Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 191013
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
413 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
It will feel a bit like spring after the recent cold snap with
highs reaching the 60s and 70s today and tomorrow. An upper ridge
axis moves across the area today, then increasing southwesterly
flow aloft increases downslope heating tomorrow as a deep upper
trough approaches the region. Unfortunately the trough will move
too far north to provide us with any precip chances and instead
will be favorably positioned for strong west winds again in the
Guadalupe Mountains Sunday. It is too far out to issue a High Wind
Watch for that area at this time but one will likely be needed in
the next 24 hours. Lower heights associated with the passing
trough will bring cooler temps on Sunday and the associated cold
front Sunday night will keep the cool temps on Monday as well. A
weak progressive flow pattern next week should allow for only
slight warming and generally seasonal temps.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon
across western portions of the area. Southwest winds will strengthen
in advance of an upper trough slated to move ashore on the West
Coast later today. The strongest winds will occur across the
Guadalupe Mountains although the lowest rh`s will reside further
east. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for the Guadalupe Mountains
this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected Saturday afternoon.
Things really pick up Sunday as a strong storm system arrives from
the west. The highest winds should stay to our north, but strong
winds are still possible mainly across SE NM and the Permian Basin.
Cooling temperatures during the afternoon will limit critical rh`s
across western areas, but this doesn`t look to be the case across
the northern Permian Basin and the Western Low Rolling Plains. Min
rh`s are expected to drop to critical levels by afternoon in this
area. The combination of these factors along with dry fuels and
increasing ERC`s will result in critical fire weather conditions.
Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for the above areas where
confidence in critical fire weather is highest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  35  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  33  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         64  34  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  42  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 61  41  64  33 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          68  30  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          66  29  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           67  35  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         67  35  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           71  32  76  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/10



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