Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210550
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers are continuing to percolate along and west of a line from
roughly Ft. Stockton northward to Hobbs tonight, and while
coverage further north has decreased, continued development is
observed in Presidio and Jeff Davis counties. Have maintained
mention of -SHRA late tonight and Tuesday at area terminals, with
the exception of KMAF. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected by
daybreak, with transient IFR possible with stronger showers.
Patchy fog has also begun to develop, and while visibilities
should largely remain MVFR, KPEQ has the best chance for IFR/LIFR
conditions, mainly near/just prior to daybreak.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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