Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280538
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the period.
Once again there will be scattered TS across the area this
afternoon and evening but will not put most TAF sites at this
time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move
through. Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough
to produce scattered thunderstorms. There will also be increased
moisture to tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This
amount of moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall
for parts of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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