Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181725

1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014


See 18z aviation discussion below.



Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
for MAF, FST, and PEQ but the best chances are for FST.  Winds will
mostly be out of the east to southeast today with elevated winds
occurring around 00z before weakening.  South to southeast winds will
prevail Tuesday morning with winds becoming gusty toward noon.
There is a very slight chance of lower ceilings for MAF around 12z to
15z Tuesday but did not mention in TAFs due to low probability.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

A mid level trof axis across the far s-se CWFA will still be
evident in 5h height field this PM with the 5h theta-e ridge
mostly aligned with said trof. There is model consensus that
today`s precip will be confined to the far e-s-sw today/Tue. Low
end chance PoPs are worthy across parts of the Trans Pecos
today/Tue. 85h temps will remain in the mid/upper 20C range across
most areas today/Tue. This has generally resulted in highs in the
mid/upper 90s, except where tstm outflow has resulted in cooler
temps, like what happened yesterday in Midland. By Wed mid level
pattern change will be complete with subtropical ridge well off to
the e-se (lower heights) with a sly mid level flow. A prominent
mid level theta-e ridge will be oriented from nrn MX into far W
TX/srn NM. The most favored track for shrtwv trofs may be just a
little farther w of CWFA. Still this should be a good set-up with
atypical moist upslope flow into mtns co-located within area of
better insolation near the gradient of mid level theta-e ridge
(which at times has been observed to be a favored area for
initiation). Precipitable water will be near 1 standard deviation
above normal. More of the same Thur however best rain potential
will be more from the Davis-GDP mtns into wrn Eddy Co.. There could
be at least locally heavy rain with flooding concerns. Temps will
be relatively cool Wed/Thur even across the PB where stronger se
winds provide slightly cooling. Friday, subtropical ridge will
build back w some and mid level moist axis will push w. There will
still be ample moisture/heating for slght chc/chc PoPs, mainly
across the w. Mid level theta-e ridge slowly fades Saturday/
Sunday with only low end PoPs warranted.






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