Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 140641
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1241 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Upglide continues to increase over the region early this morning
with light rain developing over the Permian Basin.  Boundary layer
temperatures are above freezing, however surface temperatures along
and north of a Tarzan to Snyder line have fallen below freezing in
many places.  Expect surface temperatures to drop to freezing or
below as far south as a Tarzan to Big Spring to Colorado City
through late tonight as light rain increases in these areas, and wet
bulbing occurs with surface dewpoints in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Have decided to issue a Freezing Rain Advisory for Dawson and
Martin, eastward to Scurry and Mitchell counties, which will last
until 14/18Z.  Although the ground is warm, a thin layer of ice
could accumulate on power lines, trees, and bridges and
overpasses.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1054 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Challenging flight conditions will continue the next 24 hours.
MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds and fog are affecting all
terminals, with deterioration to LIFR expected late tonight
through much of Saturday morning for MAF, INK, HOB, and PEQ. Light
rain is expected to develop by Saturday morning for all but
possibly PEQ and FST, and while isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Saturday areawide, have not included mention at this
time. Winds will generally be E/NE around 10-15KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cut off low over CA will move east and bring precipitation to
the region.  This low will swing across Baja on Saturday and
Northern Mexico into TX on Sunday.  By Monday the low moves into
OK/KS.  A secondary low may move near the area midweek.

A cold front moved into the area yesterday and has become stationary
near the Pecos River with cloud cover over most of the region.
Behind the front it is cold with a NE wind while much warmer and
generally a south wind ahead of it.  Lows tonight should be in the
30s north and 50s south... warms a little tomorrow to highs in the
40s north with 60s and 70s south.  This front may become focus for
future convection before slowly lifting north.  Even warmer on
Sunday.

Rain chances looking good and increasing through the weekend.
Thunderstorms enter the forecast Saturday and continue Sunday.
Will continue mention of a little mixed precip NE Permian Basin
Saturday morning but not expecting much.  On Saturday do have a
marginal risk of severe along the TX/NM border and a slight risk
severe on Sunday from ODO eastward.  Locally heavy rain will be also
possible mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Drys out early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  42  57  40 /  60  60  80  20
Carlsbad                       49  43  54  40 /  60  70  70  10
Dryden                         72  58  69  44 /  40  50  60  10
Fort Stockton                  60  50  65  42 /  50  50  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  43  48  34 /  40  70  70  10
Hobbs                          45  40  53  35 /  70  80  80  20
Marfa                          61  38  53  30 /  30  50  60  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  45  59  40 /  60  60  80  10
Odessa                         49  47  57  40 /  70  60  80  10
Wink                           52  46  59  36 /  60  70  70  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

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