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000
FXUS64 KMAF 010514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1112 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours. Light and variable
winds will persist overnight and the majority of Sunday with mid and
high clouds streaming in from the west. There is a chance for some
light MVFR vsbys to develop at MAF early Sunday morning and will
continue mention in the TAF for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2013/

DISCUSSION...
Today has been a pleasant day with slightly above normal
temperatures and just some scattered high clouds streaming over
the area. The warmth should continue through the middle of the
week thanks to a zonal flow pattern. The GFS is the outlier on
Wednesday ejecting an upper low across the northern plains sending
a cold front into the Permian Basin. All other models, including
the high resolution NAM12 hold this cold air north until Thursday
and Thursday night when a deep upper level trough begins to move
east across the desert southwest and this timing is preferred. The
upper pattern becomes highly amplified with a Pacific ridge
reaching up into Alaska allowing this airmass to be very cold,
similar to this past cold front. The main difference however may
be that there is no upper low, only an open trough so the
isentropic lift will not be as great and precip chances and clouds
will be less. There will be a chance for showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms ahead of the front, then a brief chance for
rain along and about 12 hours behind the front before precip shifts
to the east. The precip type will be rain ahead of and immediately
behind the front, with perhaps a change over to sleet or light
snow IF the upper trough can approach fast enough to cool the
upper atmosphere. Probably won`t matter much either way as any
accumulations would be light. Temps behind the front will again be
sharply colder but a quicker return of sunshine will prevent highs
from holding below freezing.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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