993
FXUS64 KMAF 110526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- Temperatures will increase a touch Friday afternoon compared to
  Thursday. Highs will average a couple of degrees above normal.

- A wet and cooler weather pattern is in store beginning this
  weekend lasting through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge centered over Baja
del Norte, and extending ENE through the Panhandles.  To the north,
a shortwave is moving through the Rockies, convection is ongoing in
Colorado due to this feature, w/CAMs developing a line down into
southwest New Mexico by 00Z this evening, some of which may get into
Southeast New Mexico overnight.  Otherwise, a 40+kt LLJ is set to
recur overnight, keeping mixing in play and negating radiational
cooling under mostly clear skies to keep overnight lows 4-5 F above
normal.

Friday, the shortwave digs ESE into the Central Plains, increasing
chances of convection across the northwest during the afternoon.
PWATs are forecast to be in the gutter....up to 2 std devs below
normal...and forecast soundings suggest a damaging wind threat will
be present.  Friday will be by far the warmest day this forecast,
but highs will only be ~ 2-4 F above normal, a testament to what
they otherwise would be if the shortwave was absent and the ridge
more pronounced.

Friday night looks to be another uncomfortably warm night, as a
similar LLJ to tonight develops. However, lows may be a degree or
so warmer due to more cloud cover. Convection may persist
northeast due to the shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Upper-level ridging is expected to set up over the eastern and
western US this weekend, with a trough wedged in between over the
Great Plains. Lower heights due to troughing looks to bring
cooler temperatures and increased rain chances through much of the
long term period. Beginning Saturday, highs are forecast to top
out in the 80s and 90s. Locations near and along the Rio Grande
are still expected to reach beyond the century mark Saturday
afternoon. However, triple digit highs will be almost non-existant
through the remainder of the extended forecast. The good news
keeps coming in the form of areawide rain chances as surface high
pressure over the Gulf steers ample moisture in our direction.
This will work in tandem with several rounds of disturbances
rolling through to provide almost daily rain chances. The best
shot at rain looks to be in the Permian Basin Saturday afternoon
and evening, as a disturbance swings in over the Texas Panhandle.
Depending on rainfall totals and rates, flash flooding could
become the main weather threat within the coming days.
Nevertheless, with any luck, we may continue to chip away at our
drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. A few remnant
showers/thunderstorms from a decaying complex of storms may make it
to HOB in the next couple of hours, so have included a PROB30 for
that site. Southeasterly winds continue at all terminals, becoming
gustier later this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  73  91  70 /   0   0  20  60
Carlsbad                 99  71  91  68 /  10  10  30  60
Dryden                   97  74  95  75 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton           100  73  96  72 /  10  10  20  50
Guadalupe Pass           93  68  85  64 /  10  10  30  50
Hobbs                    94  69  89  67 /  10  10  30  70
Marfa                    93  65  89  63 /  30  30  50  60
Midland Intl Airport     95  73  91  71 /   0  10  20  60
Odessa                   94  73  90  70 /   0  10  20  60
Wink                     99  73  93  70 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13