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000
FXUS64 KMAF 111101
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Satellite shows low clouds developing e-s of FST and with established
se flow thru the mid levels these low clouds (near MVFR) will have
a good chance to develop/move into FST/MAF before 15Z. Also there
looks to be enough low level mstr for CIGS to persist off/on thru
the day. Otherwise SE winds will increase mid morning. Also radar
shows SHRA between DRT and UVA in assocn with upper low across
Mexico. 06Z runs have backed off on precip some around MAF/FST
and will continue to keep out of TAFs despite this being decent
set-up for scattered SHRA this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Friday...Water vapor imagery is
indc that the center of the upper low is in northern Coahuila
moving WNW. The circulation around this upper low is advecting
mid/upper level moisture into southern Texas. In the past hour
convection has developed south of Uvalde, TX and cloud tops are
cooling south of Del Rio, TX. At the surface SE winds
continue...advecting (relatively) cooler and moist air from the
Gulf of Mexico.

Models track the upper low and inverted trough slowly WNW through
Chihuahua and SW Texas today through Sat morning. Models also
bring a vort max into SW Texas. With increasing moisture and
mid/upper level diffluence have bumped up pops today and tonight
across the CWA. With the increased cloud cover and SE surface
winds have temps between 5-10 degrees below normal for today. SE
winds could be gusty this aftn/evening per the MET guidance.

Ridging building SE out of the Great Basin will bring dry weather
Sun/Mon along with temps edging above normal. From Tuesday through
the middle of next week the weather becomes unsettled over the
CWA. An anomalously strong upper low drops SE out of extreme SW
Ontario into the Great Lakes region. This will drive a strong (for
this time of year as the previous forecaster noted) cold front
south through the Plains states. The question is how far south
will the front make it. With this uncertainty...have made little
change in the extended with slight chance/chance pops through the
mid week period with near to a little below average temperatures.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$