Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201738
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1238 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected areawide through this evening, with
intermittently gusty southerly winds. Overnight, winds will back
slightly to the southeast, with MVFR and potentially IFR ceilings
possible after 06Z at MAF/INK/HOB. Improvement to VFR at these
locations is not expected until 14-15Z as winds begin to shift to
the southwest, with increasing wind speeds and gusts anticipated
near/just beyond the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A progressive longwave upper pattern over the CONUS the next seven
days will promote a battle of the seasons over southeastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  Currently, a shortwave trough translating
eastward over the region will be accompanied by showers and
thunderstorms through the rest of the night.  The fairly widespread
precipitation will diminish with time though, possibly yielding a
few weak showers or storms over the Permian Basin after 20/12Z and
through the coming morning.  Expect clouds to decrease from west
to east thereafter as the said ua trough exits eastward.  A low
level thermal ridge will begin to spread over the area, and allow
temperatures to rise a few degrees above normal this afternoon.
This process will continue Saturday ahead of the next ua trough,
with the thermal ridge aided by westerly downslope winds in
spiking high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal.

Dry air will advect over the region with the warmer temperatures,
and prevent any precipitation along and behind a cold front Saturday
night and Sunday.  Cooler high temperatures just shy of normal will
prevail all of one day before readings rebound above normal Monday
under weak northwest flow aloft.  An ua trough will expand over the
eastern CONUS Monday night/Tuesday and send another cold front south
through the region.  The cool off will last a couple of days this
time before westerly winds associated with a digging ua trough warms
readings above normal again Thursday.  Rain chances will be nil
through the week, while refreshingly cool temperatures will last all
of Friday before the next warmup Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  64  88  51 /  10   0  20  10
Carlsbad                       85  57  84  47 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         82  62  89  59 /  10   0  20  20
Fort Stockton                  87  62  90  52 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  58  77  48 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          81  56  81  44 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          84  49  83  42 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  63  87  50 /  10   0  10  10
Odessa                         82  63  86  50 /  10   0  10  10
Wink                           85  59  88  51 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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