Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 222248
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect thunderstorms to become more widespread through 23/00Z, so have
included a mention of TSRA in all area terminals.  Gusty and
variable winds could accompany any of the storms, in addition to
hail.  Think thunderstorms could be east of all area terminals by
23/04Z too.  A cold front will move south into the area late
tonight with gusty north winds behind it.  Ceilings will lower to
MVFR behind the front for a few hours, and could dip to IFR.
Expect VFR conditions areawide after 23/17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM
tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw
across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W
TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. Lift will be
modulated by mid level LR`s 7h-5h of 8-8.5 LR`s and MLCAPES of
1000-1500 J/KG result. A low level thermal/moisture gradient will
develop across ern NM too. This is a good pattern for tstms (MCS)
to develop in, bulk shear is forecast to be over 50kts and severe
storms are expected. 0-1km and 0-3km SRH do depict 300 m2/s2 or so
along the outflow, but LCLs are high, thus a non-zero probability
of a tornado. NAM12 continues to have the QPF max across the e
and GFS a little farther w. Confidence is high that severe storms
will come out somewhere between INK-SNK. There could even be 2
separate areas of storms, one that initiates in far SE NM or W PB
and another off to the nw initiating in ern NM or the wrn S Plain.
The forecast already has high PoPs in and will probably not make
too much change. Recent heavy rainfall across
Mitchell/Scurry/Howard Counties does raise concern for at least
localized flash flooding and responses along Colorado River and
tributaries. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in
agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be
noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely
break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a
strong trend from the lower left to upper right. 85h temps 31C and
downslope wind will easily push temps into the U90s-L100s.
Dryline will probably hang up across far srn CWFA, may be storm in
Terrell Co.. A little cooler but still hot Fri-Sat with a
possible front on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  72  52  85 /  80  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       55  74  51  91 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         64  78  57  86 /  30  40  10   0
Fort Stockton                  59  72  54  89 /  50  40  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 54  68  52  85 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          52  69  48  84 /  60  20  10   0
Marfa                          53  75  48  88 /  30  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  72  53  85 /  70  40  10   0
Odessa                         56  71  53  85 /  70  40  10   0
Wink                           58  74  52  89 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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