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000
FXUS64 KMAF 101559
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1059 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, under mostly clear
skies. Southwest sfc flow this afternoon will veer to the west by
the end of the forecast period, increasing and becoming gusty as a
leeside sfc trough moves SE out into the Central Plains.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
With a surface lee trough in place north of the area...southwest
downslope flow will allow for temperatures over much of the area to
warm into the 70s later today.

The real focus of this forecast will occur Tuesday into Wednesday.
A mid level shortwave trough moving across the central Rockies
will result in mid level height falls and associated surface
cyclogenesis over the portions of the Central High Plains late
tonight into Tuesday. With a surface low pressure center expected
to be situated over portions of Oklahoma and Kansas Tuesday
afternoon...this will likely result in breezy to windy downslope
west winds across much of our area. In combination with single
digit RH values and high temperatures almost 20 degrees above
normal...the potential for critical fire weather conditions exists
from Tuesday afternoon into the early evening across much of
southwest Texas west of the Pecos. Please see the fire weather
forecast below for additional details.

As surface low pressure slides further east of the area Tuesday
evening...a strong cold front will move rapidly into the area late
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Gusty winds are likely in
association with the frontal passage. While no rain is
expected...I would not rule out the possibility of blowing dust
around the area along with wind gusts as high as 50 mph in some
locations. High temperatures Wednesday will be as much as 35
degrees cooler than on Tuesday. The potential for windy conditions
exists across the Guadalupe Mountains beginning Tuesday afternoon
due to strong west winds...and continuing through Wednesday morning
with strong northeast winds behind the front. A warming trend
is again expected later in the week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Today a leeside trough will set up across the area and pull very dry
in from the west.  As the surface low moves SE Tuesday the wind
across the area will swing to the west across the area.  This will
push dry air across all of W TX and SE NM with minimum RH below 15
percent areawide.  The higher elevations and adjacent plains may see
20ft winds reach or exceed 20 mph by afternoon... when combined with
high fire danger may result in critical fire weather conditions
across the West.  Will continue the Fire Weather Watch Tuesday for
the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns... the Marfa Plateau... and portions of
the Trans Pecos.  A strong cold front late early Wednesday will end
fire weather concerns for a few days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Guadalupe Mountains...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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