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000
FXUS64 KMAF 011724
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
A cold front has moved through all but FST as of 01/17Z with gusty
NE winds and a SCT/BKN MVFR cloud deck in its wake. CNM and MAF are
the only two terminals currently reporting MVFR and went ahead and
included a tempo group for these areas for the next 2-3 hours.
Regardless, all terminals could very well see occasional/brief MVFR
cigs as the front pushes south before returning to VFR for the
remainder of the afternoon. Otherwise, gusty NE winds around
15-20kts sustained through early afternoon will diminish quickly by
this evening and veer to the E/SE overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
We have opted to let dense fog advisory expire as the vsby in the area
surface obs are trending up, and have left fog in the forecast until
16Z. As frontal winds increase fog is dissipating quickly across the
n. Also made some adjustments to clouds based on visible imagery.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak pressure gradient and abundant low level moisture has resulted
in areas of dense fog across the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico
Plains and Guadalupe Mountains early this morning. It looks like it
will take the cold front with its increasing northerly winds to
scour out the fog later this morning, so will issue a Dense Fog
Advisory until 15z for the aforementioned areas. The cold front
will move through the forecast area today and keep temperatures
well below normal. In addition guidance is indicating that a short
wave trough across the Big Bend could combine with the southward
moving front to produce a slight chance of thunderstorms today
across the Big Bend.

For Monday through Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
that has plagued the region lately is forecast to track from
southwest Mexico northeast to eastern Texas by Wednesday. As the
system approaches the Big Bend Tuesday, a slight chance of showers
will be possible in that area. High temperatures are expected to
remain below normal Monday but a return to above normal temperatures
is in the offing Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low
forms.

By late Wednesday an amplifying upper level trough across the
eastern half of the nation will push a dry cold front into the
area. Below normal temperatures are expected behind this front
Thursday but a return to above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected next Friday and Saturday as another
surface lee trough forms.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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