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000
FXUS64 KMAF 051820 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1220 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.UPDATE...
Update has been sent to warm temperatures a few degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As clouds have cleared across the Basin and parts of SE NM temperatures
have increased (in some cases to near fcst highs) and as such we have
increased temps as much as 6 degrees in some place across the Basin.
12Z MOS guidance, trends and surface temperatures from model data all
support this. There could still be some pockets of freezing fog on
e slopes of the Davis Mtns, but that too will slowly lift.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS remain at CNM/PEQ but are expected to lift around 20Z,
23Z respectively. Otherwise VFR thru the night with S-SE winds
less than 10kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

There may be a few flurries this morning in various locations with a
brief drop to IFR ceilings.  Since the duration of this
precipitation will be short, and visibility is not expected to drop,
will not include at any terminals.  Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will
give way to VFR ceilings through 05/15Z, then scattered clouds this
afternoon.  VFR conditions will prevail during the rest of the
forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough axis approaching the region with precipitation
occurring east of the forecast area across central and east Texas.
Due to the precipitation ending, have canceled the Winter Weather
Advisory that was in effect for southeast New Mexico and much of
west Texas. Have also canceled the High Wind Warning for Guadalupe
Pass due to recent trends.

Strong and cold surface high pressure centered across the
southern high plains will be the main weather feature through
Sunday. NAM guidance indicating considerable cloudiness
with weak upslope flow through Saturday. Temperatures should
continue well below normal through the weekend due to the
influence of the cold surface high and clouds expected.

A weak and slow moving upper level trough will approach the
region Sunday and could provide a slight chance of showers
to the Big Bend. The upper level trough axis will be very
slow to leave the region early next week but precipitation
chances should remain east of the forecast area, east of the
trough axis, next Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures may finally
warm to near normal values by Tuesday due to weak surface
trough formation across northeast New Mexico. Above normal
and dry conditions expected next Wednesday and possibly
Thursday as the surface trough strengthens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 39  22  48  28  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  23  48  30  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                41  22  48  25  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  29  48  31  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           39  25  51  31  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  21  45  30  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   39  21  49  26  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   41  19  49  22  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  23  48  29  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  40  24  48  30  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    40  23  51  28  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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