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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270453
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1153 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through this
evening.  Southeasterly winds will become gusty by late morning, and
stay that way through early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

Area radars show convection has dwindled to a few cells in wrn
Eddy county, and all indications are that these will continue to
diminish w/loss of daytime heating. Convection further north
moving into SE NM after midnight is still in question, but the
latest NAM and HRRR suggest it won`t make it. We`ll do a quick
update to lower pops, and adjust other parameters as needed.
Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms
across the west will weaken/dissipate after sunset, and while
mention was not included early in the forecast period at CNM, will
monitor and amend if needed. Winds will remain out of the S/SE,
with a few gusts to around 20kt possible through this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

Typical summer pattern in place into this weekend with the upper
ridge overhead providing hot temperatures with storms confined to
the higher terrain. Convective coverage will be less than yesterday
as increasing heights and subsidence help to suppress most CU
development. Hi-res models show an outflow boundary sparking a
few storms very late tonight across parts of SE NM so have kept
PoPs going there through Thursday morning. Even though
temperatures will be above normal, it will only be by 3-5
degrees. Midland Intl has only hit 100 degrees once this month
which is far from our hottest month on record last July!

Not much change through the weekend until the upper ridge weakens
and shifts slightly west. By this time a weak front will penetrate
the ridge and could backdoor into the region late Sunday. This will
be highly dependent on the amount of convection to our north
which could push the front in sooner. Models have delayed the
onset of midlevel northerly flow by a day or so. While showers and
storms will increase early next week, greater chances hold off
until the middle to latter part of next week. Latest models have
also backed off on the much cooler temperatures for next week.
Will have to wait and see if this trend continues, but more clouds
and rain around should at the very least help temperatures fall
back toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       74  98  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         74  99  75  99 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  98  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  89  68  89 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          71  96  69  96 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          63  91  63  91 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$