Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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053
FXUS64 KMAF 190538
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
No storms currently across the area... may see afternoon storms
over the mountains but should not affect TAF locations. VFR with a
prevailing SE wind becoming gusty in the afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A 5h anticyclone is centered INVOF SW KS with a mid level theta-e
minimum across much of the CWFA, including the w. The upper ridge
will remain to the n Wed. A minor shrtwv trof in the mid level ely
flow is progged to track w across the PB Tue evening and may
result in a few -SHRA. Other than a few SHRA/TSRA in the mtn this
PM the potential for precip does not look good, but high temps
thru Thur are expected to mostly remain below 100. Said anticyclone
will develop wwd starting Thur and will mostly result in high
temps increasing a few degrees, probably back into the triple
digits across most of the area.

CLIMATE...
So far this July MAF has had 14 days of triple digit heat. The
climo average is 5. There were also 14 days of triple digit heat
in July for 2015. The record for July is 18 days (1964, 1998) with
16 days in 2001, 2011). Based on the climo record for MAF, of the
6 yrs that have had at least 14 days of triple digit heat in July
the following Aug only 3 of those yrs did the triple digit heat
carry over into Aug. So maybe the triple digit heat continues into
Aug, maybe it doesn`t.

So far for 2016 MAF has had 21 days of triple digit heat, the climo
average for the yr is 16. The record number of triple digits days is
65, 52, and 51, for 2011, 1964, and 1998 respectively.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       73  99  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  91  67  90 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          70  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  90  66  91 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           77 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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