Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301115
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AFTER
DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CREATING STRONG WINDS. MODERATE RAIN
AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE AT KMAF, KINK, KPEQ, AND KFST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. ONCE THIS STORM
COMPLEX DISSIPATES, NOT EXPECTING ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...

WE`LL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION.  UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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