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000
FXUS64 KMAF 021131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
526 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings and visibilities are expected to last through this
morning with gradual improvement around 18z.  Fog and freezing fog
are also possible this morning.  VFR conditions should return to the
area by 22z.  There is a possibility of low ceilings and
visibilities after 00z for some of the terminals.  Winds will remain
fairly light throughout the period and will become easterly then
southeasterly by 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Pessimism and persistence rule, as much of West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico remain socked in w/stratus and fog.  Current sfc obs show
this backed up against the mtns, w/widespread FZFG over much of the
Permian Basin and Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  However, w/temps only
near freezing (as opposed to well-blo the last few days), we`ll
continue to handle these hazards in the HWO and with an SPS.  Over
the past few days, models have been way too optimistic in scattering
things out by late morning/early afternoon, yet this has not panned
out.  Although sfc flow will veer to SE later today, we`re not
betting on things improving appreciably, and so have stuck to the
lower end of guidance on temps.  Sfc winds will continue veering to
SW overnight as a sfc trough over CO moves out into the Central
Plains.  An upper trough making landfall on SoCal will begin sending
disturbances thru SW flow aloft as soon as tonight, favoring
isolated -SHRA omtns out west.

Tuesday, w/SW flow at the sfc, a downslope warming component and
decreasing clouds should allow temps to warm to above normal for the
first time in awhile.  However, some high clouds will still be
present and, w/all the precip of the past few days and saturated
soils, warming will be retarded somewhat.  Therefore, we again
prefer to stay on the lower end of guidance temps.  Meanwhile, the
west coast trough will dig down to Baja, open, and move thru Sonora
towards the region.  Ahead of this feature, a sfc trough and
shortwave will move thru West Texas Tuesday night, w/forecast
soundings showing enough moisture/instability down south for a
mention of isolated thunder.

Wednesday, winter returns as a strong cold front moves thru the
area.  The GFS is fastest, w/fropa at KMAF at around 14Z, followed
by the NAM at 18Z, and the ECMWF after.  Using a blend, temps will
drop throughout the day in the NE, w/a normal diurnal curve down by
the Rio Grande.  As the front moves SW, overrunning will commence as
winds begin to veer, w/a changeover to winter precip in the NE
beginning as soon as 18Z Wednesday.  Unfortunately, this far out,
models are in big disagreement over several factor which will
determine type/extent of the winter precip.  For one, as noted
above, models differ on timing of the front, and also on strength.
But the biggest difference is vertical saturation of the column.
The NAM soundings portray rather shallow moisture, favoring a
rain/freezing rain scenario, whereas the GFS saturates the column
deeply and well through the dendritic growth zones, favoring
sleet/snow.  This far out, we`ll not get too specific yet, as models
will/should come more in agreement as the event
nears.

Otherwise, this should taper off over the SW zones Thursday, w/a
slow warmup thru Sunday, but temps should stay blo normal in dry, NW
flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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