516
FXUS64 KMAF 021101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

- Excellent chances of rain are expected through Thursday, then
  decreasing into next week, and centered on the Davis Mountains.

- Temperatures will gradually warm to near-normal Saturday, then
  cool slightly through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

More rainy weather is on the way, and high temperatures will be
below average for early July while lows remain mild for this time of
year. Deterministic and ensemble models show the Pacific Coast
troughing and southeastern US ridging mid to upper tropospheric
pattern holding for at least a few more days. This will mean
southerly winds aloft will continue to advect moisture into the
region, along with disturbances that aid in mid to upper forcing for
ascent. In the wake of the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry and a
quasi-stationary cold front north of the area yesterday, winds had
shifted more easterly yesterday. For today and tomorrow, WPC Surface
Analysis depicts the quasi-stionary front washing out over the TX
PH, while lee troughing develops from MT into the Front Range of the
Colorado Rockies and TX PH, with winds shifting more to the
southeast in response. These southeast winds will continue to advect
Gulf moisture into the area. Dew point temperatures will remain in
the mid to upper 60s F, lower to mid 60s F western higher terrain
due to the continued humid, upslope southeast winds. PWATS remain in
the 1.4" to 1.8" range, 1.75 to 2 standard deviations above normal,
providing tropospheric moisture for continued warm rain processes.
Similar to yesterday, IR satellite and radar imagery again shows
scattered showers and storms slowly moving from southeast to
northeast within near surface southeast winds, as higher scattered
to broken clouds in the humid southerly flow farther overhead drift
north. Showers and storms are forecast to continue moving northwest
into SE NM plains through this morning, while more showers/storms
develop farther to the southwest. PoPs increase from medium this
morning into the medium to high range from Stockton Plateau into
Marfa Plateau and SE NM plains by this afternoon, and into Permian
Basin by later this afternoon into this evening. With abundant low
cloud cover limiting diurnal heating despite a few breaks in clouds
possible, highs will once again be below average. Similar to
yesterday, upper 70s to lower 80s, upper 60s highest elevations of
Guadalupes, Davis Mountains, and Lower Trans Pecos, lower to mid
70s SE NM plains into Marfa Plateau
- where heavier rain is likely to result in more evaporational
cooling and limit warming of near surface layer - and mid 80s to
lower 90s along the Rio Grande can all be expected.

A LLJ this evening will generate gusty winds from the Stockton
Plateau into Permian Basin and SE NM plains before winds decrease
later in the evening. Rain chances continue tonight with low to
medium probabilities and scattered to broken low cloud cover and dew
point temperatures in the 60s F limiting radiational cooling,
resulting in lows only falling into the mid 60s to lower 70s F,
lower to mid 60s F higher elevations, and upper 50s F along at
highest elevations. Tomorrow, PoPs again increase to medium to high
range as showers/storms develop in the afternoon and evening. Exact
timing of showers/storms remains uncertain and will be heavily
influenced by local storm-scale interactions and differential
heating, as well as upslope flow-terrain interactions. Despite
similar coverage and magnitude of PoPs, highs will be warmer by a
few degrees tomorrow due to the weakening Pacific Coast trough and
rising heights/thicknesses. This will translate to highs in the
lower to mid 80s, upper 70s to lower 80s SE NM plains into Marfa
Plateau, upper 60s to lower 70s highest elevations, and upper 80s to
lower 90s Presidio Valley into the Big Bend.

With all the rainfall that has fallen, more is on the way before
this rainy pattern lets up. By tomorrow evening, NBM grids are
showing widespread 0.40" to 0.60" amounts, regions of 0.75" to
1.00", and amounts as highs as 1.30" in spots for western higher
terrain of W TX into Guadalupes, as well as northern into southeast
Permian Basin. Lower percentile ensembles once again show at least a
few tenths of an inch rainfall, with highest amounts over SE NM
plains, medium to high probability of rainfall 0.50" to 0.75"
areawide, medium probability of 1.00" to 1.25" rainfall Marfa
Plateau and northern Permian Basin, and spreads of 0.75" to 1.00"
indicating some potential for heavier convective rains. With soils
saturated or close to being saturated over many parts of the region
from the rain that has fallen in the last week, flooding will be a
concern where any heavier and/or more persistent showers/storms
occur, with highest risk of flooding over northern into southeast
Permian Basin, and again from western higher terrain into SE NM
plains. Exercise caution when traveling, especially near creeks,
bridges, and lower lying roads where ponding of water occurs. Turn
around don`t drown! Monitor forecasts for flash flood warnings, and
be ready to move to higher ground if necessary. Once we are past
Thursday, drier weather is on the way. More on this in the long term
discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Thursday night, the upper ridge is forecast to be over the ArklaTex
and nudging east, courtesy of a series of troughs muscling in from
the west coast.  The first of these troughs will be moving into West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and convection is forecast to be
ongoing, mainly along and south of I-10.  The trough will pass
through the area Friday, after which rain chances will ebb Friday
night through Saturday night on the backside of the trough.  Upper
ridging begins developing over southern Sonora/western Chihuahua
Friday night, and migrates to just south of the Four Corners by the
end of the extended.  As a result, rain chances will continue to
diminish over the weekend and into next week.  The NBM increases
POPs west and north on Sunday, possibly due to shortwaves moving
down the east side of the ridge, but this is likely overdone, so
take it w/a grain of salt.  Even so, NAEFS ensembles continue to
advertise PWATS at a minimum of 2.1 std devs through 06Z Saturday,
so locally heavy rainfall potential remains.  Current radar bias is
averaging over 1.25 (in tropical mode!), so warm rain processes
continue, promoting tropical downpours.

Even w/the upper ridge over the ArklaTex, thicknesses are still
forecast to increase through Saturday as we climb out of this cool
spell and ridging strengthens.  Saturday still looks to be the
warmest day this forecast, but highs will top out just around
normal, and remain there through the end of the extended as ridging
takes over.  Unfortunately, a recurring LLJ each night will continue
to keep overnight lows uncomfortably warm.  These will peak Sunday
morning at around 5 F above normal.

NBM wind speeds throughout the extended are too low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

MVFR or lower CIGs persist throughout TAF period. In regions of
showers/storms and mist or fog, there is a low probability that
CIGs and VIS could drop down to LIFR. Otherwise, CIGs near or at
IFR from beginning of TAF period forecast to lift to MVFR at
terminals 14Z-17Z and remain MVFR through 02Z Thursday, except in
showers/storms, then decrease to IFR 04Z-09Z. VFR VIS with low
stratus except for MVFR VIS or lower in showers/storms and regions
of mist or fog. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning are main
threats in any storms that impact terminals. Easterly winds shift
to southeasterly 14Z-19Z, becoming gusty up to 20 knots by 18Z for
terminals on Stockton Plateau into Permian Basin and Lea County.
Winds decrease 01Z-06Z but remain gusty near 15 knots for Stockton
Plateau into end of period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               81  69  84  71 /  50  50  70  50
Carlsbad                 76  67  80  68 /  80  70  70  30
Dryden                   82  71  85  72 /  60  50  70  40
Fort Stockton            81  68  83  70 /  70  40  80  40
Guadalupe Pass           71  62  75  65 /  80  70  70  30
Hobbs                    76  66  81  67 /  70  70  60  40
Marfa                    75  64  77  64 /  80  60  90  60
Midland Intl Airport     79  69  83  71 /  60  60  60  50
Odessa                   78  69  82  70 /  70  60  60  40
Wink                     80  69  83  70 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...94