Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
815 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the expiration of the Wind Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have begun to diminish this evening, with most locations in
the Wind Advisory now below criteria. While gusts will continue
the next several hours, speeds are expected to continue to
decrease, and thus, the Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire.
The High Wind Warning in the Guadalupe Mountains remains in
effect through later this evening. Updated products will be out
shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions with high clouds will prevail the next 24 hours.
Southwest winds will continue to gust to 25-35kt the first few
hours of the forecast period this evening, and though speeds will
diminish somewhat overnight, some gusts to around 20kt will still
be possible. Winds will increase again by 15-18Z, with gusts to
25-35kt expected at all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough is over most of the country with the base of
the trough over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Strong winds at
the base of the trough are mixing downward to the surface across the
area. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains
and Wind Advisories are in effect for the southeast New Mexico
plains, central and western portions of the Permian Basin, Van Horn
and the Highway 54 Corridor, Davis Mountains, and the Upper Trans
Pecos for today. A surface low is present to the north of the area
across the Texas panhandle and eastern New Mexico resulting in
southwest to west winds across the CWA. This will allow temperatures
to rebound this afternoon into the 90s across much of the area. This
pattern has resulted in critical fire weather across the western
half of the CWA. See fire weather discussion below.

The upper trough digs southward over the Intermountain West on
Friday. Winds are expected to be out of the west to southwest on
Friday but not as strong as today. However, high winds will be
possible across the Guadalupe Mountains again Friday afternoon. Have
issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Friday
afternoon although conditions will be marginal. Temperatures on
Friday will be similar to those today. The previously mentioned
upper trough will continue to dig southward and begin to move over
the region on Saturday. This will result in a cold front moving into
the area on Saturday and a chance of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the area Friday night through Saturday night. The
precipitation is expected to be out of the area by Sunday, and
temperatures will be well below normal with highs mostly in the 60s
and 70s as the surface high further impacts the area. After the
upper low/trough lifts northeastward, another broader upper trough
will develop over the central part of the country resulting in the
CWA remaining at/toward the base of the upper trough through next
Wednesday. This upper pattern will result in warming temperatures
through Tuesday with west southwest surface winds. As this upper
trough moves east, a cold front will move into the area on
Wednesday. There might be precipitation associated with this front
but chances are not looking very good.

FIRE WEATHER...

Strong west wind mixing down to the surface today producing warm...
dry... and windy conditions with high to very high fire danger.  A
Red Flag warning remains in effect this afternoon from SE NM down to
the Big Bend.  Friday not looking as windy... could see some
locations approach critical fire wx conditions.  SE NM looks windy
enough but minimum RH too high.  The Trans Pecos looks dry enough
but wind speeds not as high.  Therefore will not issue any
additional fire wx products at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  90  56  70 /   0   0  30  30
Carlsbad                       61  87  56  65 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         64  95  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  65  94  63  75 /   0   0  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 56  78  49  58 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          56  84  50  61 /   0  10  20  20
Marfa                          51  87  55  68 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           62  91  59  72 /   0   0  20  20
Odessa                         62  91  59  71 /   0   0  20  20
Wink                           62  93  59  71 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$


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