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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210502
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Persistence rules. VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under
the ridge in return flow. A widespread cu field is anticipated by
late morning, w/bases ~ 5 kft agl. Most convection will be
confined to the higher terrain west of the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist for the rest of the day and tomorrow,
and winds will begin to drop off after sunset. They will continue
to be out of the SSE and are expected to pick back up after noon
tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 221 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Persistence continues to rule today, as diurnally driven
thunderstorms have already begun to develop across higher
elevations from the Davis Mountains north to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Isolated to scattered storms will continue into this
evening, mainly across the higher terrain and the adjacent plains.
Similar to the past few days, severe weather is not anticipated,
however, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning will
be possible with any storm that develops. The locally heavy
rainfall could lead to flooding concerns, particularly for
locations that have received appreciable rainfall over the past
several days. Friday will be similar to today, with highs a few
degrees above normal, and isolated to scattered storms mainly
along and west of the Pecos River. Easterly flow aloft will
continue into this weekend as the upper high shifts eastward, and
while 850mb temperatures will increase, heights will fall in
response to a disturbance that will progress westward across
Texas. Thus, temperatures will remain near to just above normal,
with rain chances expanding eastward from the higher terrain
across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. Isolated to scattered
storms look to be possible for most of the area both Saturday and
Sunday.

An upper low dropping out of Canada through the Great Lakes late
in the weekend will amplify the pattern, with ridging
reasserting itself across the western CONUS early next week. The
ridge will then build eastward over the region, which will yield
continued near normal to just above normal temperatures next week,
and storm chances once again shifting west to the higher terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       95  72  97  73 /  20  10  20  10
Dryden                         95  76  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  94  74  95  73 /  10   0  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  68  86  67 /  30  10  30  20
Hobbs                          93  70  95  70 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          86  63  86  64 /  30  20  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           96  74  97  75 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         96  74  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           97  74  99  75 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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