Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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668
FXUS64 KMAF 262328
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
528 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the TAF period with winds diminishing
tonight, increasing and becoming gusty Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, w/a shortwave approaching thru AZ/NM.  Not much is expected
to come out of this except near-critical winds thru the Guadalupes
this afternoon/evening, as well as Red Flag conditions there.
Variable mid/hi clouds, however, should keep winds in check.

However, the next couple of days will become increasingly warm and
windy as an upper trough over the WA/OR border opens, moves inland,
and arrives here Tuesday afternoon/night.  Flow aloft will become
increasingly SW, setting things up for widespread critical fire wx
conditions Tuesday afternoon.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for
details.

Monday, cloud cover should be less than today, w/models mixing out
to above H8. The forecast NAM mtn wave signature is a bit stronger
than today, so we`ve gone ahead and issued a High Wind Warning for
marginal high winds in the Guadalupes, and Advisories for the
adjacent plains.  Tuesday, the upper trough arrives, w/downslope
warming pushing afternoon highs well-abv normal into the 70s and 80s
most locations.  Forecast NAM soundings mix to around H7 (40-50kts)
during the afternoon, whereas the GFS mixes to H6 (55-65kts).  The
NAM mtn wave signature is even stronger Tuesday than Monday, and H7
height gradients tighten to over 60m/150nm.  This suggests potential
high winds not only in the Guadalupes, but on the adjacent plains
and higher elevations of mtns down south, as well.  The only
variable in question is cloud cover.  Models forecast quite a bit of
mid/hi cloud, even w/the deep mixing.  For now, we`ll issue a high
wind watch for western zones.

Otherwise, this all comes to an abrupt end Tuesday night/Wednesday
as a strong cold front arrives, taking temps down to below-normal
Wed-Fri.  Zonal flow aloft follows, w/temps climbing back to above-
normal by the weekend.  Moisture return remains non-existent thru
all of this, so grids stay dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

As above normal temperatures have returned across the area today,
RHs have plummeted once again, with strong southwesterly winds
gusting to around 45-50 mph resulting in critical fire weather
conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains.  Thus, the Red Flag Warning
for that area will remain in effect through 00Z as scheduled. Monday
will be another warm, dry, and breezy day, with increasing winds at
both the surface and aloft. However, RHs look to improve slightly
across the higher terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains south to the
Davis Mountains, with RHs in some spots reaching 20-23%. Elsewhere,
RHs around 10-15% will be common. While winds will increase, the
strongest winds will remain confined to the higher terrain,
decoupled from the lowest, critical RHs. Breezy conditions could
extend across portions of the SE New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans
Pecos during the afternoon, and could result in brief, localized
critical fire weather conditions. Given the lack of confidence in
widespread critical conditions at this time, will hold off on a
Watch, as Monday looks to be a better candidate for a Fire Danger
Statement.

The focus remains on Tuesday, as temperatures climb further above
normal and winds increase substantially areawide. Poor to fair
recovery tonight and Monday night will ensure continued drying of
available fuels, and given afternoon RHs on Tuesday afternoon
progged to drop below 15% for all but far northwestern portions of
the area and highest elevations, widespread critical fire weather
conditions are expected.

Conditions look to improve Wednesday through Friday, as a cold front
will bring cooler temperatures and decreased winds to the region,
and afternoon RH values improve to the 20-30% range by Friday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  73  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  85  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  82  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  65  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  71  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  73  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  78  44  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 5 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM MST Monday for Eddy County
     Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 5 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
     Monday for Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/10



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