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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221938
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
convection breaking out in the Sacramento Mtns...Northern Lea
County...and north of the northern tier of counties in the CWA
(Gaines...Dawson...Borden...and Scurry). There is also an isolated
cell WSW of Big Spring. The convection north of the CWA and near
Big Spring wasn`t forecast on any of the models.

Even though the 12Z MAF sounding showed less mid level moisture
recent water vapor imagery is showing that the mid level moisture
has been increasing. There also could be a subtle shortwave in the
water vapor imagery moving south which could be the reason why
there is convection moving south thru the Panhandle.

Convection will diminish overnight as the strong ridge remains
parked over northern New Mexico. After the convection this
evening...have kept the CWA dry right through next weekend and
into early next week...as mid level moisture should decrease in
the mid/upper level ENE flow.

Concerning the hot temperatures...will let the Heat Advisory
expire at 12Z Wed morning as the thermal ridge stays a little
further west. While Heat Advisory criteria might be met in a few
locations...it does not seem as widespread as the past couple of
days. The thermal ridge will edge east Friday and Saturday...which
will result in widespread 100+ temps...with 105+ in the Trans
Pecos and along portions of the Rio Grande River Valley. Even
though the atmosphere will be drier...overnight lows could stay at
or above 75 degrees. A Heat Advisory might be needed for
Friday/Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  99  73  99  /  20   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              76 102  76 100  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74 100  72 102  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79 103  80 103  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  97  74  99  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  89  69  93  /  20  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   70  97  70  98  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  89  64  91  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74  99  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  75  99  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    76 101  75 102  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

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