725
FXUS64 KMAF 071134
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
634 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

- Low to medium rain chances today (10-30% SE NM to Big Bend and
  eastern Permian Basin, with highest chances in the Davis
  Mountains).

- Seasonably hot through mid-week, getting hotter to end the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Recent summers have seen an upper level high either over or near
our CWA causing temperatures to stay above normal and keeping us
dry. This summer the high has failed to take hold for any length
of time allowing temperatures to remain closer to climatological
norms while also allowing for fairly widespread rainfall. The
short term forecast continues this trend. A building ridge over
the western U.S. will be too far west to exert a strong influence
in the lee of the Rockies. Deep layer easterly flow advects in
modified and cooler gulf air keeping highs near normal with most
locations seeing highs in the 90s. A weak mid and upper level
trough will be centered over the Permian Basin causing a field of
cumulus clouds and perhaps isolated showers over the basin with
isolated to scattered showers and storms from southeastern New
Mexico to the Big Bend, especially in the higher elevations and
adjacent plains where orographic lift will help initiate
convection.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The upper level situation changes later this week as a trough
dampens the ridge to the west, but elongates the ridge axis
eastward increasing subsidence and thus high temperatures.
Highs Thursday and Friday increase to the upper 90s to low 100s
for many locations. The heat will be short lived as the trough
moves into the northern Great Plains, eroding the influence of the
high over the South Plains. Temperatures over the weekend ease
back to near normal and lower heights aloft increase rain chances
slightly as isolated showers once again develop.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conditions and southerly to southeasterly winds are expected
to prevail through the period. More showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated to begin developing this afternoon across the higher
terrain and mainly west of all terminals. -TSRA PROB30s were not
included due to the low confidence of storm coverage and
positioning near the sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  72  93  72 /  10   0  10  10
Carlsbad                 92  71  92  72 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                   93  74  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            93  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           85  68  87  68 /  30  10  10  10
Hobbs                    91  70  91  69 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                    87  64  88  63 /  30   0  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     92  73  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   91  72  92  72 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     93  71  94  71 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11