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000
FXUS64 KMAF 141139
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.UPDATE...

Updated first period for pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Went ahead and updated forecast to add isolated snow showers this
morning. Current radar trends have a few light snow showers
moving in from the west... could see a flurry in Tatum.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front has moved through all TAF sites as of 11Z. Main
aviation concerns center around strong winds and MVFR ceilings
this morning. Tight pressure gradient across the area will keep
winds elevated around 20 kts with higher gusts to 30 kts possible
through 17z. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes, wind speeds
will decrease this afternoon and become light this evening. MVFR
stratus will prevail across most sites this before lifting/moving
east around 17-18z. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough swinging across the Rockies overnight and
onto the plains today will bring a drastic change in wx to the
region.  This trough is pushing a strong cold front through the
area this morning.  It has been very gusty behind the front with
some locations reporting gusts over 40kts... blowing dust can be
expected over most of the region this morning.  This front is
expected to reach the Rio Grande by sunrise.  An upper ridge builds
in behind the trough for a few days of mild wx.  Next upper trough
will impact the area Thursday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect most of the day for the
Guadalupe mountains with a Wind Advisory until 18z for the area
except Marfa Plateau and Big Bend.  During the afternoon wind speeds
are expected to decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The Highs last Saturday were in the 90s.  Highs today will be in the
50s for most of the region with 60s for the Pecos River valley and
near the Rio Grande.  Strong cold air advection will continue through
the day.  Will have post frontal clouds moving down across the
Permian Basin this morning but these will dissipate during the day.
By tonight skies will be mostly clear and wind speeds will become
light.  This will result in very efficient radiational cooling in
the dry air.  Late tonight/early tomorrow much of the region may
receive its first freeze in nearly a month.  This is a couple weeks
past the average last freeze date so will continue the Freeze Watch
in effect Tuesday morning for most of the CWA.  The cooldown will be
brief as a south wind and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with
highs back into the 60s and 70s.  Will have another cold front
Thursday but will not be as strong.  By the weekend normal
temperatures return.

Currently there are snow showers over eastern NM and the Panhandle
but this precipitation is tracking east and not expected it to make
it down into the area.  There is hope for some rain by next weekend
as models raise pops and increase qpf but it is too far out to
mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  30  64  39  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  32  63  40  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                56  32  68  40  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  39  67  43  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  35  68  45  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  32  62  45  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  26  64  38  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  27  63  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  30  64  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  32  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  30  70  39  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$