Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 231759
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1259 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are the main concern this afternoon/evening, mainly
for MAF and FST. While it looks like activity should be just east
of the terminals, have not included mention at this time.
Amendments may be needed if storms develop further west or if
outflow boundaries look to affect the terminals. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will continue for most of the area, with low ceilings
again possible late tonight/early Tuesday for HOB and MAF. Gusty
W/SW winds are expected west of the dryline, with S/SE winds to
the east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

MVFR stratus affecting HOB and MAF early this morning while all
other terminals remain VFR. Low cigs will lift/scatter around mid
morning with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. Gusty SW winds
return to HOB, CNM and INK this afternoon as the dryline makes
another run east through the region. Elsewhere, gusty S/SE winds can
be expected. Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening however due to uncertainty regarding exact timing/location
of convective initiation, will not include mention in the TAFs at
this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A large upper low has crossed this morning into Canada but a trough
extends SW back to the Pacific coast.  This trough will dig
southward moving to the 4 corners region by early Thursday. As it
swings across the Panhandle and lifts NE another upper low will move
down across the NW. This will continue the active pattern for the
region with severe wx possible again today.

Little change in the overall pattern with storms expected over the
east again today as dryline once again expected to be focus for
convection.  Have some patchy low clouds this morning moving up from
the SE and some high clouds spreading in from the west.  A surface
trough extending down across the area will help sharpen the dryline
and steady southerly flow east of the dryline will keep dewpts high.
Dewpts at 08z range from 27 in the west to 73 in the east.

Severe storms will be possible today... supercells with very
large hail... damaging wind... and a few tornadoes.  Latest SWODY1
for today has kept a slight risk along and east of a Seminole to
Marathon line but has added enhanced wording along and east of a
Lamesa to Fort Stockton due to high CAPE... improved shear... and
the expected arrival of a shortwave.  Have increased pops today and
tonight for Pecos Co. as multiple models develop qpf blowing up there...
could see a return of the Pecos Co. supercell.  Highest pops next
24hrs only in the 30-40 range just because not expecting that much
coverage... but fairly confident the storms will develop.  Day2
only catches the NE Permian Basin in the slight risk.  In the
extended mainly low pops continue with storm chances increasing
next weekend.

Temps at MAF briefly shot up yesterday afternoon as the dryline
mixed east before quickly retreating.  High at MAF yesterday reached
98 degrees... one of the hottest places in the state.  Will go above
guidance temps again today and lows will remain on the high side.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy conditions expected across western portions of the
region once again today as a dryline pushes east through the
afternoon. Minimum relative humidity will quickly drop below 15
percent across SE NM south through the Davis Mountains and Big Bend
regions. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
across the Guadalupe Mountains where westerly winds will increase to
25-30 mph sustained. As a result, the Fire Weather Watch has been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for this area for the afternoon and
evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are expected once
again Tuesday across the Guadalupe Mountains as well as the
southeast New Mexico plains and a Fire Weather Watch is now in
effect for these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  93  70  94 /  30  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       59  94  60  93 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         72  96  74  95 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  94  66  94 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 60  86  58  84 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          61  92  60  91 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          50  85  52  87 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  70  95 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         70  95  69  95 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           65  98  63  97 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$



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