Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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662
FXUS64 KMAF 212330
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few TSRA are around the area, but should not impact the TAF
sites. A cold front will edge into HOB/MAF this evening with only
an easterly wind less than 10kts. Have introduced MVFR CIGS around
09Z at HOB and 15Z MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge is over the southcentral part of the country
with northeast flow over the area.  An upper level trough is
beginning to move over the West Coast with an upper trough impacting
the Great Lakes area.  Temperatures today will be well above normal
with highs expected to be a little warmer than yesterday.  In fact,
record highs will likely be met or surpassed today for Midland with
a forecasted high of 96 degrees and a record high of 92 degrees set
in 1995. There is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms across the
higher terrain and surrounding area. A cold front will push into the
northern areas of the CWA this evening. There is a slight chance
convection may develop across northeastern sections of the CWA this
evening as a result of this front. By Wednesday morning the front
will likely be near the Pecos River. There might be some brief
patchy fog across portions of the Permian Basin Wednesday morning.
Upper ridging will continue over the region on Wednesday but
temperatures are expected to be a little cooler, especially across
the northern CWA.

On Thursday, the upper trough previously over the West Coast will
begin to move over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  A tight
surface pressure gradient will develop across the area during
Thursday afternoon contributing to very windy conditions across the
whole CWA.  High winds may occur in the Guadalupe Mountains
beginning Thursday afternoon. A dryline will also develop across the
area during the afternoon. Models are showing a surface trough
developing across the Upper Trans Pecos during the afternoon hours.
There is potential of strong to severe storms during the afternoon
and evening hours given high bulk shear and mid-level lapse rates
and decent CAPE along and just east of the dryline.  To the west of
the dryline Thursday afternoon there is potential critical fire
weather with low RH values and windy conditions. See the fire
weather discussion below. High temperatures mostly in the 80s are
expected on Thursday as lower heights move over the area in
association with the upper trough. Both the GFS and NAM12 show the
dryline east of the CWA by Friday morning.

The upper trough will move over the region on Friday with gusty west
winds across the area.  A Pacific front will move across the area
Friday and result in temperatures mostly in the 70s.  Upper ridging
will once again develop on Saturday with another weaker trough
impacting the area on Sunday but not likely bringing any
precipitation.  Yet another trough appears to move over the region
sometime early to mid next week.  Temperatures in the extended are
expected to be mostly in the 70s and 80s.

FIRE WEATHER...

It will be dry across the area tomorrow, but winds will once again
be light. Thursday a deep upper low will approach the area pushing a
pacific front through eastern New Mexico and west Texas. A line of
thunderstorms will develop along the front and push east with very
dry and windy conditions moving in behind. Critical fire weather
conditions may develop mainly west of the Pecos River into the Davis
Mountains which will not receive any of the expected rainfall;
therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Thursday
afternoon. It will also be very wind farther east but higher
dewpoints will prevent critical fire weather conditions from
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  86  60  81 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       51  84  53  90 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         61  88  60  83 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  59  90  59  85 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  82  56  74 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  81  53  82 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          47  86  46  82 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           57  87  61  81 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         57  87  61  81 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           57  88  59  86 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$



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