410
FXUS64 KMAF 091718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Showers and storms are expected to continue early this morning
  across the Permian Basin. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and lightning
  will be the primary threats for these storms.

- Daily isolated storm chances (10-20%) and seasonable
  temperatures continue today before a slight warm up in the
  latter half of the week.

- Near normal temperatures and low to medium (20-60%) rain/storm
  chances return over the weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Current radar imagery has a cluster of storms going through the
northeastern Permian Basin. These storms are expected to gradually
diminish, though a couple of remnant showers and storms could remain
across the Permian Basin early this morning. Synoptically, the
region is on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge, while a
shortwave trough is prevalent across north-central Texas extending
up to the Great Lakes region. Today, the high pressure barely moves
to the east keeping us on the eastern periphery. This will allow
weaker subsidence, therefore, more isolated storms (10-20%) will be
in store this afternoon. Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) are very
inconsistent on where storms will develop. Given the synoptic setup,
areas across the eastern Permian Basin to Lower Trans Pecos look to
have the favorable storm development. Forecast soundings depict
"inverted-V" profiles indicating a wind gust threat for the
strongest storms (up to 55 mph). High temperatures are expected to
remain in the low to mid 90s regionwide.

Thursday, the upper high expands further east into the forecast
area, providing slightly warmer temperatures and dry conditions for
most, thanks to increasing subsidence. A few storms look to develop
across the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of southeast New Mexico
Thursday evening. Locally strong wind gusts and lightning remain to
primary threats for the strongest storms.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

No significant changes have been made to the previous forecast.
Friday, the upper high pressure system remains in a similar position
compared with Thursday. Guidance has a shortwave trough moving
through the Southern Plains, providing increased storm coverage
across the region Friday afternoon into the evening. High
temperatures are forecasted to be a touch warmer compared with
Thursday with highs reaching the low 90s to low triple digits.

Saturday, the upper high over the Desert Southwest retrogrades
slightly westward, while a broad area of high pressure sits over the
Gulf. Both of these systems will allow troughing over west Texas and
southeast New Mexico throughout the weekend into early next week.
Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms with cooler
temperatures are going to be prevalent across the region because of
the troughing in place. Forecast soundings have PWATs remaining
around the climatological 90th percentile, as well as "inverted-V"
profiles suggesting a heavy rainfall and thunderstorm wind gust
threat Saturday through Monday. This pattern from long-range
guidance seems to persist through the middle of next week, however,
it is too far to tell if this pattern will pan out this long.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions are on tap through the period. Winds will generally
be light, out of the south and southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  96  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 71  97  72  96 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                   72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  97  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           69  91  70  91 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                    68  93  70  94 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    62  91  65  91 /   0   0   0  40
Midland Intl Airport     73  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   72  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     71  96  72  97 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...95