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000
FXUS64 KMAF 212329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak front will make for mostly ne winds less than 10kts overnight
and satellite indicates clouds will decrease this evening. A more
definitive se wind will develop Tue AM with 15G25kts expected to
be fairly widespread by mid/late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite is showing convection in the higher elevations
from the Guadalupe Mountains, down into the Big Bend this
afternoon. A weak cold front has brought lower dewpoints which are
only in the 30s in these areas, thus instability is limited and do
not expect near the coverage seen yesterday. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow, and models show southeasterly flow pushing a mid
level theta-e ridge west of the Pecos River which may be enough
for more isolated mountain convection.

An upper level trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday
pushing very dry air into west Texas and sharpening a dryline in
the central CWA. There will be plenty of shear and instability
along and east of the dryline for severe thunderstorm development;
however, a mid level cap will limit the highest severe potential
to the northeastern Permian Basin and areas further north where
lift associated with the upper trough will be greater. It should
be noted though that if any storms manage to develop further south
then they could go severe as well given similar instability and
shear. The trough pushes a weak front through Thursday, but
westerly flow will bring well above normal temperatures Friday and
Saturday.

Models disagree on the strength and amplitude of another upper
trough moving into the four corners region Saturday. The GFS is
deeper than the ECMWF, and develops more convection along a
dryline in west Texas. Will not introduce PoPs yet since this is
at the end of the forecast period, but it is interesting that the
GFS ensembles agree on the deeper solution so hopefully we can
look for more rain chances.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough moving into the Central Plains will bring
increasing westerly flow Wednesday, pushing very dry air into the
central Permian Basin. A dryline will sharpen and become
stationary denoting a boundary from the dry air and more moist air
to the east. It is likely that critical fire weather conditions
will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico,
and this could spread further east into the western Permian Basin
and upper Trans Pecos in Texas. For now though will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for southeastern New Mexico, where confidence in
meeting criteria is greatest, and will allow other shifts to
extend the watch further east and south if necessary. Winds will
diminish Thursday as the trough passes east easing the fire
weather threat, but critical conditions may occur again Thursday
in the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be strongest.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$