Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 170608

108 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014


Please see the 17/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.



Another complex situation this morning with surface outflow boundaries
all over the place, multicell TSRA clusters from 60 nm S KFST up to
about KSJT, isolated TSRA from 20 nm N KMDD to near KSNK, and a decaying
MCS near KROW with additional development occurring south near KATS.
Examination of WV imagery indicates the axis of a midlevel shortwave
trough trending WSW-ENE from near KELP through KSWW to KDFW. This trough
is slowly sagging southward and will have an impact on area terminals
through at least sunrise. Deep layer ascent occurring ahead of
the shortwave trough is acting on significant midlevel moisture to
create conditions favorable for continued southeastward propagation
of the multicell clusters as well as additional TSRA development just
about anywhere.

So, what does all this mean in English? Through about noon and outside
of TSRA, look for VFR conditions to prevail with mid and high level
cloud decks. INVOF TSRA, expect gusty winds to maybe 35 kts with
FQT LTGCG and ceilings staying VFR, although visibilities in RA may
fall to AOB 2SM in storm cores. There is also the potential for hybrid
microbursts with the activity this morning.

Surface winds will be chaotic given the TSRA activity but should
gradually become easterly to southeasterly by midday. Drier air
behind the shortwave trough should keep TSRA activity away from
KHOB, KINK, KMAF, and KPEQ, while isolated TSRA may affect KCNM
and KFST sometime in the 21Z-02Z time range. Confidence is too low
right now to include mention of TSRA at these locations, but it
bears watching nonetheless. After 02Z, look for TSRA coverage to
be down across the Big Bend and upper trans-Pecos regions of west
Texas with VFR conditions and light southeasterly winds Sunday
night at all terminals.






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