Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 230526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

See aviation discussion below.


VFR conditions are expected to become prevailing or tempo MVFR
ceilings at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals
around 23/12z and continue through late morning. Prevailing VFR
conditions are expected to return by early this afternoon and
through this evening at all terminals with prob 30 MVFR
visibilities in tsra expected this afternoon at KCNM. Winds will
generally be southeast at 15 to 25 mph and gusty at times.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/


See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.


Area radars show diurnally-driven convection over the higher
terrain out west, and hi-res models suggest this should die out
w/loss of daytime heating. Meanwhile, return flow will be on the
increase in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range,
developing into a 40-45kt LLJ overnight, keeping winds up and
bringing in IFR/LIFR cigs to most terminals. Cigs will improve
to VFR after 18Z Sat, w/strong return flow continuing. Convection
will be on the increase Saturday afternoon, mainly over SE NM, and
we`ve inserted a mention for KCNM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/


.Heavy rain and flash flooding possible this weekend into much of
next week...

Our region sits between a large upper trough that has developed
across the West and a ridge over the Ohio River Valley. We are
seeing increasing southwest flow aloft and moist, southeast flow at
the surface this afternoon. Other than some isolated storms in the
higher terrain today, the main show begins Saturday. Rich
moisture will continue to stream across the region as the upper
storm system slowly moves east this weekend. Large scale lift will
first increase across SE NM south to the Presidio Valley late
tonight into Saturday. This is where showers and storms will
become widespread before moving east. A strong to severe storm is
not out of the question, but heavy rain and flash flooding will be
the main threat. More on that in a bit.

Part of the upper trough will lift into the Northern Plains Sunday
into Monday helping to drag the axis of precipitation east into West
Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front will enter the Texas Panhandle Monday
and slowly move south through the week. Another shortwave is
forecast to deepen the upper trough once again over the Great
Basin early next week. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue with
embedded disturbances leading to periods of enhanced lift across
the area. These disturbances are hard to time, but another likely
focus for convection will be the cold front mentioned above. This
front is currently forecast to arrive on Tuesday and slowly make
its way across the area. While the front will bring much cooler
air, it will also tend to be a focus for very heavy rainfall. Not
only will we have the front, but a soon to be named tropical
system in the Pacific will provide upper level moisture. The heavy
rain threat could last into much of next week before the upper
trough lifts north.

Now more on the heavy rain threat. PWAT`s on this morning`s
sounding have already increased to 1.2", nearly 120% of normal for
late September. This number is only expected to increase into next
week. The threat for heavy rain will initially occur Saturday from
Artesia south to Van Horn. This threat shifts into the Permian
Basin and Trans Pecos Sunday into much of next week. It is not out
of the question that some locations across could see over 5 inches
of rain by the end of next week. A flash flood watch will likely
be needed sometime in the coming days. Temperatures will cool
significantly behind the front with highs possibly in the 60`s by
midweek if we can get widespread precipitation.


Big Spring                     87  70  85  67 /  10  30  50  60
Carlsbad                       84  64  85  62 /  70  80  30  20
Dryden                         88  71  88  70 /  20  40  50  50
Fort Stockton                  87  69  81  67 /  20  70  60  40
Guadalupe Pass                 79  61  79  62 /  70  70  20  20
Hobbs                          81  64  77  62 /  50  80  50  30
Marfa                          84  60  78  58 /  50  70  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           87  70  80  68 /  20  50  60  50
Odessa                         86  70  81  68 /  20  60  60  40
Wink                           88  67  85  65 /  40  80  50  30




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