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000
FXUS64 KMAF 101105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
505 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Main concern is the dense freezing fog across the terminals this
morning. Visibilities below 1/4 mile at times through mid morning.
KHOB should remain fog-free as drier air has moved in there. Skies
will clear later this morning with VFR conditions returning into
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...
With an upper trough exiting to the east... a flat ridge will build
in from the west with the return of milder wx today.  Will have to
monitor a cut off low off of Baja that will swing through later in
the week and could bring showers to the region.  A secondary upper
trough moves through early Saturday with high pressure building in
behind that.

Currently have patchy fog this morning from Carlsbad to Snyder and
south across the Permian Basin to Fort Stockton.  This fog will
combine with below freezing temperatures and may produce slick
bridges in addition to reduced visibilities so will go ahead and
issue a freezing fog advisory until 14Z for these locations.  In
some locations the fog will be dense.  Low cloud coverage should
continue to shrink as drier air moves into the region but fog is
becoming densest on the edge of these clouds.  Will start the day
with a W/NW wind in post frontal conditions but a south wind will
return by midday as a new leeside low develops over CO.  This should
return the area to warmer wx today with highs climbing back into the
40s with lots of sunshine expected.

The roller coaster of temperatures will continue with a weak front
moving through early Wednesday bringing somewhat cooler temps.  Temps
struggle to recover on Thursday with 40s continuing before warmer
temps briefly return Friday with highs climbing into the 60s.  Then
another front moves through Saturday knocking highs back into the
50s.  The normal high for this time of year in the central Permian
Basin is 59... so will have below normal temperatures through most
of the week.

Currently have mention of slight chance showers with the cut off low
mainly south of the Pecos.  Models continue to develop some qpf with
this event so will leave pops in the forecast.  Rest of the forecast
looks dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Eddy County Plains...Southern Lea County.

TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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