Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 282337
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
637 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Update for High Wind Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High based showers in dry air along a Pacific front producing
numerous high wind gusts behind the dryline. Have issued a large
high wind warning for SE NM down to the Rio Grande. May need to
expand this warning across the Permian Basin if the trend
continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
Have thunderstorms and/or high wind and blowing dust in all TAFs.
Expect very strong west wind in the wake of Pacific front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern is expected through this evening as a
strong upper level storm system tracks through New Mexico. Strong
lift and instability ahead of the upper low and dryline/cold front
will produce thunderstorms across portions of southeast New Mexico
near the upper low, and especially across the central and eastern
portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos ahead of the
dryline/cold front. Some of the storms will be severe the remainder
of this afternoon and this evening in the eastern Permian Basin
ahead of the dryline and cold front as strong instability and lift
interact with a strongly sheared atmosphere. In addition, winds
will increase significantly across the mountains and the plains
immediate adjacent to the mountains behind a dryline surge. Will
continue the High Wind Warning through 8 pm MDT for the Guadalupe
Mountains and the Wind Advisory for the southeast New Mexico
Plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor, Davis
Mountains and Marfa Plateau.

Conditions should improve significantly after midnight as the dry
line/cold front moves into central texas and winds diminish with
nocturnal cooling.

The upper low is forecast to track slowly across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles on Wednesday. Much cooler and below normal
temperatures are expected across southeast New Mexico and much
of west Texas behind the cold front. There will also be a chance
of wraparound cyclonic showers across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin associated with the upper low.
It will be windy again across the region and Wind Advisories will
probably be needed across portions of the forecast area.

Beyond Wednesday above normal temperatures are expected to resume
again. Another Pacific storm system will approach the region
Friday and will only slowly move through the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday. There are model differences in the track and
intensity of this upper low. However it appears that the bulk of
the precipitation with this system will track east of the forecast
area. At this time it appears that winds will be the main concerns
with this system with breezy to windy conditions developing.

Another system is forecast to track across the central or southern
Plains early to the middle of next week. This system also looks
like it will be mainly a wind producer as well.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Red Flag Warning through mid evening along and
west of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line. As an upper level storm
system approaches New Mexico late today the associated surface dryline
is sharpening. 20 foot winds of 20 mph or greater are beginning to
materialize in the warning area as the gradient increases. Min rh/s
are a bit more problematic as some areas are currently struggling
to reach 15 percent or less. Will error on the side of caution
and continue the Red Flag Warning due to high temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal and fuels dry enough for high to very high
fire danger. In addition virga showers and dry lightning can not
be ruled out in the Warning area behind the dryline through early
this evening near the upper low.

Mainly poor to fair recovery is expected tonight. Cooler and more
moist conditions are expected tomorrow behind the cold front
across much of the region despite windy conditions expected. The
exceptions could be portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend,
Presidio Valley. Later shifts will need to monitor these areas
for a possible Red Flag Warning or Fire Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  69  46  77 /  40  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       48  61  42  80 /  10  30  10   0
Dryden                         54  82  51  83 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  68  46  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  55  43  72 /   0  20   0   0
Hobbs                          45  53  40  75 /  10  30  10   0
Marfa                          42  67  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  65  47  77 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         50  61  45  78 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           50  64  44  80 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$



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