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000
FXUS64 KMAF 071112
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
512 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
Cold surface ridge axis from central Texas to central Oklahoma
will move little today. This will allow very cold air to continue
to funnel southwestward across the forecast area. With abundant
cloud cover expected, temperatures will rise little today from
current values. In addition moist isentropic lift will combine
with warm advection and upslope flow to result in patchy freezing
drizzle across the mountains this morning and throughout the day
across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Don`t think that
any freezing precipitation would be significant enough to warrant
the issuance of an advisory. Upglide will decrease tonight so
am not expecting any precipitation. There could be some freezing
fog however mainly north of the Pecos River. Despite a decent
amount of cloud cover expected tonight temperatures will be
very cold ranging from the teens in the Permian Basin and
mountains to mainly the 20s elsewhere.

By Sunday the next upper trough will amplify as it drops
southeastward over the Rockies Saturday night with the initial
shortwave trough ejecting eastward from it resulting in the base
of the upper level trough skirting northern fringes of the
forecast area Sunday. This will allow the cold airmass over the
region to be dislodged as westerly downslope winds develop to the
east of the higher terrain. Temperatures will warm from the 40s in
the northeast Permian Basin to near 70 along the Rio Grande River.
The westerly downslope flow could be strong enough to generate
strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains Sunday and later shifts
will need to monitor for a possible high wind watch or warning.

Cold temperatures will return to the region Sunday night and
Monday as another arctic airmass drops south through the region in
the wake of this upper level trough. Moderating temperatures are
expected behind this trough next Tuesday through Friday but
temperatures are still expected to be much below normal. A couple
of weak southern stream disturbances could generate some light
precipitation in a couple periods in the extended forecast but
confidence was not high enough to mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 19  14  50  20  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              18  14  48  20  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                27  21  57  23  /   0  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  34  25  57  25  /   0  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           31  20  64  24  /   0  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          30  20  48  25  /   0  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   20  16  52  19  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   37  16  60  23  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    20  13  51  18  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  20  14  50  21  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    29  20  58  26  /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12