


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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410 FXUS64 KMAF 091718 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - Showers and storms are expected to continue early this morning across the Permian Basin. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and lightning will be the primary threats for these storms. - Daily isolated storm chances (10-20%) and seasonable temperatures continue today before a slight warm up in the latter half of the week. - Near normal temperatures and low to medium (20-60%) rain/storm chances return over the weekend and early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Current radar imagery has a cluster of storms going through the northeastern Permian Basin. These storms are expected to gradually diminish, though a couple of remnant showers and storms could remain across the Permian Basin early this morning. Synoptically, the region is on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge, while a shortwave trough is prevalent across north-central Texas extending up to the Great Lakes region. Today, the high pressure barely moves to the east keeping us on the eastern periphery. This will allow weaker subsidence, therefore, more isolated storms (10-20%) will be in store this afternoon. Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) are very inconsistent on where storms will develop. Given the synoptic setup, areas across the eastern Permian Basin to Lower Trans Pecos look to have the favorable storm development. Forecast soundings depict "inverted-V" profiles indicating a wind gust threat for the strongest storms (up to 55 mph). High temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid 90s regionwide. Thursday, the upper high expands further east into the forecast area, providing slightly warmer temperatures and dry conditions for most, thanks to increasing subsidence. A few storms look to develop across the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of southeast New Mexico Thursday evening. Locally strong wind gusts and lightning remain to primary threats for the strongest storms. Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 No significant changes have been made to the previous forecast. Friday, the upper high pressure system remains in a similar position compared with Thursday. Guidance has a shortwave trough moving through the Southern Plains, providing increased storm coverage across the region Friday afternoon into the evening. High temperatures are forecasted to be a touch warmer compared with Thursday with highs reaching the low 90s to low triple digits. Saturday, the upper high over the Desert Southwest retrogrades slightly westward, while a broad area of high pressure sits over the Gulf. Both of these systems will allow troughing over west Texas and southeast New Mexico throughout the weekend into early next week. Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms with cooler temperatures are going to be prevalent across the region because of the troughing in place. Forecast soundings have PWATs remaining around the climatological 90th percentile, as well as "inverted-V" profiles suggesting a heavy rainfall and thunderstorm wind gust threat Saturday through Monday. This pattern from long-range guidance seems to persist through the middle of next week, however, it is too far to tell if this pattern will pan out this long. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 VFR conditions are on tap through the period. Winds will generally be light, out of the south and southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 73 96 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 97 72 96 / 0 0 20 20 Dryden 72 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 97 73 99 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 69 91 70 91 / 0 0 20 20 Hobbs 68 93 70 94 / 0 0 10 20 Marfa 62 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 40 Midland Intl Airport 73 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 72 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 71 96 72 97 / 0 0 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...95