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813
FXUS64 KMAF 170509
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds expected this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Today is shaping up to be another very warm day across Southeast
New Mexico and West Texas, as temperatures have already reached
into the upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon with a few hours
of heating left to go. Scattered storms have already begun to
develop across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau, with
additional thunderstorms possible this afternoon into tonight,
mainly across the favored higher terrain of the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau as well as eastern portions of the area
where dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees are
prevalent. A trailing cold front associated with yesterday`s
shortwave may act as a focus for convection to the north of the
area, with the potential for additional development across the
northern Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains due to outflow
boundary interactions. However, a diffuse dryline looks to be the
primary focus for convection across the central Permian Basin
southward to the Big Bend Area, as echoed by high-resolution
guidance. While shear is lacking, ample instability is expected to
result in a few strong to possibly severe storms, with damaging
downburst winds the primary threat. Also, given precipitable water
values around 1.25", heavy rainfall leading to localized
flooding/flash flooding is a concern. Storms that develop are
expected to continue into this evening before gradually
diminishing overnight.

Thursday onward, the pattern will be dominated by a broad upper
ridge currently located across the Gulf Coast, which will slowly
build westward across the region. Increasing southeasterly flow
around the periphery of the ridge will result in a westward
expansion of PoPs Thursday, however, as heights gradually rise
over the area, storm chances Friday into early next week will
generally be confined to the higher terrain and immediately
adjacent plains. Despite the rising heights, 850mb temperatures
will remain fairly steady in the 24-27C range the next several
days, which will yield highs each afternoon in the 90s for most
locations, and 80s across higher terrain, pretty close to normal
for this time of year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       71  94  71  92 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                         76  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  72  94  72  94 /  10  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 66  87  66  83 /  10  20  20  40
Hobbs                          69  91  69  90 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          61  86  63  86 /  30  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           74  95  73  95 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         73  94  73  95 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           74  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10