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098
FXUS64 KMAF 211146
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
646 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a High wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Mid level winds have increased over the area as the base of an
upper trough approaches the region. Strong westerly winds have
already mixed down into the Guadalupe Mountains, and expect this
to continue through early afternoon before the base of the upper
trough moves southeastward, and takes the strong mid level winds
with it.  Will issue a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains until 21/21Z, and allow the next shift to assess whether
the warning will need to be extended.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Low ceilings and visibilities will continue to develop and impact
most of the terminals through around 16z. Winds will become
elevated and gusty by this afternoon out of the west then will
weaken and shift towards the north this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures will see-saw between warm and cool this weekend, and
through next week, as a series of deep ua troughs expand over the
central U.S. then head eastward.  After this afternoon/evening, rain
chances will be almost nil through most of the week.

A large upper trough will dig/expand over the central CONUS today
with the base of same dipping over West Texas this afternoon.  This
feature will prevent a low level thermal ridge from being moreso
over the area, but southwest to west, downslope winds will aid
temperatures rising around 10 degrees above normal,  Height/surface
pressure falls will back low level winds and keep some low level
moisture over the eastern Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos, so will
include a slight chance of thunderstorms there late this afternoon/
evening.  Mid level lapse rates are not particularly steep, only
moist adiabatic, but SBCape of at least 1500 J/Kg and 0 to 6km Bulk
Shear of 35-40kt could produce a strong, if not borderline severe,
storm or two.  Any thunderstorms that develop will likely move east
fairly rapidly.

Dry air will invade the region behind a cold front tonight and stay
over the region through mid next week.  Highs Sunday will end up
being a few degrees below normal.  An upper ridge will begin to take
the place of the eastbound ua trough Monday, so temperatures will
rise a few degrees above normal.  The same ua trough which headed
east will be reinvigorated by a strong shortwave trough and end up
as a large cutoff low over the Midwest.  The westward expansion of
the ua trough will be great enough to send another cold front
through the region Tuesday.  Temperatures will return to normal
levels Wednesday, before jumping above normal again Thursday ahead
of the next ua trough.

Current model trends indicate this next ua trough will dig southward
aggressively over the central U.S. and bring the coldest air of the
Fall season Friday and Saturday.  Precipitation chances do not look
favorable, but northern portions of the forecast area could have a
freeze Saturday morning. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  49  72  46 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  45  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         87  55  81  50 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  88  50  73  51 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  47  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  41  69  42 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          82  39  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           87  49  73  47 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         86  49  73  48 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           89  46  72  43 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$