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639
FXUS64 KMAF 201722
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to persist at all terminals. Could see a few thunderstorms
develop across the south later this afternoon, potentially affecting
FST for a brief period. Have left mention out of the TAF for now but
will continue to monitor radar trends later today and amend if
needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A dryline will push into the eastern Permian Basin this afternoon
sending highs well above normal, into the upper 90s to low 100s.
Amazingly, as hot as this is, it is still not terribly unusual
with the record high at MAF on this date being 107. Any
thunderstorms today will develop along and east of this boundary
in a high instability/low shear environment favorable for pulse
type storms...one or two of which could become low end severe.

Beginning tomorrow, a deep upper level low drops into the western
half of the U.S. and becomes quasi-stationary, or slowly moves
east through early next week. This low will both pull gulf
moisture back into our entire CWA and provide the needed
instability to create scattered to perhaps numerous showers and
thunderstorms. PoPs begin increasing Friday night in our far
western counties, with the axis of highest PoPs slowly shifting
east as the upper low makes its slow advance across the Rockies.
Flash flooding will be a concern we will have to monitor with this
system as PWATs exceed reach 1.5-2" and conditions favor cell
training. The expected rainfall should also keep temperatures
closer to normal values.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico plains. Minimum
relative humidities of 15 to 20 percent are expected in this area
with winds of 20 plus mph in the Guadalupe Mountains. The 15 percent
or less RH values will not be co-located with the 20 plus mph winds
but fuels are dry enough to issue a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement.
Temperatures today will also be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    100  73  96  72 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       97  65  98  67 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                        100  74 100  75 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  97  72  95  70 /  30  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 88  67  90  66 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          93  66  94  66 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                          88  59  89  59 /  20  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  73  96  72 /  10  10  20  10
Odessa                         98  73  95  72 /  10  10  20  10
Wink                           99  72  99  73 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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