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000
FXUS64 KMAF 131104
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
604 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR ceilings may affect KHOB through 13/14Z with VFR conditions
expected at the rest of the area terminals.  Thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon, but probability is too low to include at all
airports, except KCNM around 14/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

Earlier storms dissipated across the SE Permian Basin following an
evening of heavy rain across this area. Renewed development
behind an outflow boundary now being seen from south of Midland
east to Garden City. This activity is expected to dissipate later
this morning toward sunrise. Should see a lull in activity this
morning before more scattered storms develop across the area this
afternoon. Models show another disturbance embedded within weak
westerly flow aloft slated to move across the area late today. We
saw very heavy rainfall and even a severe storm from convection
yesterday. PWATs above 1.5" and slow moving storms will allow for
efficient rain producers. Locally heavy rain could lead to flash
flooding, especially where higher amounts of rain occurred
Saturday. Effective shear will be fairly weak today, but is
expected to increase Monday and Tuesday as an upper trough digs to
our west and southwesterly flow increases aloft. So while we may
see an isolated strong storm today, the better chance arrives
tomorrow.

Models still diverge midweek with the GFS indicating a warming and
drying trend as it builds the upper ridge back across our area
from the east. The ECMWF and the Canadian, more or less, keep the
upper ridge further east with higher rain chances and cooler
temperatures across our area into late week. Each model has been
fairly consistent with each run over the past few days so will not
change much in the extended for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  74  96  74 /  30  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       95  71  93  71 /  20  30  30  40
Dryden                         99  75  97  75 /  30  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  96  72  93  71 /  40  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 86  66  84  65 /  30  40  30  40
Hobbs                          91  69  91  68 /  20  30  30  50
Marfa                          88  65  86  63 /  40  40  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           96  74  94  73 /  30  30  20  40
Odessa                         96  74  94  73 /  30  30  20  50
Wink                           98  72  95  72 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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