Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181052
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
552 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will move through the area this morning with gusty
northerly winds. There is a chance of low ceilings behind the
front with HOB having the greatest chances of low ceilings. Winds
will decrease in strength later this afternoon into this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A little relief comes to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico for the
next few days.  WV imagery shows an upper-lvl trough approaching the
Great Lakes/MS Valley, and trailing a cold front into the Srn
Plains.  Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front in the Texas
Panhandle, and hi-res models bring fropa to KMAF at around 14Z or
so.  As would be expected for this time of year, models are all over
the place as to the strength of the front and how far it will make
it south.  Given temps over the past couple of days, and the fact
that it is 85F at KMAF at 09Z, the cooler solutions seem unlikely.
However, the northern half of the CWA at least looks to remain below
the triple digits today, and temps look to top out near-normal
Monday.  Models suggest a few hours of marginal high winds in the
Guadalupes and adjacent plains this morning, but this should be very
brief, and we`ll issue warnings/advisories to cover this.
Unfortunately, models develop very little convection along the
front.  Chances look a little better Monday as a secondary front
sinks south, for perhaps a slight chance nrn zones, but not by much.

Otherwise, beginning Tuesday, the upper ridge begins reasserting
itself over AZ/NM, sending temps back into the widespread triple
digits by Wednesday.  This will continue into the extended, w/little
chance of convection.  However, this could change beyond the
extended.  By Saturday night, long-range model solutions are no
longer in sync, but all do suggest bringing an upper trough out of
Canada and flattening the ridge somewhat, then sending disturbances
through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico for better chances of
convection and cooler temperatures. Stay tuned.

FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will push through the area today with gusty northerly
winds. Temperatures will decrease to below normal values behind the
front. Relative humidity values will generally be above 15 percent
except across the Big Bend and Rio Grande areas. These areas will
continue to have triple digit temperatures through much of the
afternoon. There may be a couple of hours of near critical fire
weather conditions today across the Big Bend and Rio Grande areas as
stronger winds from the front push into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  69  92  72 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       92  67  95  70 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                        104  73  97  75 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                 100  69  96  72 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  64  88  68 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          89  64  91  67 /   0  10  20  10
Marfa                          95  60  93  63 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           97  69  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                         96  69  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                           97  68  96  72 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM MDT this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM MDT this afternoon
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM MDT this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 2 PM CDT
     /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon for Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/



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