Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 172255
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
455 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
A weak backdoor front is currently moving through the area, but
will washout overnight. Other than some brief low cigs possible at
KMAF, VFR conditions will prevail. South and southwesterly winds
will become gusty by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Warmer today with a bit more sunshine despite a cold front
pushing into the Permian Basin region, shifting winds to the
northeast. Winds will return to the S/SE by this evening, ushering
50+ dewpoints into eastern zones through Sunday morning. Will
likely see some low clouds develop across the east as a result and
maybe some areas of patchy fog. Models show several weak/small
disturbances moving over the region in SW flow aloft tonight and
Sunday, producing areas of light rain across southern areas
tonight and shifting to eastern areas Sunday. Also, a dryline
developing across eastern zones Sunday afternoon looks to increase
instability just east of this boundary so can`t rule out the
chances for a few thunderstorms during this time.

An area of low pressure will strengthen near the NM/CO state lines
Monday as a large upper trough digs south through the western ConUS.
Strengthening SW flow aloft and a tightening gradient at the surface
will result in increased SW winds across SE NM and W TX through the
day. High winds look likely in the Guadalupe Mountains as higher
wind speeds aloft mix down, aiding in strong wind speeds. Gusty
downsloping winds will help warm high temperatures in the 70s and
potentially 80 for some. Drier air will shove the dryline east
along with rain chances. Models indicate a retreating dryline
Monday night with showers and storms developing over the eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos overnight. Looks like we could
have some weak upper forcing with a passing shortwave so will
keep low chance PoPs across these areas.

Will see west winds continue Tuesday, but not as strong and high
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler. Our next cold front will
arrive Tuesday night/Wednesday morning so Wednesday looks to be
much cooler with highs generally in the 50s. Beyond Wednesday, SW
flow aloft will continue with broad upper troughing across the
west. May see a return of the dryline across the forecast area
Friday and Saturday but will have to wait and see if we can get
some thunderstorms with it as upper waves pass close by.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  74  54  80 /   0  10  20   0
Carlsbad                       42  76  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         56  75  55  82 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  51  81  54  79 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 47  67  48  64 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          40  75  46  70 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          43  75  43  71 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           48  75  52  78 /   0  10  20   0
Odessa                         47  75  52  77 /   0  10  20   0
Wink                           46  79  48  78 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/



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