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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

NOCTURNAL LLJ IS IN FULL GEAR TONIGHT...W/KMAF SHOWING 50KTS OUT
OF THE SSE...ABOUT 10KTS STRONGER THAN MODELS ANTICIPATED 24 HRS
AGO. THIS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE STRATUS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-11KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OMTNS AROUND 18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY CONVECTION
ATTM...PREFERRING TO LOOK AT THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHEN IT COMES
IN...AND MAKING THE FINAL CALL FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR/LIFR
CIGS WILL ALSO COME INTO THE PICTURE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.

THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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