Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 202331
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Complicated terminal forecast tonight and Thursday behind a cold
front that moved through earlier today. IFR and LIFR cigs and
vsbys can be expected later tonight with light rain possible as
well. Strong northeasterly winds will gradually decrease through
the morning hours Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015/

UPDATE...

An update has been sent to include the SVR Watch for the southern
Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of
the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper
troughing over the western ConUS. Currently have a cold front
slowly sinking south toward the Pecos River Valley this afternoon
with temperatures generally in the 60s across much of SE NM and
the Permian Basin thanks to abundant cloud cover and cold air
advection. To the south, plenty of heating and moisture has
resulted in increased instability across these areas and we
already have some elevated convection developing just to the
north of the front and strong to severe storms across the Lower
Trans Pecos/Big Bend area. Relatively strong instability and 0-6km
bulk shear pushing 40kt across southern areas would continue to
support strong to severe thunderstorms through the afternoon and
early evening. And much like the last couple of days, storms will
be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall
and not to mention the potential for a tornado or two.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to spread across the
region overnight into Thursday morning. Moist, easterly/upslope flow
will persist through the day Thursday as a midlevel shortwave moves
overhead in SW flow aloft, providing some upper forcing for ascent.
Forecast models continue to hold onto widespread QPF Thursday into
Friday and so remains the concern for flooding and flash flooding
potential through Friday morning. May get a bit of a break Friday
afternoon as no noticeable upper forcing is currently evident.
Meanwhile, the upper trough to the west will begin its slow
progression eastward with notable height falls overspreading the
region Friday night into Saturday, providing upper forcing for
ascent through much of the weekend. Highest rain chances will be
across the eastern half of the CWA, where higher moisture resides.
Rain chances finally shift east Sunday evening as the ua trough
axis moves to the east and weak upper ridging takes over through
the beginning of next week. This would likely bring us a short
period of dry weather before SW flow aloft and rain chances return
mid week.

High temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow with highs ranging
from near 60 across the far north to near 80 across the Big Bend.
A warming trend is expected Friday through the weekend with near
normal temperatures expected by early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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