Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

806
FXUS64 KMAF 061654
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1054 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through tonight,
except KMAF and KINK where MVFR, if not IFR, ceilings will set in
between 07/06Z and 07/09Z.  Expect the lower ceilings to mix out by
07/15Z to 07/17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, as an upper-lvl trough moves thru the MS Valley. At
the sfc, a cold front is moving thru the area, w/fropa thru KMAF
by 10Z. This front will take temps well blo normal this afternoon,
but a quick rebound to above-normal is anticipated Wednesday as
winds veer around to return flow, and then take on a westerly
component during the afternoon for a little downslope warming
action. Unfortunately, this will be short-lived, as a much
stronger arctic front plows into the region, w/fropa at KMAF
around 04Z Thu, bringing the coldest temps this fall to the
region. Biggest concerns this forecast will be possible
precipitation developing along the I-10 corridor as models bring
in a mid-lvl trough from the west. Combined w/weak isentropic
upglide, a mix of precip could develop along and behind the front.
This looks to be a short event, but may make travel hazardous on
I-10 late Wednesday night/Thursday. Precip type is, natch, the
main challenge. The NAM suggests the column will not be saturated
deep enough for SN, and calls for a FZRA scenario, whereas the GFS
is much more moist, favoring SN, especially in the east. Staying
pessimistic, we`ve opted for FZRA in the west, and FZRA or SN in
the east, mainly late Wed night into Thu morning, w/FZRA
continuing in the mtns Thu afternoon. QPFs should remain light,
but we`ll re-issue an SPS highliting these concerns. Frontal gap
winds will be on the rise at KGDP Wed night, but there are some
model disagreements as to how strong. for now, we`ll just mention
this in the HWO.

Temps Thursday should hover around freezing most locations, and
then slowly warm to normal by Saturday afternoon under NW flow
aloft.A dry pattern then ensues under zonal flow aloft into the
extended, w/temps remaining above-normal thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  38  61  28 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       55  37  61  30 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         63  41  65  38 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  58  44  66  31 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 53  41  53  27 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          45  33  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  34  61  30 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           49  38  64  29 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         51  39  64  29 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           53  37  66  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.