National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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FXUS64 KMAF 161139
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
633 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light showers will continue across the area for the next few hours
before dissipating.  Winds will continue to be gusty and strong out
of the north before beginning to weaken this afternoon and evening.
Blowing dust and reduced visibilities remain possible with this
wind.  Low ceilings are only expected to last for the next couple of
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014/

.DISCUSSION...

Busy night across West Texas/SE NM, w/a little bit of everything
thrown into the mix.  Cold front hit KMAF at around 0345Z...and sfc
obs in the Big Bend Area show fropa as well.  Accompanying the front
was a brief line of thunderstorms, preceded by strong winds and
blowing dust.  Area radars showing only -SHRA at the moment, which
may be contributing to winds.

Main concerns today will be winter precip in the Davis/Apache Mtns.
Short-range models still bring a batch of QPF thru there this
morning, ending at around 15Z.  Current WV imagery shows the upper
trough core rotating into the mtns, and this should provide added
lift/enhancement to precip movg into that area, coupled w/700-500mb
LR`s of 6-7C/km.  Current obs at Mt. Locke/Fowlkes show -FZRA at the
moment, w/a sfc temp of -1C.  However, models suggest bottom-up
moistening of the column over the next couple of hours, and a
transition to SN.  Short-term models advertise anywhere from 4"
(RUC/NAM) to 7"(NMM) in the highest elevations.  Current advisory covers
1-3" fm 5.5-7 kft, and 5 above, so this should cover it for now.
Should be getting some ground truth in a couple of hours, and stand
ready to upgrade to a warning if necessary.

As for winds, a very tight pressure gradient lies in the wake of the
front, and is forecast to begin relaxing after 12Z.  However,
current VWP shows 50kt NE flow at around 750mb, which is where
latest buffer soundings show mixing this afternoon as clouds
dissipate NW-SE.  By 18Z, NAM forecasts these winds to be 40kts or
better, so as the sfc gradient relaxes, better winds on the backside
of the trough are expected to mix down/replace.  These are forecast
to diminish rapidly 18Z-21Z as the trough exits to the
east.

Otherwise, weak SW sfc flow returns Monday as leeside troughing
redevelops on the Front Range, for a quick rebound to normal temps
Monday afternoon, and consequent fire wx (see discussion below).
Upper trough associated w/the lee will push a second cold front into
the area Tuesday afternoon, bringing temps briefly below normal
Wednesday.  Temps warm back to above-normal by Thursday, and stay
AOA normal into the extended under zonal flow aloft.  Another weak
front is advertised for Friday night, but will just keep temps near
normal Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures on Monday afternoon will warm to around or slightly
above normal values with breezy southwest winds.  These southwest
winds will bring in dry air with relative humidity values at or
below 15 percent across a large part of southeast New Mexico and
West Texas.  Winds will generally be below 20 mph except across
locations west of the Pecos River where the surface pressure
gradient will be stronger.  For this reason, have issued a Fire
Weather Watch for southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
the Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor area for Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  34  73  47  /  20   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              60  36  73  45  /  30   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  34  77  44  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  37  73  46  /  40   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  37  75  48  /  40   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  38  67  44  /  20   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   58  33  71  42  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   53  23  65  32  /  30   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  31  74  43  /  30   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  60  33  73  48  /  30   0   0   0
WINK TX                    63  31  79  43  /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area.


&&

$$

80/44
National Weather Service National Headquarters
