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000
FXUS64 KMAF 050305
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
903 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2013

.UPDATE...
The much anticipated Arctic cold front is, not surprisingly, running
ahead of schedule. As of 03Z, surface obs indicate the front is
located near a Lamesa to Colorado city line and pushing southeast
rapidly. This timing is about 3 hours faster than previously thought
forecasted, therefore updated the winds to account for this change.
Also, winds across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
have dropped below warning/advisory criteria so an update was needed
to remove wording from zones. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast
tonight looks to be on track and no additional changes were made.
Zones will be sent shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2013/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front hung up NW-SE across the
Texas Panhandle/S. Plains, where it has been most of the
afternoon. Latest NAM continues to begin moving it SW after 00Z,
and buffer soundings fropa it thru KMAF at around 00Z, and most
other terminals around 13Z. It stalls out around KCNM during the
day Thursday. The latest RUC moves the front a little faster, and
we`ll update timing as necessary. Attm, cigs look to stay just
above MVFR everywhere but KHOB, which could see MVFR cigs around
18Z. -RA will accompany fropa all terminals except KMAF, where
buffer soundings suggest a chance of FZRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2013/

DISCUSSION...

Today looks like our last warm day for a while before Arctic air
moves in tomorrow and stays around for much of the next week.

Strong winds over the Guadalupe Mountains continue this afternoon
with some locations still gusting over 55 mph. Will keep the High
Wind Warning going through this evening when the strong winds should
begin to diminish. Winds have also picked up across northern Eddy
and Lea counties so have opted to include them in a short fused Wind
Advisory ending this evening.

This afternoons warm temperatures will soon be a distant memory as
we await a strong cold front set to arrive tonight. The Arctic front
is currently sitting across the Big Country and southern TX
Panhandle as diurnal effects have stalled it. The front will get
a strong push later tonight and should move through most of the
Permian Basin by sunrise Thursday. Temperatures will fall quickly
into the 30s behind the front with even some locations staying in
the 20s tomorrow afternoon across the far northern Permian Basin
and western Low Rolling Plains. At the same time, precipitation
will begin to break out across with area within moderate
isentropic lift. Temperatures will be cold enough for freezing
rain and possibly some sleet over northern parts of the Permian
Basin. With confidence increasing in the frozen precipitation,
will issue a winter weather advisory for the northern Permian
Basin and western Low Rolling Plains until Friday morning. These
areas could see ice accumulations up to 1/4" by Thursday
afternoon; then mix with sleet and snow Thursday night and Friday
morning. More counties will likely be added to the advisory
overnight as freezing temperatures will be delayed until Thursday
afternoon and night further south and west. Models indicate more
precipitation will develop over the area Thursday night as the
cold air deepens. This may cause major travel problems by Friday
morning especially across the Permian Basin where the heaviest
sleet and freezing rain is expected. We could also see an inch or
so of snow from Lamesa over to Snyder. Precip should end by mid
morning Friday leaving behind very chilly temperatures and cloudy
skies. Temperatures then nosedive into the teens and 20s by
Saturday morning with areas north of the Pecos River likely not
making it above freezing during the day. There could also be some
freezing drizzle across the Permian Basin Saturday and Saturday
night as the low levels of the atmosphere saturates.

We try to warm a bit Sunday, but am very skeptical of the guidance
as the Arctic air makes it all the way to the Gulf coast. Will stay
below guidance for now and keep high temperatures mostly in the 40s
and 50s.

Yet another shot of Arctic air will arrive Monday with well below
normal temperatures expected into next week.

hluchan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 34  36  21  31  /  10  60  60  10
BIG SPRING TX              33  35  22  30  /  20  60  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                51  52  29  39  /  10  40  50   0
DRYDEN TX                  55  62  36  42  /  10  30  40  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  48  29  38  /  10  50  50  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  49  30  36  /  10  50  40   0
HOBBS NM                   40  40  21  32  /  10  50  50   0
MARFA TX                   46  61  33  47  /  10  50  40  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  34  23  32  /  20  60  60  10
ODESSA TX                  36  37  23  33  /  10  60  60  10
WINK TX                    45  47  26  38  /  10  50  50  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM MST Friday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Northern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Gaines...
     Howard...Martin...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

44/27