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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.  Light and
somewhat variable winds are expected with mid and high level clouds
over the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show another relatively warm night shaping up across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, in generally northwest flow, aided
by a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming a veil of high clouds
across the region in zonal flow aloft.  WV imagery shows the upper
cut-off low west of Baja, while to the east, an upper trough is
exiting the MS Valley.  These two features have sandwiched a
highly-amped ridge over the area.  Baja ridge is still forecast to
shear out and rejoin the flow over the next few days, flattening the
ridge and sending it east.  As the trough moves north, isolated
-SHRA can`t be ruled out this evening over the Presidio Valley.
Otherwise, the ridge, combined w/a light westerly downslope flow
component, will result in continued unseasonably warm temperatures
over the next few days.  By Wednesday afternoon, it`ll feel more
light mid May around here than late January, as afternoon highs top
out in the 70s.

Unfortunately, the shearing Baja trough is forecast to top the
ridge, and join forces w/a shortwave diving out of Canada, dropping
a cold front into the FA late Wednesday night.  This will knock
temps back down Thursday afternoon, although still abv normal.  As
this is taking place, another upper trough will reach the west
coast, and is forecast to close off over SoCal/SW AZ sometime
Friday.  This will set up West Texas/SE NM for a wet weekend, w/a
chance of -SHRA beginning as soon as Thursday night, exacerbated by
isentropic upglide beginning Friday, as the trough begins sending
shortwaves into the area in SW flow aloft.  A secondary cold front
is due in Friday night/Saturday to help things along, although the
GFS is a little faster w/fropa than the ECMWF.  Mid/hi-lvl moisture
from the west and easterly low-lvl moisture will saturate the column
by 00Z Saturday, w/the GFS developing PWATs over 1" by then...over 3
std devs abv normal and abv the 99th percentile for January.  Thus,
the potential for abundant rainfall persists.  Precip should remain
liquid Thu night/Fri, as the secondary front arrives Friday night at
the earliest.  Attm, forecast soundings for Fri night/Sat suggest a
mix will be possible only in the N and NW fringes of the FA.
Saturday night could see a changeover to -SN most areas, but
soundings dry out considerably from 00Z-12Z Sun, so accumulations
should be minimal.  Precip continues tapering off Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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