Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231846
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
146 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A well defined cold front near LBB continues to move s with an ely
wind in advance assocd with surface low INVOF wrn PB. Meanwhile flow
aloft is from the nw with model indications of a minor shrtwv trof.
SB instability is focusing around the front (moreso just in wake
of it) with steep mid level LRs. There is good directional shear
along with sufficient bulk shear for at least a few severe storms,
anomalously high PWs favor local heavy rain too. Based on expected
frontal location storms will be favored to develop in NW CWFA
probably just prior to 00Z, tracking sewd. High resolution models
including HRRR/TTU WRF are in agreement. Highest PoPs are
warranted before 06Z/Sat. Post-frontal MSLP gradient favor breezy
conditions thru Sat PM, convection INVOF SW-S OK early Sat AM may
enhance winds some? Post-frontal high winds are still possible
thru GDP Mtns, but mixed signals in MOS data prevents issuance of
a headline ATTP, still very windy thru the GDP however. A wide
range of high temps is possible for any given locale on Sat, thus
low confidence temp forecast and as such a blended approach
suffices. Convective concerns are mostly decreased Sat, except
across the Lower Trans Pecos where best SB instability gathers. NW
mid level will persist thru Mon and atmosphere will have a chance
to "reload" with the possibility of nocturnal storms. Sun AM
storms are most favored across PB and late Sun night/early Mon AM
across farw and SE NM. Consistent signal in model data that 85h
temps will remain below 28C, even INVOF Rio Grande, and high temps
will likely be below normal into Tue. Mid level pattern will likely
exhibit a little more ridging from Tue-Thur with possible presence
of mid level theta-e ridge axis Thur, promoting an uptick in
precip coverage? Broadening cyclonic mid level flow will attempt
to suppress mid level ridge keeping temps in check late in the
extended, at least compared to the past week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  79  70  81 /  60  30  50  40
Carlsbad                       67  84  69  88 /  20  20  30  40
Dryden                         77  96  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  72  84  68  88 /  40  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 67  77  63  81 /  20  20  30  40
Hobbs                          64  79  64  81 /  30  10  50  40
Marfa                          66  84  64  86 /  20  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           69  82  67  84 /  50  20  40  40
Odessa                         69  81  68  85 /  50  20  40  40
Wink                           69  85  71  89 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$



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