654
FXUS64 KMAF 071937
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
237 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

- A few showers and thunderstorms (10-30 percent chance) will
  continue through the afternoon hours, with the best chance
  across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain areas of west
  Texas.

- Seasonably hot temperatures continue through Wednesday, with
  temperatures trending slightly above normal during the latter
  part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build across
the Desert Southwest this afternoon. Northwesterly to northerly
flow aloft is prevalent across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico along the eastern periphery of this feature. Abundant deep
layer moisture remains in place over a good portion of our forecast
area this afternoon with blended total precipitable water values
up to 1.4-1.55 inches indicated by GOES-19 satellite imagery. The
combination of weak shortwave impulses rounding the upper ridge
axis, residual outflow boundaries, and the available moisture and
instability have aided in the development of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains,
portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and the northern
Permian Basin late this morning and early this afternoon. We will
maintain low (10-30 percent) probabilities of showers and
thunderstorms over these locations through the remainder of the
afternoon, with convective potential slightly more favored over
southeastern New Mexico and the higher terrain areas. Most of this
activity should diminish by early this evening, though there is a
slight (10-20 percent) chance that an additional cluster of
showers/storms could move S-SE into portions of southeast New
Mexico by late this evening.

The upper level ridge of high pressure should continue to strengthen
and expand across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners Region on
Tuesday. Our forecast area will remain situated along the eastern
edge of the ridge axis. Residual moisture and afternoon
heating/instability could once again aid in the development of
isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Guadalupe/Davis
Mountains as well as portions of southeast New Mexico and into the
Marfa Plateau/Big Bend regions Tuesday afternoon. Coverage
currently looks to remain fairly limited, so afternoon POPs were
kept between 10-20 percent over these locations. One area that we
may have to monitor for additional thunderstorm development could
be the northern Permian Basin where a couple of CAMs as well as
the GFS/ECMWF indicate some potential for convection to drop
southward into these locations by Tuesday evening within northerly
flow aloft. Confidence was not high enough to make changes to the
NBM there (which currently shows up to 10% POPs on Tuesday
evening), but this may be something to monitor over the next
forecast cycle or two. Overnight lows tonight and Tuesday night
should continue to range in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the
region, while highs on Tuesday look to range in the 90s over most
of the area, except for mid to upper 80s in the mountains and up
to around 103 degrees along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

No significant changes were made to the extended forecast. Upper
level ridging will remain prominent over the southwestern U.S.
through the end of the week. Our forecast area will remain located
along the eastern fringe of the upper ridge axis Wednesday-Friday.
Model solutions generally indicate increased subsidence underneath
ridging aloft Wednesday-Thursday, so convective coverage may be
limited to only very isolated storm cells over the higher terrain
areas both days. Convective chances may begin to increase late
this week and into the upcoming weekend as the ridge retrogrades
slightly westward, with embedded shortwave impulses within
northwesterly flow aloft potentially translating into our forecast
area. High temperatures otherwise look to trend upward into the
mid to upper 90s across much of the region during the mid to late
week time frame. Friday still looks to be the hottest day of the
extended forecast period, with readings forecast to reach into the
upper 90s to around 102 degrees over much of the region, except
for lower 90s in the mountains and up to 103-108 degrees along the
Rio Grande. High temperatures may trend just a few degrees lower
by this weekend, but still in the 90s for most.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Easterly to southeasterly
winds persist below 10kts throughout this TAF period. A stray
shower/thunderstorm or two is possible this afternoon/evening, but
have not included -TSRA in TAFs due to uncertainty in coverage and
positioning in relation to the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  93  72  93 /   0  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 71  93  71  93 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                   73  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  86  67  87 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                    70  91  68  91 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                    63  89  64  88 /   0  20   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     72  93  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   72  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     71  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...55