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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201909
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Looking at a few fairly quiet, but hot days this week before our
weather becomes more active this weekend. An upper ridge remains
anchored over the Desert SW this afternoon while newly formed
Tropical Storm Cindy was taking shape over the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Our region will be sandwiched in between these two systems
the next few days bringing us northerly flow aloft. Subsidence
should keep things mostly dry and a developing thermal ridge over
the area will help temperatures climb back to near 100 through
Thursday. The only caveat would be that if thunderstorms form to
our north, upper flow could bring them into our region late at
night. The best chance for this to occur would be Wednesday and
Thursday nights as a couple of shortwaves rotate around the upper
ridge. Models have cooled a few degrees from what they were
indicating Friday for high temperatures, but near record highs
still look possible. Heat products may again be needed for parts
of the region.

Late this week, a fairly intense shortwave will dig into the Plains
sending a strong cold front south. The GFS is quickest with the
front while the ECMWF is still a full 24 hours behind. The Canadian
has trended toward the GFS so wouldn`t be surprised if the ECMWF
eventually comes around to a faster solution. Either way,
temperatures cool significantly behind the front, but rain chances
are still up in the air. Models are split on whether moisture will
stick around behind the front. Mid level heights do lower so will
keep modest precip chances in for now until models agree a little
better. The upper ridge looks to build back across the area later
next week. Expect warmer temperatures and dry conditions by then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  97  71  98 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       73 102  73 105 /  10  10  20   0
Dryden                         73  99  74 102 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  72  99  74 104 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  95  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          70  97  70 100 /   0  10  20   0
Marfa                          64  95  69  99 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74  98  74 100 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         74  98  74 100 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           72 101  72 104 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/29