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000
FXUS64 KMAF 070514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1113 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds are clearing from the east with MAF now in the clearing.
Uncertainty remains in how far west this clearing will get.  Light
patchy freezing drizzle is expected to develop across the area
overnight and continue impacting the area into the afternoon.  Low
ceilings are expected to return to MAF by 18z Saturday.  Winds will
be out of the east through the period with a few gusts possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2013/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Clouds are beginning to dissipate across the northeast Permian
Basin, and the clearing may spread further southwest affecting MAF,
HOB, and INK this evening.  Low ceilings of MVFR to LIFR are again
expected tonight with patchy light freezing drizzle beginning to
develop and affect the area.  The light freezing drizzle is expected
to periodically affect MAF, HOB, and CNM through the day tomorrow
with low ceilings remaining across the area.  Winds will be out of
the east with occasional gusts possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2013/

DISCUSSION...
The strong upper trough that brought the winter wx to the region has
swung east of the area this afternoon with another lobe of it
expected to swing across the southern Rockies Sunday... and a third
lobe on Monday.  This will drive a series of fronts through the
region this week that allow little time to recover from the cold.

The Arctic airmass remained over the area today with little
modification under cloudy skies.  Parts of the southern CWA did have
sun break through which aided their warming.  May see some breaks
develop across the Permian Basin but these should fill back in by
tonight.  Some roads will melt today but these will refreeze
tonight.  It will be continued cold through tonight and Saturday as
as cold air advection continues with a north wind and much colder
temperatures to the north.

The wind will be slow to come back around to the south as a surface
ridge across TX slow to slide east.  Models actually developing qpf
tonight and tomorrow mainly west but not expecting much of
anything.  Will continue the current forecast of light freezing
drizzle/freezing fog tonight along and east of the mountains due to
isentropic lift.  Patchy freezing drizzle possible along and north
of the Pecos River Saturday will keep roads slick.

Temperatures will be very cold tonight with ice on the ground and a
N/NE.  May see lows in the single digits tonight over northern
Permian Basin and northern Lea county.  Precautions need to be taken
tonight for pets and pipes.  Expect will set a record low tonight at
MAF as the record for is 13 degrees.  Various guidance calls for the
low tonight at MAF of 9... 9... and 12.  Will have to dry out before
cooldown as current dewpt 19... but drier air advection expected.
Could set records for the coldest high today and tomorrow.  On the
7th the coldest high at MAF is 32 degrees... guidance calling for
highs in the teens.  Widespread cloud cover may recede some from the
SW but should return tonight.

Look for warming 850 temps with return of sunshine Sunday with much
warmer readings expected... highs in the 50s and 60s.  Another
strong cold front early Monday knock temps back down into the 30s.
Barely begin to recover from this front when another weak front
pushed through the region Wednesday. Temps slowly recover rest of
the week

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$