Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221721
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread VFR wx into the overnight as mostly SE winds stay under
10kts. Low probability for TSRA to impact CNM/HOB late tonight.
Otherwise surface low development Fri will turn wind NW at
CNM/PEQ ahead of the cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 551 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight at all area terminals.
thunderstorms could move south into the region late tonight, but
the probability is too low near the end of the forecast period to
include.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

UPDATE...

Will update to eliminate the pre first period mention of showers
and thunderstorms this morning per weakening radar trends.

No other changes.

Update out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

Generally northerly flow aloft is expected to continue through
the next seven days with a nearly stationary upper ridge centered
across the southwest United States. Mainly isolated thunderstorms
will be possible through Friday as convection rolls off the New
Mexico Mountains and also tracks south from the Texas Panhandle
in the northerly flow aloft.

Today will be the warmest day of the week and 850 millibar
temperature forecasts continue to suggest Heat Advisory criteria
will be met across southeast New Mexico and a significant portion
of west Texas. Will continue the Heat Advisory today for much of
the forecast area today and this evening.

850 millibar temperature forecasts suggest that Friday`s high
temperatures will be a couple of degree cooler most areas. Heat
Advisories will probably still be needed across the Big Bend and
possibly portions of the upper Trans Pecos Region of west Texas.

Friday night appears to be a stormy one as a strong cold front
plunges south into the region with a couple of strong upper level
disturbances. Severe storms and heavy rainfall will be possible
across portions of southeast New Mexico and west Texas as copious
low level moisture advects into the region ahead of the front via
a 30 knot low level jet from the Rio Grande Valley. It`s still
too early to pinpoint the areas that will be impacted most, but
will mention the storm potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
High winds also look like a possibility behind the front in the
Guadalupe Pass.

Saturday through Tuesday will feature the continued chance for
thunderstorms and cooler temperatures with moist upslope flow in
place with continued disturbances tracking into the region from
the north.

Beyond Tuesday northerly flow aloft will continue next Wednesday
and Thursday with warming temperatures. Thunderstorms will be
possible in the mountains in intense heating in upslope flow. Its
too early to pinpoint any areas in the plains for convection that
could roll south again from New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76 103  70  87 /  10  20  40  20
Carlsbad                       74 108  72  92 /  10  10  30  20
Dryden                         77 107  78  96 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  78 106  74  93 /  10  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 75 100  67  85 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          72 100  67  86 /   0  10  30  20
Marfa                          68 101  66  91 /  10  20  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           78 106  72  89 /   0  20  40  20
Odessa                         78 102  72  89 /   0  20  40  20
Wink                           76 109  72  93 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$



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