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000
FXUS64 KMAF 061028
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Colder temperatures are present this morning behind the cold front
with mostly clear skies and light winds.  Temperatures will warm
back up this afternoon as winds become southerly with a lee surface
trough developing.  Temperatures will warm up even more on Friday to
about 10 degrees above normal as the lee surface trough strengthens
and surface winds become westerly.

This surface trough will strengthen in response to an approaching
upper trough that will be digging southward toward the region.  A
cold front associated with this upper trough will push into the area
Saturday morning.  Upper lift will increase over the area so showers
will be possible as the front moves southward.  Temperatures will be
cooler on Saturday with the frontal passage and nearby rain.  By
Sunday morning, the rain should be south of the Pecos River with the
upper trough extending into northern Mexico.  There is a slight
chance of some snow falling across the higher elevations of the
Davis Mountains as temperatures cool to near the freezing point.

Temperatures will warm up slightly by Sunday afternoon with an even
greater warm up occurring on Monday as a lee surface low
redevelops.  Warmer temperatures are expected for Tuesday as the
surface trough strengthens ahead of another approaching upper
trough.  The models are not in very good agreement with regards to
the position and strength of this trough.  Although the ECMWF
produces precipitation across the northern CWA, kept extended
forecast dry for now until models come into better agreement.  A
cold front associated with this upper trough will move into the CWA
on Wednesday contributing to cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  44  78  40  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              69  44  77  39  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                73  43  82  44  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  70  46  76  50  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  49  84  48  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  50  74  42  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   67  40  78  40  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   66  37  72  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  45  78  41  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  70  45  78  41  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    73  44  83  44  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80