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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280521
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1121 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
likely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period with
-FZDZ through early morning. Generally have IFR/LIFR flight
conditions at all but CNM where MVFR continues this evening however
this should be short-lived and CNM is expected to join the others
soon. Although non of the surface obs around the region are
currently reporting -FZDZ, local radar suggests otherwise. Will
continue mention of at least periods of -FZDZ through at least
mid/late morning Saturday which will likely result in slick runways
during this time. Will continue to monitor current trends and
amend if/when needed. Otherwise, conditions will improve to MVFR and
eventually VFR Saturday afternoon. E winds around 12kt tonight will
veer to the SE Saturday morning and become somewhat gusty at FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...
Overnight lows have been lowered generally from mountains
eastward. Sleet removed all areas. Areas of freezing drizzle and
fog have been expanded to include mountain areas.

DISCUSSION...
The 00Z sounding showed boundary layer running somewhat cooler
than NAM BUFR soundings forecast at MAF. Surface temperatures have
also failed to warm up late this afternoon, leaving actual
temperatures below the overnight lows previously forecast across
much of the area. Though warm air advection will increase
overnight with a modest low level jet, warmer temperatures aloft
will have trouble mixing down to the surface. Expecting temperatures
to hold nearly stead through evening or possibly dropping slightly
followed by a slight warm up after midnight. Also appears that
sleet is not likely with no instability or source of significant
lift.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE... THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS LIKELY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AT ALL BUT FST WHERE LIFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH -FZDZ AND LIFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 28/06Z.
EXPECT PERIODS OF -FZDZ TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SLICK RUNWAYS DURING THIS TIME AS TEMPS
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID-DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CURRENT TRENDS AND AMEND IF/WHEN NEEDED. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. E WINDS AROUND 12KT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND
VEER TO THE SE SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS THAT AFFECTED OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER, RADAR AND HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS.

ROAD CONDITIONS WERE CERTAINLY AFFECTED EARLIER TODAY BY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FELL IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LEA COUNTY WHERE 4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PERMIAN
BASIN REPORTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

EVEN WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA, THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO THE TOMORROW MORNING REMAINS QUITE
DIFFICULT.  BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NAM MODELS SHOW VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA, GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.  THE GFS ALSO INDICATES OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  HOWEVER, THE GFS
IS HAVING SOME REAL STRUGGLES HANDLING THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
THUS, HAVE TRENDED OUR FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS.

A WARM LATER AROUND 750 MB IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS, WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
SNOW TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.  IN ADDITION, AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

THIS SETS UP FOR AN INTERESTING SITUATION.  WHILE WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE, THERE IS CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL AFFECT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.  IN ADDITION, THE LOSS OF SUN ANGLE WILL REFREEZE SOME
WET ROADWAYS ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS, WHILE NOT MEETING FORMAL
THRESHOLDS FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WE BELIEVE THE IMPACT
WARRANTS ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL NOON CST TOMORROW.

WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE A WARMUP BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
WE FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 40S.  SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY.  EVEN WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA, IT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING NOW.  FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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