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000
FXUS64 KMAF 312345
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
645 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...As of 6:45 PM CDT Thursday...have updated the
grids/forecast to lower PoPs across the CWA. KMAF radar is indc a
lone...weakening cell over Presidio County. Other than this
cell...the radar is clear across the CWA.

It just didn`t get warm enough to increase instability across the
area...and the upslope flow wasn`t enough to overcome the lack of
instability. Have kept the highest PoPs along the New Mexico
Mountains and adjoining Plains as well as the Mountains along the
Rio Grande where the cold front has basically stalled...and could
serve as a focus for any convective initiation.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions through the forecast with a light wind. Could
be a few storms overnight... mainly south near remains of frontal
boundary... but should not affect any TAF site.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently draped across the Rio Grander River. Much
cooler has filtered into southeast New Mexico and most of west
Texas behind this front with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
at this time than yesterday afternoon. This front is forecast to
become nearly stationary through the weekend with temperatures
expected to be well below normal across the forecast area.

The bigger news this weekend is the potential for thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
areas near the Rio Grande River near this stalled front. The
dirty upper level ridge centered across New Mexico and extreme
southwest Texas has slow moving upper level disturbances trapped
within it and this will continue to be the case through the weekend.
The combination of these slow moving disturbances coupled with the
stalled boundary and the higher topography could result in locally
heavy rainfall and or flash flooding in the aforementioned areas.
Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential for a flash
flood watch Friday and or Saturday. Unfortunately further east
away from the front and disturbances, the central and eastern
Permian Basin will probably receive little meaningful precipitation
amounts through the weekend.

A drying and warming trend is expected next Monday and Tuesday
due to the expected strengthening and drying of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are expected to climb back to near normal values by
Tuesday. By next Wednesday and Thursday more weakness is forecast
to develop within the ridge. The ECMWF is more pronounced with
this weakness. For now will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the mountains and the immediate adjacent plains where
topography will be an advantage. Temperatures look to be at
least near normal, possibly a little above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  87  66  86  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              66  89  68  87  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                65  85  66  86  /  20  30  40  40
DRYDEN TX                  76  93  71  93  /  10  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  89  68  87  /  10  30  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  75  59  79  /  30  60  60  60
HOBBS NM                   62  82  64  82  /   0  10  30  30
MARFA TX                   64  78  62  79  /  20  70  60  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  88  67  89  /   0  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  66  88  68  88  /   0  10  20  20
WINK TX                    69  91  70  91  /   0  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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