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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171527
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1027 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SINKS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A
FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
NOT QUITE SURE WHERE THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
BUT BEST THINKING IS IT WILL BE ORIENTED NEAR A SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE ADDITION OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...PACKAGE WAS SENT AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AT KMAF THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR ANTICIPATED AREAL EXTENT OF
STORMS TO MENTION TSRA IN A TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUP. DID INCLUDE
HOWEVER A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN TSRA AT THE
TERMINALS IN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MUCH THE SAME SETUP WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TODAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ROOSTING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, AND A
STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION VIA SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS.  AN MCS CONTINUED TO TREK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE RED RIVER, WITH A SMALLER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EACH SET OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE
REGION LATER TODAY, ALONG WITH A FEW MORE LATENT ONES FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR
SETUP WILL BE VERY MUCH THE SAME, THERE IS ONE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCE, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO
AS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, NEW
MEXICO, AND EVEN FAR WEST TEXAS.  THE RESULTANT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE MENTIONED
WAVES, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM AND SBCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE TO SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE, BUT CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND
TROPICAL AIRMASS, DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT.
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRESENT A PROBLEM SINCE THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL ALSO DUMP AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR RAINFALL.  LATER TONIGHT, AN
MCS COULD CLIP THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, WITH A LINE OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL.

WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN A SIMILAR POSITION AND THE MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL
OVER THE AREA.  COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON HOW
THINGS PAN OUT TODAY, BUT THINK THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN/
CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN WHERE A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY MAY LIE WILL BE
FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONTINUES EASTWARD THEREAFTER.  SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER RIDGE
IS TRANSIENT.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND, EVEN MORESO
THAN LATE THIS WEEK.  SOME KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE OTHERS
SHIFT IT INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.  FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT LOW ORDER POPS
OVER THE WEST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND TEMPS HOT.  LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHETHER ANOTHER UPPER LOW IMPINGES UPON THE
AREA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A FURTHER EAST UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  70  96  71  /  40  30  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              99  72  96  74  /  40  40  30  30
CARLSBAD NM               100  68 100  70  /  30  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  97  75  96  74  /  30  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  71  98  72  /  50  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          91  69  97  69  /  40  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   94  67  93  67  /  30  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   90  59  93  60  /  50  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  71  97  72  /  40  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  96  73  97  74  /  40  20  20  20
WINK TX                   100  72 101  71  /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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