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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301043
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The stage is still set for another round of unsettled weather
today through at least Saturday night. Cooler air is currently
oozing southwest through southeast New Mexico and west Texas. In
the upper levels a potent southern stream system currently near
Baja will very slowly move southeast and then east-northeast
across Mexico the next several days. Ahead of this low, strong
large scale forcing will produce a high probability of widespread
precipitation beginning today through Saturday night. Also, as
this upper low moves toward the region, the northern stream will
continue to supply cool low level air. Forecast soundings
indicate the potential for a few inches of snow and sleet today
across the Guadalupe Mountains with a mix bag of much lighter
rain, snow, sleet across the southeast New Mexico Plains. Will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory today for the Guadalupe
Mountains but increase snow and sleet amounts up to 4 inches per
latest model soundings and radar trends. Will continue a chance of
rain across west Texas today.

For tonight and Saturday have continued high pops all areas
as the southern stream system continues to produce strong large
scale forcing ahead of the upper low. Forecast soundings indicate
some warming in the low to mid levels so the precipitation should
be mainly in the form of rain tonight and Saturday. The exception
appears to be across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and
extreme northern Lea county New Mexico tonight where some of the
guidance is indicating that some cooler low level air could
persist and produce a mixture of rain and sleet. The day shift
will need to monitor the Guadalupe Mountains tonight concerning
this sleet potential.

By Saturday night and Sunday the upper level trough axis between
the northern and southern stream is expected to approach the area
with the upper low sinking southeast and weakening through Mexico.
The better forcing will diminish and shift to areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas and precipitation chances will be
on the decrease. In addition by these time periods, the lower
levels of the atmosphere are progged to warm up enough for the
precipitation to fall in liquid form all areas.

By Sunday night through next Tuesday the upper level low pressure
system is forecast to continue to weaken and move east-northeast
across Mexico with precipitation expected to remain south of the
forecast area. Temperatures will continue to be cool Monday but
should warm to above normal values by Tuesday as a surface lee
trough/low forms behind the upper low.

Generally near to above normal temperatures and no precipitation
is expected next Wednesday through Friday in northwest flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  37  47  37  /  40  90  80  20
BIG SPRING TX              44  38  46  41  /  20  90  90  20
CARLSBAD NM                39  36  50  35  /  80  90  70  20
DRYDEN TX                  51  46  56  43  /  20  80  70  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  41  55  41  /  40  90  70  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          35  33  46  36  /  80  90  70  20
HOBBS NM                   41  34  49  35  /  70  90  80  20
MARFA TX                   48  37  57  34  /  40  90  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  38  48  37  /  30  90  90  20
ODESSA TX                  45  38  51  39  /  30  90  80  20
WINK TX                    51  42  54  38  /  50  90  70  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67

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