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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show a weak cold front to the north of the region, w/buffer
soundings bringing fropa to KMAF at around 10Z.  Otherwise, a
relatively warm night is on tap in modest westerly flow under a
fetch of high clouds streaming in from the west.  Further west, WV
imagery shows a massive cut-off low separated from upper-lvl flow
and parked off the coast of Baja.  In between this trough and NW
flow to the east, models develop a highly-amped ridge over West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico over the next few days.  This feature is
forecast to build east and flatten into midweek as the upper trough
shears out as it moves NE back into the jetstream.  As the trough
shears, it is forecast to send a shortwave thru the western zones
Monday night, for a slight chance of showers there.  Upper ridging
will allow for a brief respite from the cold temps of late.  By
Tuesday, temps will top out in the low 70s for much of the region,
making it feel more like early May than late January.

Unfortunately, this warmer ex comes to an end late Wednesday night
as the aforementioned upper trough dives into the MS Valley, and
drops a cold front into the region Thursday.  Temps should still
stay abv-normal Thursday afternoon, but drop blo normal Friday and
Saturday.  During this time, another trough will separate from the
flow off the west coast near Baja.  This feature is a little further
NE than the current one, and likely to result in increased chances
of precip for the FA as it sends shortwaves thru SW flow aloft
beginning late Thursday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar
w/placement of the trough off the coast of Baja, while the DGEX
wants to take it to srn CA/AZ.  Models bring in considerable
mid/hi-lvl moisture from the SW, while return flow pumps sfc
dewpoints to near 40F by Friday night.  PWATs at KMAF increase to
over 1" by 00Z Saturday...over 3 std devs abv normal and abv the
99th percentile, so the potential to score some decent rainfall
will be there.  Attm, forecast soundings suggest precip will fall as
rain, as lower lvls stay abv freezing deep enough to melt any ice in
the column.  The only exception might be the extreme N/NW, which may
see a mix Friday night.  Chances for frozen precip look better
Saturday night, but that is beyond this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  33  68  38  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  34  69  37  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  29  65  42  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  65  40  66  46  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  36  70  43  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  38  61  44  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   59  32  66  38  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  34  67  38  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  62  34  67  39  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    62  29  65  38  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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