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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A developing
surface trough across extreme west Texas is expected to
produce isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight
across areas mainly west of the Pecos River. Expected
areal coverage of storms is too low to mention at any
of the terminals. Southeast winds will increase to 10
to 20 mph and gusty by mid morning and continue through
this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67