Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 150319
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
919 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.UPDATE...

Grids have been updated to expire the High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisory out west. Winds have decreased at most locations this
evening and should continue to do so overnight. Guadalupe Pass may
see winds near 45 mph for another hour or so before quickly
diminishing around midnight. Everything else is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Gusty westerly winds will subside shortly after sunset and remain
light to modest the remainder of the TAF period. VFR then next 24
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the negatively-tilted upper trough extending from
ID SE to the Texas/OK Panhandles, resulting in a classic comma
cloud/baroclinic leaf over the Srn Plains.  The Pac front powered
thru KMAF at around 12Z, w/little fanfare noted except for weak
convection over the nrn/ern periphery of the FA.  Sfc obs show winds
approaching warning/advisory criteria over the Guadalupes and
adjacent plains, w/short-term models suggesting these criteria will
be met before the day is out.  Attm, see no reason to extend
warnings/advisories beyond 00Z, but next shift can extend if
necessary.  Although clr skies overnight will promote efficient
radiational cooling, forecast sfc pressure gradients should remain
tight enough to keep temps from dropping too far.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft quickly transitions to SW as the next
upper trough digs down along the west coast.  CAA is forecast to
continue thru Tuesday as sfc flow veers, resulting in blo-normal
temps Tuesday afternoon before return flow resumes.  Wednesday
night, the ECMWF/CMC bring a shortwave thru the region, whereas the
GFS/DGEX do not, which could bring a slight chance of -SHRA to the
eastern zones.  Thursday into Thursday night, the main trough
approaches and moves thru.  Models are still all over the place
w/temps as the trough moves thru, with the ECMWF still hinting at
frozen precip nrn zones.  We`ll continue w/-SHRA unless other models
follow.  The rest of the extended should see temps hovering around
normal, although the colder ECMWF may be weighting temps down a bit
much.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  63  34  56  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  61  36  55  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  59  38  54  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  68  42  61  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  64  36  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  54  37  54  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   34  62  34  52  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  65  29  63  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  62  35  56  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  62  36  56  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    34  65  33  60  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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