


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
545 FXUS64 KMAF 072310 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 610 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - A few showers and thunderstorms (10-30 percent chance) will continue through the afternoon hours, with the best chance across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain areas of west Texas. - Seasonably hot temperatures continue through Wednesday, with temperatures trending slightly above normal during the latter part of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build across the Desert Southwest this afternoon. Northwesterly to northerly flow aloft is prevalent across west Texas and southeast New Mexico along the eastern periphery of this feature. Abundant deep layer moisture remains in place over a good portion of our forecast area this afternoon with blended total precipitable water values up to 1.4-1.55 inches indicated by GOES-19 satellite imagery. The combination of weak shortwave impulses rounding the upper ridge axis, residual outflow boundaries, and the available moisture and instability have aided in the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and the northern Permian Basin late this morning and early this afternoon. We will maintain low (10-30 percent) probabilities of showers and thunderstorms over these locations through the remainder of the afternoon, with convective potential slightly more favored over southeastern New Mexico and the higher terrain areas. Most of this activity should diminish by early this evening, though there is a slight (10-20 percent) chance that an additional cluster of showers/storms could move S-SE into portions of southeast New Mexico by late this evening. The upper level ridge of high pressure should continue to strengthen and expand across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners Region on Tuesday. Our forecast area will remain situated along the eastern edge of the ridge axis. Residual moisture and afternoon heating/instability could once again aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains as well as portions of southeast New Mexico and into the Marfa Plateau/Big Bend regions Tuesday afternoon. Coverage currently looks to remain fairly limited, so afternoon POPs were kept between 10-20 percent over these locations. One area that we may have to monitor for additional thunderstorm development could be the northern Permian Basin where a couple of CAMs as well as the GFS/ECMWF indicate some potential for convection to drop southward into these locations by Tuesday evening within northerly flow aloft. Confidence was not high enough to make changes to the NBM there (which currently shows up to 10% POPs on Tuesday evening), but this may be something to monitor over the next forecast cycle or two. Overnight lows tonight and Tuesday night should continue to range in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the region, while highs on Tuesday look to range in the 90s over most of the area, except for mid to upper 80s in the mountains and up to around 103 degrees along the Rio Grande. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 No significant changes were made to the extended forecast. Upper level ridging will remain prominent over the southwestern U.S. through the end of the week. Our forecast area will remain located along the eastern fringe of the upper ridge axis Wednesday-Friday. Model solutions generally indicate increased subsidence underneath ridging aloft Wednesday-Thursday, so convective coverage may be limited to only very isolated storm cells over the higher terrain areas both days. Convective chances may begin to increase late this week and into the upcoming weekend as the ridge retrogrades slightly westward, with embedded shortwave impulses within northwesterly flow aloft potentially translating into our forecast area. High temperatures otherwise look to trend upward into the mid to upper 90s across much of the region during the mid to late week time frame. Friday still looks to be the hottest day of the extended forecast period, with readings forecast to reach into the upper 90s to around 102 degrees over much of the region, except for lower 90s in the mountains and up to 103-108 degrees along the Rio Grande. High temperatures may trend just a few degrees lower by this weekend, but still in the 90s for most. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 VFR will continue to prevail with light southeast winds. Isolated storms, for now, are staying well away from terminals, but could provide a brief windshift if affected by an outflow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 93 72 93 / 0 10 10 0 Carlsbad 71 93 71 93 / 0 10 10 0 Dryden 73 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 86 67 87 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 70 91 68 91 / 10 10 10 0 Marfa 63 89 64 88 / 0 20 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 72 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 72 92 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 71 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...29