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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210503
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1203 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will become prevailing MVFR ceilings at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals in the 21/09z to 21/13z
Sunday morning time frame. MVFR ceilings will continue through
much of the day with a prob30 chance of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon at KMAF, KINK, KPEQ. Tempo MVFR conditions in
showers and thunderstorms are expected at KFST for much of Sunday.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will be fairly light out of the east to southeast through
the overnight period before becoming elevated out of the southeast
Sunday afternoon. Low ceilings are expected to move into the area
around 09z to 12z. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase after 12z. The low ceilings are expected to remain across
most of the area through the afternoon tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Post-frontal low clouds have dissipated but clouds will return
tonight with se low level winds. Overnight the focus will be
across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos region where the best
chance of rain will be found, but moreso on Sunday after 12Z. The
presence of an upper level speed max/shrtwv trof and development
of se low level flow along with mid level LRs around 7.5 C/KM
will be sufficient for development of storms. PW will be around +
1 to 2 standard deviations and locally heavy rain will be a
concern along with a few strong/severe storms across the Big
Bend/Lower Trans Pecos. We have increased PoPs in said areas
Sunday including the mention of heavy rain. There could be some
low end response on the Rio Grande and tributaries? Farther n
across the PB low PoPs are warranted. On Monday tstms will likely
be more isold across the Trans Pecos. Mid level flow will
transition to NW on Monday and the chance of tstms will increase
Monday evening with an embedded shrtwv trof and PB will be on the
poleward side of a 95kt 3h jet. Storms initially are favored to
develop in ern NM on the leeward side of the low level thermal
ridge and develop/move se. These storms will likely be severe on
late Monday afternoon/evening. Even though there will be outflow
winds with this cluster of storms the real cold front is not
expected until closer to 12Z Tue. High/low temps will mostly
remain below through Monday then re-enforced with said front on
Tue. Pops will mostly be confined to s of the Pecos River Tue PM
INVOF the front. A strong warming trend will commence Wed and be
fully in gear by Thur into Sat. Next weekend is Memorial Day
weekend and is the climatological peak for severe wx, however the
current fcst will not be in alignment with climatology.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  57  76  60 /   0  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       80  56  77  61 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         80  65  74  65 /  30  40  70  30
Fort Stockton                  79  61  73  62 /  10  20  60  20
Guadalupe Pass                 73  53  69  56 /   0  10  40  20
Hobbs                          77  52  76  58 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          78  55  74  55 /  10  30  60  20
Midland Intl Airport           79  57  76  60 /   0  10  20  20
Odessa                         79  58  75  61 /   0  10  20  20
Wink                           82  60  77  61 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12