Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 291705
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See public discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A strong upper level storm system will move across the region this
afternoon and early this evening bringing with it tempo MVFR ceilings
with rain showers through 00z. VFR conditions with decreasing
clouds are expected overnight. Winds will generally be northwesterly
at 15 to 25 mph and gusty through this evening with diminishing
winds after midnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1048 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Will update the zones to lower high temperatures this afternoon
based on latest trends. Will issue a wind advisory for this
afternoon for the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Presidio
Valley based on incoming data. Tweaked winds.

updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings will affect KCNM and KHOB, but it does not appear
the other terminals will be affected by these lower ceilings.
Gusty northwest to west winds will affect all area terminals
today.  There may be a relative lull in winds later this morning
and even during during the afternoon.  However, strong, gusty
northwest winds will likely affect all sites by this evening as
colder air pushes south over the region.  VFR conditions will
prevail for most of this time, if not all.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

Big changes are on the way after a couple of very warm days. An
intense upper trough is gathering strength to our west while a
strong cold front pushes south across SE NM and the Permian
Basin. Temperatures have fallen quickly into the 40`s and 50`s
behind the front with 70`s still ahead of the boundary. Rich low
level moisture is also pooling ahead of the front as well with
dewpoints in the 60`s. A few showers and storms have developed
this morning, mostly along and behind the cold front. We haven`t
seen much out of this with only a few hundredths of an inch so
far. Models have struggled with the cold front and precipitation
this morning, but the higher resolution models are doing a bit
better. The front will likely slow down later this morning as
pressures fall ahead of the upper system. The front will have a
major effect on our forecast high temperatures today. Have lowered
temperatures over the northern half of the area, but there is a
large bust potential depending on how far the front travels. More
showers and storms are possible this afternoon as a disturbance
rounds the base of the upper trough and crosses our area.

Another complication today is the high wind threat across the
Guadalupe Mountains. The front being in the general area may lead to
periodic wind direction changes here. 700 mb winds over the
mountains will veer from the west to the northwest this afternoon
which will temper the threat of high winds in NM. The window of
strongest westerly winds look to be only a couple of hours before
veering so will remove the NM zones from the watch and upgrade to a
warning over the TX zones. Once the front moves through, strong gap
winds are expected to commence through Guadalupe Pass.

Much colder air will spill south behind the front tonight with
lows reaching freezing across parts of the region by Sunday
morning. Heavy snow is falling across E NM and more is expected
today across the TX Panhandle. CAA off the snow will allow
temperatures to reach freezing over a larger area than earlier
expected. The coldest temperatures will be over SE NM and the
higher terrain of W TX where lows will fall into the upper 20`s
and low 30`s. Some of these locations have started to green-up so
will opt to issue a Freeze Watch. Elsewhere, temperatures will
fall into the 30`s and 40`s which will near record lows. The
record April 30th for Midland International is 41 degrees set in
1960.

Cooler temperatures will stick around Sunday before westerly mid
level flow brings hot conditions back to the area Monday and
Tuesday. Another strong cold front will head our way mid week
dropping temperatures below normal once again. Unfortunately,
very little in the way of precipitation is expected with this
system.

FIRE WEATHER...

A very complicated forecast is ongoing with a cold front moving
south through the area this morning.  However, westerly winds will
make a comeback later this morning and afternoon, and push dry air
over southwest Texas.  Think there could be critical fire weather
conditions for 1-3 hours along and west of a Kermit to Big bend line
between 29/18Z and 30/02Z.  However, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms could develop over southwest Texas as an upper level
storm system approaches the region.  This could raise RHs, but also
result in isolated dry lightning strikes, especially in the Davis
Mountains this afternoon.  Since it is uncertain how long the
duration of any critical fire weather conditions will be, will issue
a Fire Danger statement for these areas.  There will be an abrupt
wind shift over these areas tonight as the cold front pushes
aggressively south, but with much cooler temperatures and higher RH.
Recovery will be good areawide Sunday morning.  Fire weather
concerns could return by Sunday afternoon though as westerly flow
aloft may allow for a rapid warmup, and push dry air back over most
of the forecast area.  In addition, temperatures will soar well
above normal Monday.  The only thing that will prevent critical
conditions on Monday and Tuesday will be 20 foot winds.  It appears
most locations may stay below 20 mph sustained both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  69  47  84 /  40  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  72  44  85 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         46  79  51  89 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  40  74  52  88 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  66  50  77 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          33  67  43  81 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          32  70  36  81 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           40  71  48  85 /  30  10   0   0
Odessa                         39  70  48  85 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           37  73  45  86 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

&&

$$

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