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000
FXUS64 KMAF 292331
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will remain elevated and gusty out of the northeast until
around 06z when they will weaken and shift more toward the east.
Areas of light rain showers will be present lasting through the day
Friday.  Rain mixed with snow and sleet will be possible after 12z
Friday for CNM and HOB.  Low ceilings will begin coming into the
area between 14z and 18z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Models are in decent agreement regarding the progression of
a southern stream upper low which will dominate sensible weather
across the region tonight through the upcoming weekend. Recent
water vapor imagery indicates a low pressure circulation currently
off the southwest California/Baja coast, which is progged to
eventually cut off and slowly sink south before progressing
eastward over the coming days. Deep southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of the approaching system will allow for significant Pacific
moisture to overspread the area, with precipitable water values
from 0.80 to around 1.00 inch expected by Friday night,
approaching 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of
year. All that said, expectation is for precipitation to begin
from west to east late tonight, though some timing uncertainties
exist due to a dry layer below 750mb that will have to be overcome
before any precipitation reaches the ground. This system, unlike
the previous, is not accompanied by an Arctic intrusion. Thus,
temperatures should remain around or above freezing for the
duration, yielding a cold rain for all but the Guadalupe
Mountains, northern Lea, and northwestern Eddy counties in New
Mexico, where model soundings indicate probabilities for sleet to
mix in with the rain mainly from late tonight through Friday. The
aforementioned locations will likely see a mix of rain and sleet,
with the greatest chance for accumulating sleet and perhaps snow
in the Guadalupe Mountains, where up to 3 inches of accumulation
are possible. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the
Guadalupe Mountains from late tonight through Friday afternoon,
please see the appropriate product for details.

By Friday evening, widespread moderate rain is expected across the
area, which could become heavy at times. Locally heavy rainfall
could cause localized flooding problems overnight Friday night,
particularly in areas with poor drainage and traditional low water
crossings. As the closed upper low slowly drifts eastward across
northern Mexico on Saturday the axis of heaviest precipitation
will shift eastward toward central Texas. However, dynamic support
thanks to the nose/left exit region of a 85-90kt 300mb jet as
well as widespread 500mb height falls and increasing midlevel lapse
rates, mainly south and west of the Pecos River in Texas, support
the potential for at least isolated thunderstorms during the day
on Saturday. While the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted
portions of southwest Texas for thunderstorms Saturday, no severe
weather is currently anticipated.

A cold front will move southward through the area on Sunday,
helping to push the greatest chance for continued rainfall to the
south, though the accompanying cooler air is not expected to last
very long. However, given ample moisture in place ahead of the
front, there is another chance of thunderstorms from the Trans
Pecos southward to the Big Bend Area during the day on Sunday.
Severe Weather is not anticipated with any storms that develop on
Sunday, though model soundings indicate CAPE values around 850
J/kg in the aforementioned areas, thus, gusty winds and perhaps
even some small hail could be possible.

Through the weekend, continued precipitation and ample cloudcover
will keep temperatures from varying too much, with highs from
around 40 to the mid 50s Friday through Sunday, and lows in the
low 30s to low 40s tonight through Saturday night, and then
dropping into the 20s to 30s behind the front Sunday night.

By Monday upper low will be well to the s and temperatures will
warm slightly, but still below normal. A more noticeable warming
trend will develop Tue when 85h thermal ridging develops and high
temps climb back into the 60s. Meanwhile another cold surge will
be plowing swd thru the nrn high plains arriving in W TX/SE NM
Wed. Blended data does look abit warm. Surface ridging surge again
Thur AM and Thur PM will probably be a little cooler than Wed PM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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