Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 051953
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Weak northwesterly to westerly flow aloft will prevail through the
next 7 days with temperatures initially moderating this afternoon as
a result.  But an upper trough will broaden/deepen over the central
U.S. through midweek, and aid an arctic airmass dropping into the
region beginning Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Precipitation chances will be nil the rest of today through
Wednesday due to dry, westerly flow aloft.  However, the modified
southern extent of an arctic airmass will push south to near the
Pecos River Tuesday morning, with high temperatures ending up being
5 to 15 degrees below normal over locations along and north of
Interstate 20 Tuesday afternoon.  This airmass will continue to
reside over eastern portions of the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and keep easternmost areas a little below normal
in the afternoon.

On Wednesday evening, the arctic airmass will begin to impinge upon
locations north of Interstate 20 in earnest, with much colder air
spreading rapidly southward across the Rio Grande by Thursday
morning.  Northerly surface winds of at least 15-25 mph will drop
wind chill values to the teens and 20s behind the front.  Low
temperatures Thursday morning will end up in the upper teens north
to near 40 along the Rio Grande, with highs in the 30s over all but
40s along the Rio Grande. There could be strong winds in Guadalupe
Pass late Wednesday night and thursday morning behind the front,
so will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Of more concern will be a weak mid level shortwave trough, the RRQ
of a 110+kt h25 jet and low level upslope flow possibly providing
enough lift for precipitation to break out along and behind the
front.  Forecast model soundings indicate there could be a mix of
light freezing rain, sleet and snow from the higher terrain of
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas, eastward across the Stockton
Plateau, southern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos through midday
Thursday.  Will continue with a 20 to 30 Pops in these areas, but
forego issuance of a Winter Storm Watch due to expected low amounts.
Will reissue a Special Weather Statement to highlight colder
conditions, and perhaps wintry precipitation.  As we near these time
frames, a Winter Weather Advisory may be issued for late Wednesday
night and Thursday morning.

A widespread hard freeze is expected over all but the Presidio Valley
and Big Bend Park Thursday morning, but these areas will likely see
a hard freeze Friday morning.  After that, temperatures will begin
to moderate Friday afternoon, with near to above normal temperatures
Saturday through Monday. It will remain dry during this tome too.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  48  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       37  55  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  63  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  40  59  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  55  40  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          32  46  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          31  61  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  51  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         35  52  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           35  56  36  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/67



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