Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191131
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Tempo MVFR conditions in thunderstorms are expected at KMAF
through 13z this morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24
hours. West winds will increase by mid to late morning at 15 to 25
mph and gusty and continue through sunset. A cold front will push
through the terminals tonight resulting in a wind shift to the
northeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing this morning from
the central to northeastern Permian Basin. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch Box # 204 is in effect for portions of the central and
eastern Permian Basin until 9 am cdt. These storms are forming
along a retreating dryline. Impressive upper level divergence
between a southern stream jet and subtropical jet with decent
shear is helping to ignite this activity along with a 40 knot low
level jet located across the eastern Permian Basin. Locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will also be a concern this morning as
training takes place fueled by the low level jet perpendicular to
the dryline. Conditions should improve significantly by this
afternoon as the dryline moves east of the region as westerly flow
increases aloft.

By tonight the associated cold front will move south through the
forecast area. Convergence along the front fueled by additional
jet energy could ignite a few strong to severe thunderstorms
across the extreme eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region.

More thunderstorms are possible this weekend especially from the
southeast Permian Basin south and west to the lower Trans Pecos
and Big Bend Region. This will be due to the increasing influence
of the left exit region of the subtropical jet with its embedded
shortwaves. It will be much cooler Saturday and Sunday with much
below normal temperatures expected as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

More thunderstorms are expected across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Monday and Tuesday, aided by low level moisture
interacting with the persistent upper level jet and its embedded
shortwaves in the west to northwest flow aloft. A northern stream
cold front is also expected to push south Monday night and
Tuesday, providing another focus for precipitation development.
Temperatures will remain well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

Precipitation chances should be on the decrease with increasing
temperatures next Wednesday and Thursday as upper ridging
develops over the area.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will issue a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains late this morning through early this
evening. Minimum rh/s are expected to drop to 5 to 15 percent
behind a Pacific front in these areas with breezy 20 foot
westerly winds. Although 20 foot winds will be marginal in the
southeast New Mexico plains, fuels are very dry their.

A cold front will move south tonight with cooler and more moist
conditions expected this weekend. This should help ease fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  54  78  57 /  30  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  50  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         97  67  81  64 /  10  20  20  40
Fort Stockton                  92  57  81  60 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 78  49  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          84  46  77  51 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                          85  46  79  54 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           93  55  80  57 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         92  54  80  57 /  20  10   0  10
Wink                           94  54  82  58 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/12



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