Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 171748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1148 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have upper low moving over TX today with a deep surface low along
the TX/NM border. This has resulted in a gusty west wind with
gusts over 30kts that will continue through the afternoon before
decreasing around sunset. Otherwise will be VFR with some mid/high
clouds increasing from the west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

Very warm temperatures and high fire danger will round out the work
week before a chance of storms enters the picture this weekend.

An upper low directly overhead this morning will continue to shift
northeast through the day. Subsidence on the back side of this
system and a developing surface low over the Texas South Plains will
lead to a warm, windy afternoon. Downsloping winds will bring lower
dewpoints in from the west while also allowing temperatures to climb
well into the 70`s. Strong mid-level winds across the higher terrain
will attempt to mix to the surface. This will lead to high winds across
both the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory
conditions in the adjacent plains. Fire danger will also become
critical especially across the Trans Pecos. Please see the Fire
AFD below.

We start the weekend on a warm note and look west at our next storm
system. An intense upper trough bringing flooding rains and heavy
snow to CA today will move east toward our region. While low level
moisture is still expected to move into the area Saturday night and
Sunday, it looks like it will be rather shallow. Models have trended
much lower with QPF as they now shove the dryline quickly east
across our area Sunday morning. Much of our CWA would remain dry if
this solution verifies. Backed flow in the mid levels would
suggest a further west dryline so we will see. If the dryline is
further west, eastern portions of the Permian Basin could see some
strong storms Sunday afternoon.

Once the weekend system passes, we should see quiet, although very
warm conditions into midweek. Another upper trough will develop over
the Rockies late next week before lifting into the Plains. Models
are beginning to indicate this system could bring very windy
conditions with a high fire danger in about a week. Stay tuned.

FIRE WEATHER...

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
along and either side of the Pecos River in west Texas.  West to
northwest winds will be fairly strong, 20 to 35 mph sustained with
gusts around 45 mph, and even stronger farther west across the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, and other higher terrain.  High
clouds will help keep temperatures down from the Guadalupes to the
Davis Mountains, which in turn will prevent RH/s from dropping below
15 percent.  However, along the Pecos River, there will be more
sunshine, warmer temperatures and minimum afternoon RH/s around 15
percent.  Since these areas did not see much rainfall in the last
week, fire danger will be high, if not very high, and will issue a
Red Flag Warning along the Pecos River in west Texas, except Terrell
County, between 17/18Z-18/00Z.

winds will diminish this evening and help alleviate fire weather
concerns.  Recovery will be fair over portions of the Permian Basin
and Upper Trans Pecos tonight, and good elsewhere.  Minimum
afternoon RH/s will not be quite as low Saturday, and definitely not
Sunday as moisture returns to the region, and perhaps rain chances
will increase Sunday too.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  44  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  76  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  44  63  44 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          72  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  35  70  38 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           74  47  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  47  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           76  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Southeast
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Crane-Loving-
     Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$



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