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000
FXUS64 KMAF 131740
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 13/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SIG WX NIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 14/18Z. WE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
BIG BEND WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KPEQ, KMAF, AND KFST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY PICK UP AROUND
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS WE MIX DOWN A DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL JET.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT AREA TERMINALS LOOK MARGINALLY BETTER
JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARMER TODAY EXCEPT IN THE BIG BEND WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS SPREADING THE
CONVECTION INTO THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN...UNFORTUNATELY
LIMITED MOISTURE MEANS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST.

THURSDAY BEGINS A PERIOD OF ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A DRY
AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30C WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO MOVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREAWIDE WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE TRANS PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS. CANNOT RULE OUT
HIGHS EXCEEDING 100 IN THE PERMIAN BASIN THOUGH WILL NOT BE SO
AGGRESSIVE DUE TO ONLY MODEST WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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