Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 252334
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
634 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southerly
winds tonight will veer to the southwest Sunday morning, and then
to the west by around 17-18Z. Winds will begin to increase after
15Z, with gusts to around 30kt possible through the afternoon at
all terminals. While some blowing dust may be possible,
particularly after 18Z Sunday afternoon, have not included mention
at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 147 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have brief upper ridging over the area today before an upper trough
moving across CA/NV today moves over the region Sunday.  Will get
another dose of brief ridging Monday before a stronger trough moving
out of CA develops into a cut off low over southern NV later that
day.  By early Tuesday this low will be over AZ and wobble into NM
early Wednesday.  On Wednesday this low will pass over TX and into
OK by early Thursday.  Now have another trough Friday that models
show diving out of the NW and moving down across the Great Basin
developing into a closed low near the 4 corners region. These two
lows could be wx producer for the area.

Have clear skies today in post frontal conditions.  Had a cool start
to the morning but with sunny skies and a south wind temps warming
up quickly.  Marfa... Alpine... Fort Davis... and Tatum all got down
into the 30s this morning.  It may be windy Sunday as upper trough
moves across the region... will continue the High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Temperatures this week will be cooler than
most of last week as a series of fronts move through the region...
one early Monday and another early Thursday.

Will have storm chances back in the forecast ahead of upper troughs
Tue/Wed and again Fri/Sat. Expect some of these storms could be
strong to severe but still a ways out.

FIRE WEATHER...
Storm system now along the west coast is forecast to track quickly
across the Rockies tonight and into the Texas Panhandle Sunday. A
stout surface pressure gradient to the south of the low combined
with deep mixing of 700 millibar winds of 30 to 40 knots will allow
for surface westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusty across much of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico Sunday morning through mid Sunday
evening. In addition westerly winds will promote downslope warming and
drying with min rh/s dropping to 5 to 15 percent. There will be a period
of considerable high clouds moving across the region Sunday afternoon
but forecast soundings indicate that the clouds will be thin. Will
go ahead and expand eastward the Fire Weather Watch to now include
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  82  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  83  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  90  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  76  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  76  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  83  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  82  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  84  45  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$



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