Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 141107
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
507 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR AND VLIFR ceilings will affect most area terminals through
14/18Z, with LIFR conditions likely persisting through the
afternoon.  In addition, light rain and fog will make visibility
just as low at most terminals through the morning.  Thunderstorms
will be possible at all area terminals today and tonight. Will
not include mention at any specific terminal, but the lower
ceiling and visibility may be temporarily interrupted by TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

..Freezing rain falling across parts of the area this morning
and then a severe weather threat tonight and Sunday...

Looking at a very complicated event unfolding across the area this
morning. Freezing rain is likely forming a glaze on elevated
surfaces across the northeastern portion of the Permian Basin.
Hi- res models like the HRRR and NAM 4KM are handling the current
situation the best. These models show temperatures hovering
around or just below freezing through this morning with periodic
showers. We issued a Freezing Rain Advisory earlier this morning
and will keep it going through Noon today. By that time it
appears temperatures should rise above freezing and precipitation
should transition to all rain.

Models continue to handle the cold air poorly with the GFS being the
furthest off. Will mostly stick with the NAM and the higher
resolution models through much of the weekend. The well advertised
upper low has shifted south into northern Baja this morning and
will move east today. Increasing SW flow aloft ahead of the
system and isentropic lift over the cold airmass will help generate
showers and a few thunderstorms later today. Temperatures will
struggle again this afternoon and will not rise much from where they
are right now. Unfortunately the hi-res models have temperatures
falling to near freezing again tonight across the same areas as
this morning. Will continue to monitor, but we believe as heavier
rain develops and falls through very warm air aloft, surface
temperatures will actually warm.

Attention then turns to the severe weather potential as the upper
system begins to lift north and near our region. A strong LLJ will
develop later tonight as a mid level speed max moves across the Rio
Grande. Western portions of the region will be near the exit region
of this jet helping to increase ascent. It doesn`t matter much
whether storms become surface based or are elevated, the
potential will be there for large hail and gusty winds.
Thunderstorms will increase during the day Sunday as the upper low
moves directly over the region. A 50 kt LLJ will maintain rich
Gulf moisture, but clouds and precip will limit destabilization.
The cold front that has settled across the Rio Grande will likely
begin to lift north as a warm front Sunday. SBCAPE values will near
1500 J/kg south of the front while at the same time the exit
region of a mid level jet helps enhance large-scale ascent. Deep
layer shear will also contribute to an environment that would
support large hail and damaging winds. Storm mode will likely
become linear as convection moves east across the CWA. Heavy rain
may also cause localized flooding as PWAT values rise to near
record levels for mid January.

The upper low shifts into the Plains early next week, but an upper
trough is expected to lag behind to our west. This will keep
temperatures near normal while dry air also filters in from the
northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  37  57  39 /  70  60  80  30
Carlsbad                       45  37  54  38 /  60  80  80  20
Dryden                         68  60  71  44 /  50  50  60  10
Fort Stockton                  47  47  63  41 /  60  50  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 43  36  47  34 /  50  70  80  20
Hobbs                          42  35  52  33 /  70  80  90  20
Marfa                          59  45  56  29 /  50  50  60  10
Midland Intl Airport           41  39  58  40 /  70  60  80  20
Odessa                         40  39  57  40 /  70  60  80  20
Wink                           44  41  59  36 /  70  70  80  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

67/29


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