National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KMAF 282031
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Models continue to show the next upper level low moving into
northwestern Mexico by the weekend bringing widespread
precipitation to our area. Rainfall will develop around the Van
Horn area late Thursday and spread east Friday into Saturday.
Vertical sounding profiles still show temperatures too warm for
snow for most areas, with the best chances for snow being in the
Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwestern
Permian Basin. There is some disagreement between guidance and raw
model data forecast dewpoints and temperatures which could affect
the precipitation type. Guidance suggests temperatures will be cold
enough to support snow for roughly all areas north of I-20 while
the raw data is too warm for snow. Given the large amount of
precipitation it may be difficult for dewpoints to drop low enough
for evaporative cooling to lower the temperatures so this forecast
continues with mostly rain. Models have backed off slightly on QPF
amounts, but PWATs double the norm for this time of year mean some
locations could receive in excess of an inch of rain. An upper low
in January 2013 brought over an inch of rain and some flooding to
Midland so it is definitely possible. The warm temperatures and
wet ground will make it difficult for any snow that falls to
accumulate, but one to two inches would not be out of the
question, especially in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains.

The moisture will push off to the east on Sunday bringing an end
to the rain while the upper low slowly meanders into central
Mexico. A modest ridge will develop over the western U.S. keeping
us in northwesterly flow and allowing for only a slow warm up
early next week with highs reaching near normal by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 43  58  35  43  /   0   0  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              46  60  36  47  /   0   0  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                41  58  36  41  /   0   0  50  60
DRYDEN TX                  48  71  46  52  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  64  39  48  /   0   0  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  53  31  38  /   0   0  50  60
HOBBS NM                   40  56  33  39  /   0   0  40  50
MARFA TX                   42  64  37  47  /   0   0  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    44  59  36  46  /   0   0  30  40
ODESSA TX                  45  60  36  46  /   0   0  30  40
WINK TX                    44  62  39  46  /   0   0  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
National Weather Service National Headquarters
