Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 252240
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
440 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected to continue into Friday. Gusty winds will
subside at most terminals tonight before increasing again Friday
afternoon. Southerly winds may gust over 25 kts beginning around
26/18Z until sunset. Winds will likely stay above 10 kts through most
of tonight at KMAF and KFST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A fairly nice day is taking shape on this Christmas with highs
mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  An upper trough is migrating
southeastward toward the four corners region today.  A surface
trough is developing in the lee of the Rockies today as a result of
this approaching upper trough.  Surface winds are out of the south
which is aiding in temperatures warming up across the area despite
the cloud cover.

The upper trough will move over New Mexico and Colorado on Friday
with an associated cold front surging southward across the Texas
panhandle.  There is a slight chance of showers across the Guadalupe
Mountains area, southeast New Mexico plains, and Van Horn Corridor
on Friday.  The cold front will move into the CWA Friday night.  The
increase in lift from the cold front and approaching upper trough
will result in a chance of rain mixed with snow across northern
sections of the area.  Temperatures on Saturday will be much colder
with highs about 15 degrees below normal.  There is a slight chance
of rain mixed with snow across the higher terrain of West Texas and
southeast New Mexico. The upper trough will move over the CWA
Saturday night with the rain/snow mixture spreading southward as
well.  QPF amounts do not appear to be very high at this point so do
not expect much in the way of snowfall accumulations except in the
Davis Mountains where the QPF will likely be the highest and
temperatures will be below freezing for a longer period of time.

The previously mentioned upper trough will have moved eastward on
Sunday and weakened as it gets caught up in the upper flow and
conditions will be dry.  Another upper trough will be moving
southeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday which will
result in a broad upper trough over the western 2/3rds of the
conus.  This upper pattern will put the region under mostly zonal
flow aloft with surface winds becoming southwesterly resulting in
compressional warming and warmer temperatures on Sunday.  On Monday,
the upper trough will be elongated toward the west and will extend
across most of the country.  There will be a portion of the upper
trough that will stay across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes
area.  A cold front will push southward on Monday toward the area,
but temperatures are expected to warm up in advance of the front.  A
portion of the upper trough will be digging southward over the
California coast on Tuesday.  The cold front will be through the
area by Tuesday afternoon so temperatures may only get up into the
upper 20s to upper 30s across parts of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico.  There is a chance of precipitation with this
front, and a chance of snow mixed in with the rain is possible given
the falling temperatures.  On Thursday, the upper trough is over
Arizona with a chance of precipitation across the CWA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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