Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 171615
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1015 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc winds will veer to SW this afternoon, scouring out the lower
levels to VFR all terminals, and continue veering to W after
sunrise Thursday. Buffer soundings suggest LIFR stratus trying to
develop KHOB/KINK shortly after sunrise, but this will be brief.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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