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000
FXUS64 KMAF 162329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT INK AND PEQ. LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. MAF HAS THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING THESE LOW CEILINGS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA SO INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS NOSING UP INTO W TX/ERN NM WITH WEAK NW MID
LEVEL FLOW THE RESULT. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MST
AXIS AND IS SEEN AS A 5H THETA-E RIDGE IN MODEL DATA ACROSS THE W.
THIS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE WIND/STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS FAVORED STORMS
INITIATING IN THE HIER TERRAIN WHERE MID LEVEL CAP LESS OF A FACTOR.
STEERING WIND WILL FAVOR STORMS TO DRIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS.
SOUNDINGS ARE WELL MIXED THRU 65H ACRS SE NM WITH A 25-30F T/TD
SPREAD AGAIN SUGGESTING GUSTY WINDS IN ASSOCN WITH MORE OF A
HYBRID TYPE OF MICROBURST SIGNATURE. 7H TEMPS ARE VERY WARM TODAY
(15C ON MAF 12Z SOUNDING) AND AS/IF STORMS MOVE INTO PLAINS/PB LATE
PM/EVENING EXPECT THAT THEY WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE BUT COULD PUSH
OUT SOME WIND. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT EWD MORE SO MONDAY WITH NW MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING. THE
PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW-NE CWFA AND LOW
LEVEL MSTR FAVORS TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PB MON PM. 7H TEMPS
ARE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY AND BASICALLY ALL MODELS SUGGEST ISOLD-
SCT STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN CWFA INTO THE FAR SWRN CWFA PARTIALLY
ALONG/WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPS OF 95-100 EXPECTED STORM INITIATION WONT BE HARD TO
COME BY. CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25KTS SUPPORTS
STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS. FCST MOSTLY CAPTURES THIS SCENARIO AND
WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER E ACROSS THE
N BEFORE 00Z. BY TUE STORMS ARE MOST FAVORED IN N-NE AREAS WITHIN NW
FLOW AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SFC BOUNDARY. BY WED EML BECOMES OVER
POWERING AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO A SMALLER AREA IN THE
MTNS. THUR/FRI ECMWF DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SE NM WITHIN THE
NRN EXTENT OF MINOR THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. SEEMS OPTIMISTIC AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY. GENERAL IDEA IN MODELS DATA IS THE CENTER OF
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE INVOF ERN OK AND HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN A
FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL TEND TO FAVOR A LONG FETCH OF SW MID LEVEL
FLOW AND IF IT PERSIST IT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO STREAM OF
HIER MID/UPPER LEVEL THETA-E AIR RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE W.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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