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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
persist at all terminals. Isolated to scattered convection possible
once again this afternoon and may briefly affect a few sites. Any
storm will be capable of heavy rainfall which would lower vis for a
bit.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over Srn NV this morning stretches to the
Mississippi River.  This ridge will shift east through the week as
East Coast trough moves off with ridge becoming centered over KS by
midweek and over TN by the weekend.  This will allow disturbances to
come off the Gulf and move under the ridge toward this area
potentially becoming a wx producer later in the week. By early next
week a new ridge will build over the west.

Temperatures will be close to normal most of the week warming into
the weekend.  For most of the region that will mean highs in the mid
to upper 90s.  Persistent S/SE flow will keep good low level
moisture in the area which will tend to keep overnight lows
elevated. Morning lows should mainly be in the 70s with some cooler
readings over the higher elevations.

With little change in the day to day pattern expect storms again
today.  With good low level moisture... daytime heating... outflow
boundaries... and orographic lift over the higher elevations storms
should kick off by afternoon.  Most storms/highest pops will be west
of the Pecos but will go ahead and leave isolated pops up across the
Permian Basin today.  Should see similar conditions Tuesday with
most of the pops west of the Pecos.  On Wednesday convection looks
less and cut it down to a slight chance over the mountains and
little elsewhere.  Low chances of storms will continue through the
extended forecast mainly over the higher elevations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       95  71  96  70 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                         96  74  93  73 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  94  71  93  70 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 86  67  85  66 /  30  20  20  20
Hobbs                          93  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          85  61  85  61 /  40  20  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           96  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           97  72  96  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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