Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201642
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast through mid-day Monday. Though a few
low clouds could approach the Permian Basin early Monday morning,
it currently appears that low ceilings are not likely to be
observed across southeast New Mexico or southwest Texas, even at
MAF, through Monday morning. With abundant moisture across this
area, scattered convective clouds can be expected mainly this
afternoon along with a few high clouds. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible mainly late afternoon through mid
evening, though the chance of occurrence is too low for mention in
area terminal forecasts. Thunderstorms will be more common in the
mountainous terrain. Any thunderstorms that develop could produce
strong and variable wind gusts. Otherwise, winds will generally be
south to southeast at less than 12 knots across the area through
Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Other than including temporary MVFR ceilings at KMAF, expect VFR
conditions to prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon, but expect the
bulk of the storms to stay west of the TAF sites, so will not
include at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05






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