Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 212022
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge across the forecast area will move east and be
replaced by westerly flow aloft by early Wednesday. Record to
near record warmth is expected across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Tomorrow and Thursday as low level thermal ridging,
downslope flow and clear skies develop in this flow. By Thursday
a powerful storm system is forecast to track across the central
Plains. In addition to the near record warmth windy to very windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday and Thursday evening. Wind Advisories will also
likely be needed across much of the remainder of the area Thursday.

Beyond Thursday more dry westerly flow aloft will continue
through the weekend and into early next week. Except for Saturday,
high temperatures are expected to remain well above normal.
Looks like breezy to very windy conditions will also develop
again next Monday and especially Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The trend of unseasonably warm days will continue Wednesday and
Thursday.  May have some localized places approach critical fire wx
conditions on Wednesday and a watch is out for the Guadalupe
Mountains... but Thursday is the main concern. Wind speeds will be
higher Thursday with the approach of an upper trough and the
development of a deep surface low to the north. Minimum Rh values
Thursday will be around 10 percent or less across the region with
20ft winds in excess of 20 mph across a large portion of the area.
Will continue the Fire Weather Watch Thursday for Southeast New
Mexico... the Western Permian Basin... The Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains... Upper Trans Pecos... and Marfa Plateau.  A front on
Friday will bring cooler temperatures and improved fire wx
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  86  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  85  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  90  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  88  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  77  50  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          45  82  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  79  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  84  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  86  47  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

72/12



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