Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 211120
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main concern this forecast period are MVFR ceilings affecting
area terminals this morning, with improvement not expected until
around 15Z/16Z when ceilings lift and scatter out around 4-5kft.
A few showers may affect CNM this morning, and while additional
storms are possible this afternoon/evening, have not included
mention due to timing uncertainty. Otherwise, VFR conditions with
E/SE winds are expected from late this morning onward, with low
ceilings expected to return after 22/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, with relatively cool, wet
wx on tap for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into next week.
Sfc analysis shows that the cold front has cleared the Big Bend
Area, ushering in below-normal temperatures across the area.  In the
upper lvls, WV imagery shows the trough that brought the cold front
to the region yesterday is ejecting NE thru the Great Lakes region,
w/split flow around a ridge in the west centered over nrn CA and
converging over the Arklatex.

Sfc ridging will move off to the east today, allowing winds to veer
back around to return flow overnight, and pushing a warm front north
thru the area into Monday.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge currently lies
over the SW portion of the FA, and models develop this NE into the
area over the next 72 hours, orienting it SW-NE across West Texas
and SE NM by Tue/Wed.  In general, models keep the upper ridge over
the Gulf Coast states into the extended, leaving our area under SW
flow aloft and allowing multiple disturbances to move thru the area.
Ensembles show most of the anomalously high PWAT still lies further
east across central Texas, but does extend into the Davis/Apache
Mtns, so opportunities for decent rains exist, especially in the
short term.

Temps into the extended will be tricky due to expected cloud
cover/precip, but models generally warm H85 temps throughout the
week.  However, things should stay below normal as far as highs go,
w/increased moisture keeping mins above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  69  83  73 /  20  20  50  30
Carlsbad                       82  68  86  69 /  40  30  30  30
Dryden                         82  72  80  73 /  40  40  50  20
Fort Stockton                  84  68  83  70 /  30  20  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 71  61  75  63 /  50  40  40  30
Hobbs                          81  64  84  67 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          75  60  76  63 /  40  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           83  68  83  72 /  20  20  40  20
Odessa                         83  68  83  72 /  20  20  40  20
Wink                           85  69  85  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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