Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 142335
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Returning s winds overnight will increase surface dwpnt to around
30 and MET indicates that IFR CIGS are possible at MAF as early
as 09Z, others are drier and for now we will be conservative. Most
attention is on strong cold front set to arrive as early as 17Z
at HOB at 21Z at FST. MVFR/IFR CIGS are likely in wake of the
front, but either right at the end or just after this forecast
period when some wintry precip will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Current observations show a northerly wind shift moving into the
CWA this afternoon, but this is only a prefrontal trough having
little effect on weather conditions. A strong cold front with very
cold air is still expected to arrive tomorrow. The current
forecast has the arrival Monday afternoon though models have a
tendency to be slow on such cold air masses and the front may
actually arrive a few hours earlier.

All models continue to show light precipitation developing behind
the front from the Permian Basin into the Big Bend. The precip
type is difficult to determine with some mix of freezing rain/
sleet/snow expected. The past few days a big concern was freezing
drizzle or freezing rain, but models have been trending colder and
it now appears the elevated warm layer will erode as (or soon
after) the surface temp drops below freezing. Not only this, but
the layer from 500-300mb is becoming more saturated allowing for
seeder-feeder processes to introduce ice nuclei to the super-
cooled saturated lower layer creating a better chance for sleet
or snow as opposed to freezing precip. Regardless, accumulations
in our CWA will be light with higher accumulations to the
southeast, so impacts will be somewhat limited with I-20 east of
Fort Stockton the location most likely to become slick and icy.
Temperatures will remain below freezing on Tuesday so any
remaining precipitation during the afternoon should completely
change to snow, though again, the QPF will be low. Not to be
forgotten, the cold air moving through the Guadalupe Mountains
will cause another gap wind event at the pass with strong winds
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The High Wind Watch has been
upgraded to a warning for that location. Wind chill values will
drop into the single digits but should remain above zero so no
advisory is anticipated at this time.

The surface high pressure center moves east Wednesday bringing a
warmer southerly flow. In the upper levels however, an upper level
disturbance will deepen and move southeast across the western
U.S. reaching West Texas Wednesday night. So despite warmer temps,
there may be a second batch of wintry precip with the highest
PoPs south of I-10. Will keep it simple for now and only mention
rain or snow though forecast soundings are showing a return of
the elevated warm layer which could make a wintry mix possible
once again. The precip field could also be larger should the
disturbance deepen faster than currently progged so we will to see
how this evolves over the next few model runs.

Increasing westerly flow late in the week will make Thursday
warmer and send temps Friday and Saturday back above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  50  18  28 /   0   0  20  10
Carlsbad                       29  53  22  31 /   0   0  20  10
Dryden                         34  57  27  31 /   0   0  40  30
Fort Stockton                  34  60  20  26 /   0   0  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 37  50  14  24 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          27  50  18  28 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          26  61  21  31 /   0   0  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           32  52  19  27 /   0   0  20  10
Odessa                         32  53  18  27 /   0   0  20  10
Wink                           28  57  22  30 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from 5 PM Monday to 8 AM MST Tuesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$



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