Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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723
FXUS64 KMAF 171128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
528 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

Patchy areas of low cigs developing this morning, currently
affecting CNM and FST. Low clouds are expected to fill in at other
terminals later today with increasing rain chances. Flight
conditions look to deteriorate after 18/00Z with IFR/LIFR cigs/vis
persisting through Wednesday morning. Otherwise...a few
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening however
did not mention TS in TAF attm given isolated coverage expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing shot of cooler air has entered the area this morning
bringing a brief return of the cool temps seen this past weekend.
Farther west, an upper low over northwestern Mexico will move
northeast today sending a strong vort max across west Texas near
00Z. The low will increase isentropic lift behind the front but it
is the smaller disturbance rotating around the low that will
increase instability enough to really increase showers and
isolated storms this afternoon and early evening. The rain will
mostly exit the area by midnight so temperatures should be warm
enough that the precipitation type will be all liquid. Any area
that has temperatures fall below freezing tonight will have
already had the precip come to an end. However there could be
some overpasses getting slick with residual water on the roads in
southeastern New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin so
motorists should be aware of this hazard.

Southwest flow ahead of the low will push moisture east of the
area tomorrow but the low will take an additional 24 hours to exit
the area. A mean 500 mb longwave trough will remain across the
western U.S. this week so more disturbances can be expected
moving out of the Pacific and across New Mexico and Texas. The
first will arrive Thursday night with the center passing too far
north to provide our CWA with any rainfall. Another arrives this
weekend and while its track will be to the north as well, this
system will be stronger and could give us a chance for rainfall.
At this time the temperatures appear too warm for any chance of
wintry precip.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  36  58  40 /  50  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       46  32  62  38 /  60  40  10   0
Dryden                         51  39  64  43 /  50  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  34  62  44 /  50  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  31  54  35 /  60  30  10   0
Hobbs                          47  32  56  35 /  50  50  10   0
Marfa                          48  27  58  29 /  30  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  35  57  40 /  60  50  10   0
Odessa                         46  36  57  39 /  60  50  10   0
Wink                           48  34  61  37 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/10



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