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482
FXUS64 KMAF 160242
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
942 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to lower the POP grids for tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has cleared out of much of the area with some remaining
across the Lower Trans Pecos and in/around southeast New Mexico.
Hi resolution models are showing this same trend for tonight so
went ahead and lowered POPS especially for the central Permian
Basin.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

Today have an upper ridge centered over FL with a broad trough over
the western US.  As the trough moves off to the east the ridge will
shift back west to TX and NM by Thursday.  Over the weekend a cut
off low does form off the CA coast but current models sweep it over
the top of the ridge.

Temperatures will remain above average out through the forecast as
no fronts expected for the coming week.  Wednesday looks like the
hot day this week with 100 degrees possible for the Midland/Odessa
area... and over 100 along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Look
for warm overnight lows. Temps slowly decrease by the weekend into
next week.

Had morning showers and a few storms over the Eastern Permian Basin
that were slow to move off and gave some locations a half inch or
more of rain.  Model qpf hitting Pecos County hard tonight... given
its habit of storms developing there have increased pops near FST.
Any storms that develop across the Trans Pecos should spread into
the Permian Basin tonight.  A large outflow boundary moved down into
the area this morning... could be a focus for afternoon convection.
With good low level moisture with dewpts into the 70s and a PW of
1.45 inches this morning main concern with storms will be locally
heavy rain.  Rain chances decrease the next couple of days and favor
the eastern part of the area.  Will have some rain chances in the
extended mainly over the higher elevations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  98  74  96 /  30  20  10  20
Carlsbad                       70  98  69  99 /  30  10   0  10
Dryden                         77  99  76  99 /  40  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  73  98  73  98 /  30  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  91  67  91 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                          68  95  68  96 /  30  10  10  20
Marfa                          62  89  62  90 /  30  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           74 100  74  98 /  30  20  10  20
Odessa                         73  99  74  99 /  30  10  10  20
Wink                           73 102  73 100 /  30  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99