold front
will begin to shift east of the area this afternoon. In addition...
intensifying surface low pressure over the Northern and Central
High Plains will result in return southwest surface flow over our
northern areas by later this afternoon. This trend will continue
on Monday as southwest downslope surface winds reestablish
themselves area wide...resulting in temperatures warming into the
70s across the area. Continued downslope winds on Tuesday will
result in high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Fire
weather potential exists for areas of Texas west of the Pecos on
Tuesday. Please see the fire weather discussion below.

Current models show cold fronts making their way into our area
late Tuesday and again next Sunday. However, we are certainly
beginning to see a moderation of temperatures as we make our way
towards spring. We still have potential for freezing
temperatures...such as Wednesday morning and especially this
Thursday morning. However, overall this week looks to be
comfortably warm. Little of no rain is anticipated with these frontal
passages.

One change of note this forecast period.  GFS winds appear overdone
on Tuesday.  I have trended wind forecasts closer to the NAM
solution which while still breezy...looks more reasonable.

FIRE WEATHER...
After a recent cold front expect temperatures to begin to recover
today.  With a leeside trough setting up over SE CO look for very
dry air to be pulled into the western part of the area beginning
Monday.  As this low moves SE Tuesday the wind across the area will
become westerly.  This will push dry air across all of W TX and SE
NM with minimum RH below 15 percent areawide.  The higher elevations
and adjacent plains may see 20ft winds reach 20 mph by afternoon...
when combined with high fire danger may result in critical fire
weather conditions across the West.  Will issue a Fire Weather
Watch Tuesday from the Guadalupe Mtns southward to the Davis Mtns
and include the Marfa Plateau and portions of the Trans Pecos.  A
strong cold front late Tuesday/early Wednesday will end fire
weather concerns for a few days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Guadalupe Mountains...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$