Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 161729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1129 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers are decreasing across the area as are the chances for MVFR
CIGs so will keep VFR conditions at all TAF sites the next 24
hours. Another chance for rain tonight could bring MVFR CIGs but
it is more likely we see BKN040-060. Winds shift from northeast to
southwest tomorrow.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front moving thru the South
Plains, w/fropa expected at KMAF ~ 11Z.  This will bring an end to
the pleasant temperatures of the last couple of days or so, if only
for a day.  Dewpoints south of the front are in the 40s and 50s--
higher than they`ve been in some time.  00Z KMAF RAOB came in w/a
PWAT of 0.80"...about 250% or normal for this time of year.

Further out, WV imagery shows the upper trough pushing the cold
front extending from the Great Lakes region into the SW CONUS.
Accompanying this trough is a strong 180+kt jet maximized around
250mb, which matches up nicely w/GOES HD winds.  South of this is
the atmospheric river contributing to the anomalously high PWATs.

Later today, a shortwave is forecast to spin off the cut-off low off
the coast of SoCal and Baja and approach West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico.  As it does, the RR quadrant of the upper jet will pass
over the region, and in conjunction w/the cold front, isentropic
upglide, and ascent ahead of the shortwave combine to bring a chance
of rain to the region today and tonight.  Overnight mins look too
warm to worry about frozen precip, but best QPF looks to be SE NM
and areas east.

Rain chances taper off late tonight, w/sfc flow veering back to SE
by sunrise Sat, and temps Sat afternoon recovering to well-abv
normal.  Sun, w/good moisture return in place, models develop a weak
dryline mid-CWA, w/enough instability east of this feature for a
slight chance of t-storms Sun afternoon/night.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will dig south out of the PacNW, keeping
SW flow aloft over the region and keeping temps up the first part
of the week.  Unfortunately, a cold front will push into the area
Tue, taking temps well-blo normal by Wed afternoon.  A warming trend
then ensues into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  42  72  46 /  10  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       53  39  68  44 /  30  50  10   0
Dryden                         70  49  75  51 /  10  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  62  45  72  52 /   0  30   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 51  41  63  49 /  40  60  10   0
Hobbs                          50  36  69  42 /  20  50  10   0
Marfa                          64  41  70  43 /  10  30   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           54  41  72  46 /  10  40  10  10
Odessa                         54  40  71  47 /  10  40  10   0
Wink                           58  39  72  45 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10



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