Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 010537
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1237 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.
VFR conditions are expected today. Isolated late afternoon and
evening thunderstorms are possible across the higher elevations of
southeast New Mexico. Some of these thunderstorms could possibly reach
KCNM after 00z.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015/
The winds have returned to the south/southeast this afternoon, which
has brought the return of some low clouds across the Permian Basin.
Some Cu are also beginning to pop around the Davis Mountains with
southeasterly flow at the surface and the dryline off to the west.
With heating of the day, there will be a low chances for
thunderstorms in that area. Main concern with any storms that form
would be some gusty winds and possibly some small hail.
There will be decreasing chances of rain the further the forecast
goes with low probability for storms on Monday and Tuesday. The low
chances will mainly stick to the higher terrain as a surface trough
will set up under the ridge and keep moisture across the area.
There are also indications that some shortwave energy may make its
way around the northern periphery of the upper ridge as well. This
would help support some isolated thunderstorm chances.
Temperatures will gradually climb to slightly above normal by
Tuesday with mid to low 90s for most of the area. The Rio Grand valley,
however, will be in the upper 90s to low 100s.
In the extended, the west coast trough looks to stay on the west
coast with the lastest model runs and the upper ridge may stick
around just a little longer. We will have to monitor that to see
if that trough can dislodge the upper ridge over us. If the ridge
holds on, we can expect more of the same for the near future with
above normal temperatures and lower rain chances.
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