Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 121138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015


Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions with only high clouds will prevail through the
forecast period. A cold front will move into northern portions of
the area after sunrise this morning, and is expected to be south
of area TAF sites by early this afternoon. West winds ahead of the
front will shift to the north/northeast behind the front late this
morning and this afternoon, with gusts of 25-30KT possible. Gusts
will diminish by this evening, with light winds expected


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:30 AM CDT Monday...Dry weather is in store
for West Texas/Southeast New Mexico through the end of the week.

A dry cold front is continuing to march south thru the TX
Panhandle...currently between Amarillo and Lubbock. Latest HRRR
and RAP13 High Resolution models bring the cold front into the
Northern Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains just after
sunrise...into the Central Permian Basin mid morning...Trans
Pecos early afternoon...and down to the Rio Grand Valley by late
aftn. Not much cool air is behind the front...the main impacts
will be gusty winds along and after frontal passage. As of the
latest model runs winds should remain below Advisory levels...but
there could be some blowing dust.

It will finally feel like Fall tonight. With a dry airmass in
place and light winds as the boundary layer decouples...lows
tonight could drop into the 40s across portions of the CWA...with
mainly 50s elsewhere. The last time the low temperature at MAF
dropped down to 50 or lower was April 30th!

Ridging will be centered over the Southern Intermountain West this
week with a dry northerly flow aloft and low level southwest
downslope flow. Along with the dry weather temps will be roughly
5-10 degrees above normal.

The upper low that gave us the rain the end of last week will
continue its circuitous route to the CA coast and then open into
a wave by the weekend. Have slight chance pops along the western
sections of the CWA Saturday night/Sunday since forecasting the
evolution of a cutoff low 5-7 days out is quite challenging.


FIRE WEATHER...A dry cold front moving through the area today
will result in strong north to northeast winds in its wake, with
the strongest winds expected across the northern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains. While much of the area saw widespread
rainfall last week, rainfall amounts were significantly less
across the Western Low Rolling Plains, where minimum RH values
this afternoon will drop to 20-25 percent. Given Texas A&M Forest
Service observed dryness in this area remains normal to above
normal and minimum RH values are above critical levels, fire
weather conditions will fall short of being elevated, precluding
issuance of a Fire Danger Statement. However, there there is a
window from roughly 16-21Z today when gusty winds coupled with
decreasing RH may pose some concern, though with winds expected to
relax by late afternoon, the threat should quickly diminish.





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