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000
FXUS64 KMAF 062300
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with an abundance of high level clouds are
expected the next 24 hours. Winds overnight and Friday morning
are expected to be mainly southeast at 5 to 15 mph or light and
variable. Winds will become southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Friday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Surface lee trough/low will continue to intensify tonight and
Friday due to an upper level trough translating into the Rockies.
The surface trough will push up a low level thermal ridge and
allow temperatures to climb to well above normal values despite
considerable high cloudiness tonight and Friday.

The aforementioned upper level trough is forecast to split across
the Plains and southwest states by Saturday. The upper trough in
the plains will drive a northern stream cold front south through
the forecast area Saturday bringing much cooler temperatures and a
slight chance of showers to Southeast New Mexico and the Permian
Basin during the day Saturday. Forecast soundings indicate that the
rain could mix with snow mainly in the morning across the northern
Permian Basin and Guadalupe Mountains. No accumulation is expected.

By Saturday night the southern stream upper level low pressure
system will become the main influence by digging south to the
desert southwest Saturday night and then to central Mexico
during the day Sunday. The track of this system favors the higher
terrain of extreme southwest Texas and the Big Bend with a chance
of lowland rain and mountain snow. At this time it looks like a
half inch to one inch of snow is possible in the Davis and Glass
Mountains above 5000 feet late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning. Later shifts will need to monitor. Like Saturday,
temperatures will continue to be below normal Sunday due to the
upper level system in the vicinity.

The upper level low pressure system is forecast to track east
across northern Mexico near the Big Bend Sunday night and Monday.
Although there could be some lingering light precipitation near
the Big Bend Sunday night, the system will for the most part, be
moisture starved this far west, so went with a dry forecast for
now. Temperatures will rebound to above normal again by Monday due
to a surface lee trough/low intensifying.

By late Tuesday another cold front is expected with dry and
cool conditions expected behind it next Wednesday and Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer drier pattern has materialized today with high
temperatures about 5 degrees above normal and min rh/s around 15
pct in most places across the w. Warmer/drier again Friday with a
better downslope component. 85h winds will increase to near 20kts
between 21Z-24Z with min rh/s of 10-15 pct. MSLP Gradient and
assocd trof axis is not favorable for wind across the plains, but
will increase late in Eddy Co Plains. West winds near 20kts
primarily favor short duration critical wx in lower elevations of
GDP Mtns, like GDP Pass and around Dunken Fri PM. For now will not
issue a watch/warning, noting that it seems to be good fire danger
statement material.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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