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000
FXUS64 KMAF 281731
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Cold front across the
northern Permian Basin is expected to push south toward the central
Permian Basin and then stall before moving north again late tonight.
With an upper ridge over the region confidence was not high enough
at this time to mention any thunderstorms at any of the terminals
at this time. Will continue to monitor. Winds will generally be
easterly at 10 to 20 mph and gusty this afternoon. Winds should
generally diminish to 10 mph or less early this evening and
continue overnight.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. A front continues to slowly sink south
toward HOB this morning and may finally make it near MAF by late
morning. Expect strong easterly winds at both HOB and MAF through
the afternoon. Elsewhere, SE winds are expected to increase
throughout the morning then diminish after sunset. Could see some
isolated convection develop along/near the front this afternoon and
evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and MAF but will hold off on
any mention of this in the TAF for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The Subtropical ridge centered over the TX/NM border this morning
extends northward into Canada.  This center of this high will slowly
shift west the next few days as a large upper trough deepens over
the Eastern U.S.  This will allow for slightly cooler temps to
return to the region with increasing rain chances.

Have had storms over NE NM and the Panhandle most of the night which
have put out a good outflow reinforcing a weak front moving into
northern CWA as of 08z.  Thunderstorm development between Fort
Davis and Pine Springs has been on the increase and these may
continue until morning.  Latest MAF sounding had PW back to near
1.25 inches so locally could have some good rainfall for those
lucky enough to get rain.  The front should not make it too far
into the area before stalling out and trying to lift back to the
north Tuesday.  Not expecting much of a wind shift with the front
but surface wind should become easterly today across the area.

Had another unusually warm night with midnight temps generally in
the 80s but had 90 at Presidio and 91 at Carlsbad.  Also had more
clouds over the western half of the area that was slowing cooling.
There have been 6 days of 100 degrees during July at MAF but all
have been in the last 8 days.  Will cancel heat advisory for along
the Rio Grande with morning forecast issuance as highs today should
be 100 to 103 along the Rio Grande.  Highs for most of the rest of
the area should return to the upper 90s.  Highs across the Permian
Basin could briefly return to near 100 again on Wednesday.  Another
front looks to blow through the area Wednesday late afternoon or early
evening with a gusty north wind which will be unusually strong for
the middle of summer.  This will bring below normal temps to the region
for a few days with guidance trying to push highs down into the 80s
by the weekend.  Kept forecast on the warm side of guidance.

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday with the second front.
Will leave the widespread low pops in the extended... expect pops to
increase for some of these days as they get closer.  Current long
range GFS looks very wet for Saturday but still a long ways out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              96  71  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                98  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  98  76  98  74  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  69  89  71  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  71  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   90  60  89  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  73  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  73  97  76  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  75 101  75  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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