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308
FXUS64 KMAF 201906
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
206 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level flow will back to the sw by late today and with deep
mixing the dry air observed on 12Z MAF sounding is materializing
with surface Td falling into the 40-50 range as far as e the
central PB. Today best convective potential will be found across
the far SE PB and the Lower Trans Pecos where level moisture will
remain. Despite 7h-5h LR`s only around 6.5 C/KM CAPES are
forecast to be around 1500 J/KG with weak shear in the Lower Trans
Pecos. CINH is breakable per NAM12 and high resolution models do
focus in on Lower Trans Pecos today and a strong storm or two is
possible. Thur mid level flow will continue to back and s-sw 7h
wind indicate low level moisture will hold much farther w, CAPEs
above 1500 J/KG across a larger area. As such diurnally driven
convection will be possible, limited to slight chance largely due
to the absence of a shrtwv trof, a few strong storms are possible.
Hot temperatures will continue thru Thur. Noticeably cooler by
Fri/Sat per height falls/increased moisture/se winds. The best
chance of storms will be farther w into SE NM Fri PM and possibly
across the Trans Pecos late Fri night/Sat AM on periphery of
height falls/cooling mid level temps/3h jet/increasingly rich mid
level theta-e ridge. SW mid level flow will persist thru the
weekend and said theta-e ridge axis will remain in place. This
favors SE NM and Trans Pecos for shower/storms, some with heavy
rain per ensemble PWs of +1 to +2 standard deviations with periods
of flash flooding possible. Even though there may be precip
across the PB Fri-Sun the better chance will arrive Mon and
persist into Tue when 3h jet ejects across the area and when a
cold front will likely be moving s into the CWFA.

&&

.Fire Weather...
RFD wx is working out well across SE NM/GDP Mtns where RHs have
fallen to around 15 pct in the plains and where local wind in the
GDP Mtns are gusting to 45 mph. RH is expected o above 15 pct in
all areas by 7 PM MDT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  96  71  92 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       66  96  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                         74  96  74  93 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  72  96  71  94 /  20  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 66  88  67  88 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                          65  94  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          60  90  60  90 /  10  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  72  92 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         74  96  71  92 /  10  20  20  10
Wink                           70  98  70  95 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$