Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 202326
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation and update discussions below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS will be a concern for all TAF sites except MAF the next several
hours. In fact, TS may last beyond 06Z but currently it appears
there will be a break before the next round and there is too much
uncertainty as to when TS will redevelop later tonight so will
keep it out beyond 05Z for now. There may be some temporary MVFR
CIG/VIS during the heaviest rainfall with VFR conditions otherwise
expected.

Hennig

&&

.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to produce heavy rain across
SE NM, the Davis Mountains and the Upper Trans Pecos. 1-2 inches
of rain has already fallen at many locations in the area this
afternoon. Hi-res models show another round of heavy rain expected
to develop over the Big Bend tonight. This area of rain will
likely move north across the most saturated area which could cause
more flash flooding. The ongoing Flash Flood Watch has been
expanded east and south for the above reasons. Heavy rain should
begin to taper off around sunrise Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Over the next week, we expect temperatures to remain at or above
seasonal norms for the most part, though slightly cooler
temperatures are on tap mid-week. Though it will remain warm, rain
chances will continue across parts of the area for the next
several days.

Under the influence of an upper level ridge over south Texas,
satellite water vapor imagery depicts more significant mid-level
moisture shunted west of a large part of the area today with
deeper moisture and corresponding theta-e ridge confined to the
higher terrain, resulting in little if any thunderstorm activity
across the eastern half of the area and enhanced thunderstorm
chances west. Satellite imagery also appears to show a weak MCV
circulation left from overnight convection in northern Mexico
moving northward close to the western Culberson county line which
could enhance thunderstorm development in Culberson and Eddy
Counties over the next several hours. These areas also have
precipitable water values in excess of 1.5" suggesting that
locally heavy rainfall will be possible through the evening hours.
High rainfall rates and slow storm movement could bring some
areas excessive rainfall resulting in flash flooding of arroyos
and small streams. A flash flood watch has already been issued and
will continue through the overnight hours for Culberson and Eddy
counties.

On Monday, weak southwesterly flow aloft develops as low presently
over southwest New Mexico pulls northeastward, dragging a weak upper
trough into southeast New Mexico. With a coincident surface trough
providing low level convergence into the plains of southeast New
Mexico, expect to see an increased chance of thunderstorms over that
area Monday afternoon and evening while deep moisture and daytime
heating will provide for continuing scattered thunderstorm activity
over the mountains. Elevated precipitable water values again
suggest the potential for locally heavy rain.

By Tuesday afternoon, upper ridge will build from northern Mexico
through central New Mexico bringing northwest upper flow which will
help push a weak cold front into the area. Though NAM model
previously lagged other models with respect to frontal progress,
operational models now somewhat consistent bringing front into the
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico by late afternoon.
Timing of front during maximum heating will help boost thunderstorm
chances across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin.

In wake of front, will expect temperatures to drop slightly below
seasonal norms Wednesday and Thursday, though warmer temperatures
will return for the week`s end as weak ridging develops aloft. A
moist south to southeast surface flow will help keep isolated to
scattered thunderstorms in the forecast. Better chances will be in
the mountain areas where upslope flow will provide lift.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  95  73  94 /  10  10   0  20
Carlsbad                       70  89  69  93 /  80  30  20  20
Dryden                         74  96  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  94  71  95 /  40  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 64  82  66  84 /  80  40  20  30
Hobbs                          68  88  68  88 /  50  20  20  30
Marfa                          63  87  63  87 /  60  20  20  50
Midland Intl Airport           72  93  73  92 /  10  10   0  20
Odessa                         72  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
Wink                           71  94  71  95 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

99/99/10



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