Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 282359
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail the next 24 hours. Gusty
southwest winds this evening will diminish after sunset for most
terminals, though CNM/HOB could see gusty winds continue through
tonight. A cold front will begin to move into the area late this
evening, resulting in a NW wind shift at CNM/HOB. There remains
uncertainty with the front`s progression, with other terminals
looking to potentially maintain a SW/W wind into Saturday morning
before the front pushes further through the region, veering winds
to the NW. Gusts to around 20-30kt are expected to return to all
terminals Saturday morning. There is also potential for
showers/thunderstorms tonight into Saturday, though low
probability precludes mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 144 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Closed upper low will move down across the 4 Corners region
later today and swing across NM Saturday.  This low will cross the
Panhandle then swing over OK Sunday.  As the low moves east weak
ridging will build in from the west with high pressure over the area
into the early next week.  By Tuesday an upper trough will dive out
of Canada... move across the Southern Rockies Wednesday... and pass
over the area Thursday.

The main feature of interest is a strong cold front that will move
into the area late tonight.  The front looks to push into the NW
part of the region before sunrise so would affect morning lows there
before hanging up during the day.  Some disagreement with models
handling the front but it appears the front wont move through the
region till Saturday night.  Expect much colder temperatures Sunday
morning with Northern Lea Co possibly seeing freezing temps.  Have
considered a freeze warning for that location as could be the last
freeze of the season but for now will just continue with the SPS
highlighting the change.

Not very excite about thunderstorm chances but there will be some
low chances as early as tonight and increasing Saturday along and
behind the front.  Eta keeps most of the rain north of the area
until Saturday afternoon with some during the evening for the east.
Gfs develops more over the region Saturday with Ecm the wettest with
rain Saturday night over the Permian Basin.  Overall not expecting
much rainfall but someone right under a storm could get a good rain.
Will have another chance of rain next week with the upper trough.

The Guadalupe Mtns have already been at high wind today and there is
a High Wind Warning in effect so will let that ride.  There is also
a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mtns Saturday/Saturday night as
700mb winds in the vicinity stay over 40kts much of the night and
the front squeezes through the Pass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  71  40  71 /  30  30  40  10
Carlsbad                       55  66  38  74 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                         66  84  49  82 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Stockton                  62  74  40  73 /  10  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 49  59  34  66 /  10  20  20  10
Hobbs                          51  61  33  67 /  20  30  30  10
Marfa                          58  64  33  70 /  10  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           61  72  39  71 /  20  30  40  10
Odessa                         60  71  38  70 /  20  30  30  10
Wink                           59  70  40  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$


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