Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1123 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
persist at all terminals with light NW winds and mostly clear skies
in place.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Visible satellite images from this morning showed nicely where
snow fell yesterday and overnight, which was much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico. However the latest images show most snow
is melted and the heaviest snow fell in the higher elevations west
of the Pecos River and northern Lea County. We were fortunate
road conditions overall were not too bad though a sudden drop into
the mid 20s in the Midland/Odessa area around sunrise caused roads
to briefly become very slick.

The upper trough that caused the snow is moving off to the east
with the upper pattern developing into a Rex block (upper high
situated north of an upper low) by the weekend. This will split
the westerlies into a southern and northern stream with the south
plains being the convergence point of these two jets. We will
initially be under the influence of the northern stream which will
bring clear skies and above normal temperatures through the middle
of next week. A disturbance in the southern stream will approach the
area early next week but will weaken as it moves into a ridge and
only bring a slight chance of showers west of the Pecos.

The block briefly breaks down mid week but becomes reestablished
by next weekend. The difference with this second blocking pattern
is that current models are indicating the southern stream will be
stronger and exert more influence over our weather. This would
advect moisture and instability across northern Mexico and into
Texas and New Mexico by the end of next week. The GFS is the
wettest model by far and may be too wet given a weak upper ridge
centered right over our CWA so have only introduced a slight
chance for showers at the very end of the forecast. The GFS is not
only wettest, but it is the coldest model showing the northern
stream bringing cold air down south interacting with the southern
stream for another possibility of wintry precip next weekend. This
however is after the valid period of this forecast so there is
plenty of time to monitor this next potential system.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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