Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 060531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1231 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015


Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions are expected to prevail across area terminals over
the next 24 hours. There could be some thunderstorms after 07/00Z
mainly affecting KCNM, though have held off mention in the TAF for


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 206 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/

We won`t focus too much on explaining details of model scenarios for
this forecast as much of this has been covered repetitively over the
last few days. Instead we will place emphasis on the bigger picture
and possible impacts from flooding/flash flooding across CWFA Wed-
Fri. There is good consensus (model and forecaster) that a synoptic
scale rain/heavy rain event is materializing with an upper low
forecast to be in SW NM by Wed PM and El Paso City by 12Z Thur.
Rich/deep moisture persisting ahead of the upper low will promote
efficient rain producing showers and storms leading to widespread
concerns for flooding/flash flooding. Out west, the Upper Trans
Pecos/SE NM will be the most favored areas for flooding rains
Wed/early Thur AM and then most of the PB early Thur AM-PM. Although
the greatest concern is with heavy rain/flooding a few strong storms
will be possible across the western areas Tue PM and some severe
storms will be possible across the Trans Pecos/SE NM Wed PM. Flash
flood watches may be issued as early as Tue for Wed/Thur. Rainfall
totals of 1-2" with local higher amounts will be possible.

Flooding of urban areas is a real concern, especially across the PB.
Some of the heaviest rains are expected to develop between late Wed
night through Thur. Impacts may include; flooded urban roadways and
rural low water crossings, flooding of normally dry or low flowing
arroyos/creeks, including those in SE NM. Reduced visibility in short
distances may impact airports and auto travel. Event scheduling may
be impacted, especially Thur.

The upper low may slowly drop s on Fri. This would result in a
continuation of rain/flooding potential across the area, especially
areas along and s of I-20.




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