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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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000
FXUS64 KMAF 052336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
531 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will continue to
impact the terminals through the overnight period.  Ceilings and
visibilities may be reduced to LIFR conditions with this
precipitation.  The precipitation should be out of the area by 12z
with low ceilings clearing out by 18z Friday.  Winds will be mostly
out of the northeast with a few gusts possible in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2013/

.DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front blew through the area early this morning
bringing much colder air to the region.  In the upper levels a
strong trough swinging across the SW US with shortwaves moving ahead
of it triggered a round of winter wx across much of the region this
morning.  The base of the trough will swing across the region
overnight... with a secondary lobe swinging down Sunday... and
additional lobes Tuesday and Wednesday.  All this says is conditions
will be slow to improve/warm across the area.

Cold air has moved farther south/faster than previously expected.
A Winter Wx Advisory is now in effect as far south as Alpine... with
a Winter Storm Warning for much of the Permian Basin and parts of SE
NM.  A large area of Freezing rain... sleet... and some snow moved
across the area this morning.  Had freezing rain and sleet on and
off through the day at the office.  Snow reported across portions of
Eddy county and would guess some in Lea county.  As of late
afternoon additional streaks of rain... sleet... and snow could be
seen on radar with more expected tonight.

Winter Wx events are rarely clear cut and current models have a
large range as to the amount of precipitation they develop tonight.
The Euro did good with the first round of precip moving across the
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin and does develop more precip moving up
from the SW tonight.  Eta... which did not do well with this
event... also does show additional precip moving up from Mexico
across the area tonight.  The GFS only develops some precip around
the edges of the area.

A 18z special upper air observation at MAF shows that the column
aloft has cooled significantly since 12z... but a 4000ft deep layer
does remain above freezing.  The warm nose... along with below
freezing temperatures at the surface... would keep the precip type
as mainly freezing rain or sleet... with mostly snow for SE NM.

Area road conditions would be worse than they are if not for recent
70 degree wx this week.  Refreezing of roads expected tonight.  The
worst conditions should be farther east across North TX... which
would affect anyone traveling there from West TX.

After this trough passes the rest of the forecast looks dry.  Stayed
to the cool side of guidance or below... and long range guidance
warms the region above freezing on Sunday.  Another cold front early
Monday will knock highs back into the 30s.  Highs warm back to the
50s and lower 60s by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 20  27  17  26  /  70  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              20  27  17  24  /  70  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                25  35  24  36  /  60   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  31  41  26  38  /  60  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           29  36  22  37  /  70  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          30  36  21  35  /  60   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   20  27  18  28  /  70   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   31  48  22  43  /  60  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    20  28  17  26  /  70  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  21  28  18  28  /  70  10  10  10
WINK TX                    25  34  23  33  /  70   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Scurry...Winkler.


&&

$$

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