Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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721
FXUS64 KMAF 241002
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in localized
BLDU. WV imagery shows the upper trough over the Texas/OK
Panhandles, leaving all terminals in subsidence on the backside
today. As a result, windy conditions will continue, w/westerlies
veering to NW, and beginning to diminish after 00Z Fri. A few high
clouds will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong mid level low that brought high winds across the area
yesterday will continue to move east through the south-central plains
today. A strong mid-level jet continues to wrap around the base
of the trough. These strong upper level winds should be allowed to
mix down with subsidence on the back side of the trough. We
should see another windy day for the majority of the area, though
not quite as windy as yesterday. Winds should be strong enough for
a Wind Advisory for much of West Texas and southeast New Mexico
except in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning will
remain in effect. The Pacific front will continue to push east and
behind it slightly cooler will reside, which will bring high
temperatures down into 70s for today. The dry air to the west will
also be pushed further east and another fire weather day is in
store with the gusty winds expected. See Fire Weather Discussion
below.

By Friday night, the trough will further east and sent a
front south into the area. This will be a dry front as all the
moisture will be pushed east. A weak ridge will build over the
area on Saturday and make for a rather pleasant day before a
shortwave trough moves through the Texas Panhandle. Strong
westerly winds will likely contribute to another windy day on
Sunday. Yet another front will move south into the area on the
backside of the trough and bring only a slight cool down again to
start the week.

The train of upper level troughs will continue next week. The
first one will swing through the south-central Rockies bringing
some unsettled weather with it. There will be chances for rain
across much of the area from Tuesday to Thursday. Heading into
next weekend the second upper trough looks to take a similar path
as the previous and could continue the streak of active weather.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/OK
Panhandles, which will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in
subsidence on the backside of the trough later today.  Thus, 20`
westerly winds will veer to the NW, generally increasing to the NE,
closer to the base of the exiting trough.  The GFS once again mixes
deeper than the NAM, performed well for yesterday`s event, and is
the preferred model for today.  That said, forecast soundings mix to
an average of 650mb, which will easily result in critical 20` winds
area-wide.  Currently, the dryline extends from KSNK SW to the Big
Bend Area, and is forecast to keep trucking eastward today.  This is
allowing for poor recovery overnight, and RH will stay low Fri in
continued W-NW flow.  The only area in question is the NE zones,
where RH may stay just above criteria this afternoon.  Otherwise, as
a result of yesterday`s activity, extreme Fire Danger now covers
most all of the forecast area.  Trans Pecos ERCs continue near the
90th percentile. Although the fire wx threat is a little lower
today, we are not out of the (dry) woods yet.

Sunday continues to shape up as another critical fire wx day,
confined mainly to the Guadalupes and adjacent plains, as a
secondary trough passes north of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  45  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  46  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  45  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          74  40  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  35  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           77  46  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         77  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44



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