Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 240839
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
339 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
As upper trough leaves the plains look for high pressure ridge to
build in from the west.  This will result in warmer and drier
conditions through the end of the week. The next upper trough will
move over the Central plains late Saturday/Sunday with return of
pops.  Will also have to watch the possibility of a cut off low
forming over Baja in the extended.

Its mostly clear this morning with a few clouds over SE NM and the
Permian Basin... should have a chilly start to the day with reading
sin the 40s and 50s.  After cool post frontal conditions Tuesday
will return to near normal temperatures today with highs in the 80s
and 90s as a S/SW wind kicks in.  Could see borderline high wind
conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains Thursday and Friday but too
marginal to issue a watch.

As the upper ridge moves over the region expect to get the first 100
degree readings of the year for much of W TX and SE NM.  Should
see 850mb temps of 30C/86F over Midland Thursday... along with a
brisk west wind across the region that will push up temps. Look
for the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys to be the hottest... with
readings of 105+ along the Rio Grande by Thursday. Could see the
2nd 100 degree readings on Friday which would tie a daily record
high at MAF. It should be a little cooler Saturday before a cold
front blows through early Sunday bringing a return to highs in the
80s for most of the area. Near normal readings for early next
week.

Not much rain chances over the next several days but precip chances
start to increase the first of next week as shortwaves may move down
into the area on NW flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains
Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.  A significant
warming and drying trend will begin areawide today, and by Thursday
given increasing dry west-southwesterly flow at the surface and
aloft, temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal. Lowest
RHs around 5 percent are expected along and west of the Pecos River,
particularly across the higher terrain. Concurrently, strong
westerly winds will develop across the Guadalupe Mountains, with
20ft winds expected to range from 25 to 35 mph, with higher gusts.
Critical fire weather conditions look to continue Friday, perhaps
expanding across the Southeast New Mexico Plains as fuels dry out
and winds increase across that area.  Very dry conditions are
expected again Saturday, though winds will be lighter, thus concerns
may be alleviated somewhat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  64 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       91  61 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  64 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  91  67 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 86  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          86  60  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          85  51  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           87  65 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         88  65 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           91  62 104  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

84/72



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