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000
FXUS64 KMAF 040518
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1112 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
remain fairly light out of the south with mostly mid to high clouds
over the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Weak upper level trough located along the Arizona/New Mexico
border will move east tonight over the area. Not expecting
much weather with it except considerable cloudiness and
possibly isolated showers/snow showers in the Big Bend Region.
Temperatures will be warmer than last night given the increase in
clouds and very weak return low level flow.

Temperatures will continue to moderate Tuesday as surface high
pressure moves off into the Mississippi valley and a weak surface
lee trough forms in eastern New Mexico in west to northwest flow
aloft. High temperatures Tuesday are expected to be near normal
per forecasted 850 millibar temperatures.

A weak upper level trough is forecast to track across the plains
Wednesday and drag a weak cold front across the forecast area.
Little to no cooling is expected behind this front with considerable
sunshine expected. Zonal flow is expected behind this system
Thursday and Friday and temperatures will rebound to above normal
values as another lee surface trough/low develops.

The forecast for next weekend is not clear at this time. The ECMWF
and NOGAPS model develop a closed southern stream low and track
it across the region with a decent shot at precipitation. The GFS
and CMC model are more progressive and drier. As a compromise did
add a slight chance of showers to southeast New Mexico and the
higher terrain of southwest Texas Saturday and across the higher
terrain of southwest Texas Saturday night. Temperatures next
weekend will obviously depend very much on which guidance
is more correct. For now went with a compromise blend of the ECMWF
and MEXMOS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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