


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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595 FXUS64 KMAF 090532 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - A few showers and thunderstorms (10-30 percent chance) are expected this afternoon and evening, with the best chance across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain areas of west Texas. - Seasonably hot temperatures continue through Wednesday, with temperatures trending slightly above normal during the latter part of the week. - Near normal temperatures and low rain chances return over the weekend and early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A ridge of high pressure builds over northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest to start off the short term period. This feature inches closer to our area Wednesday afternoon an into Thursday as shortwave trough swings from the Pacific Northwest to the Central Great Plains. However, today, we will be on the eastern edge of the ridge and subsidence will be weaker compared to areas out west. This allows for low (10-30%) rain chances through this evening over the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico, where daytime heating and outflow from other storms up north may help trigger shower/storm development. Some of the strongest storms will have the potential to produce damaging winds and large hail, though coverage shall be sparse. Rain chances come to an end overnight and temperatures cool to the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday, highs top out mainly in the 90s, under sunny to mostly sunny skies. wednesday night lows will be similar to the night before. Warmer conditions are on tap at the beginning of the long term period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain elongated from southern California and the Baja region to southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions are anticipated across the region under the influence of this feature on Thursday afternoon. A few thunderstorms developing along the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico may round the edge of the ridge axis and push into portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and possibly the northwest Permian Basin Thursday night, so will maintain a mention of isolated (10-20 percent chance) showers and thunderstorms over these locations then. Additional weak shortwave impulses along the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge axis and an increase in deep layer moisture will support an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night, with the best chances favored over western and northern portions of our forecast area. Heat will otherwise continue to build during the latter part of the week, with highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees over much of the area on Thursday (and up to 104 degrees or so along the Rio Grande). Highs by Friday still look to trend slightly hotter in the mid/upper 90s to around 102 degrees over much of the region and up to 104-108 degrees along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows will generally range in the 70s, except 60s in higher elevation areas. The upper level ridge axis still looks to retrograde westward this weekend into early next week, while another upper ridge becomes centered along the Gulf Coast states. Medium range solutions generally are in consensus with showing increased boundary layer moisture over our forecast area Saturday-Monday between these two features which would favor the daily development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs may trend just a few degrees lower this weekend into Monday of next week, or generally near to slightly below average for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 VFR conditions and light winds continue the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 71 97 73 98 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 72 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 69 91 72 92 / 0 0 10 20 Hobbs 69 93 71 95 / 0 0 10 20 Marfa 63 92 66 93 / 0 10 10 50 Midland Intl Airport 73 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 72 95 74 95 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 71 97 73 98 / 0 0 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...10