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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242051
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
251 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
It has turned out to be a beautiful day with mostly clear skies
and temperatures around normal. Northwesterly upper flow will
bring a cold front into the area tomorrow, but there will be
little if any cold air behind it so expect temperatures to be much
like today. An upper ridge will move across west Texas Monday and
break down leaving westerly upper flow Tuesday and Wednesday
sending temperatures above normal. A weak trough Monday night will
only bring a slight chance for rain showers for areas west of the
Pecos River.

The GFS has been very consistent and continues to show a good
chance for precipitation late next week. The ECMWF is trending
towards the GFS and now all models are developing an upper level
low near the Baja of Mexico with a highly amplified ridge laying
over the Pacific Northwest. This splits the jet into two streams
but a particularly strong southern stream will advect moisture out
of the Pacific and into New Mexico and Texas. Precipitation would
develop Thursday night and continue through the weekend. The GFS
remains most aggressive with QPF amounts though all models are
showing the areal coverage to be extensive. It should be noted
that PoPs are quite high for Day 6/7 in the forecast with 40-50
percent across most of the region.

The northern stream jet will bring a cold front on Thursday and
modestly cooler temperatures. Most of the cooling may actually
come from cloud cover and precipitation thus the precipitation
type will be rain. The upper low only slowly moves east across
northern Mexico so southwest flow ahead of the low will provide
warm air advection and keep the p-type rain through Saturday and
the end of the forecast period. Sunday (just outside of this
forecast), another front may arrive with colder air and the chance
for the rain to change to a wintry precip type so this system will
need to be closely monitored.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  59  31  67  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  61  33  69  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                30  56  29  64  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  36  63  36  68  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           35  59  34  69  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  52  33  61  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   30  56  30  65  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   27  56  27  63  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  60  32  67  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  34  60  32  67  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  61  30  68  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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