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000
FXUS64 KMAF 101541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1041 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue next 24 hours in modest return flow under
the upper level ridge. Forecast soundings suggest convective temps
will not be reached this afternoon, so little-to-no cu development
expected. However, a widespread cu field will be possible by late
Friday morning, w/bases 3-5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light occasionally gusty southeast winds this
TAF period. Isolated storms will be around the Pecos River but
coverage will not be enough to place TS in TAFs.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge will remain the dominate wx feature for this forecast so
expecting little day to day change.  Days start out with few clouds
across the region... then afternoon cumulus pops across the area.
Storms develop over the mountains of NM and W TX in the afternoon
and higher clouds from these get pushed around the edge of the
ridge.

Temperatures will remain warm... but a relatively moist airmass for
the region will help to lessen diurnal ranges.  Dewpts should stay
in the 50 to 60 degree range as a south to southeast low level
flow continues into next week.  May see a weak front sag into the
area next Tuesday or Wednesday... not expecting much from it but
could see a little cooler temps with a better chance of rain for
the northern CWA.

Have had storms over the higher elevations last several days and
model qpf continues to support it so will continue low pops during
the afternoon/evening over the mountains next few days.  The 00Z MAF
sounding did have a PW over 1 inch and model soundings show this
increases over the next couple of days so locally heavy rain will be
possible with some of these storms.  One feature of interest is an
upper low moving west into the area late Friday.  This may increase
storm coverage across the Big Bend and Marfa Plateau and have bumped
up pops a little for the Lower Trans Pecos.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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