Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 160426
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1026 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest obs/radar/satellite imagery shows precip has cleared West
texas and Southeast new Mexico, and latest models suggest no
wraparound/redevelopment overnight. We`ll do a quick update to
remove rain chances, and update other parameters as necessary.
Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough now ejecting NE thru the S.
Plains, having scoured all terminals to VFR except maybe KHOB. No
obs for KHOB are available, but last obs had LIFR cigs. Otherwise,
all other terminals should keep VFR cigs next 24 hours. Sfc flow
should remain SW-W thru 00Z Tue, after which light return flow
develops. The only wild card overnight will be fog development.
For now, we`ll continue a mention of MVFR visibilities around
sunrise KMAF/KHOB/KINK, and update as needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/44



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