Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 150759
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
259 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
As of this writing a fast moving cold front has moved very near the
I-20 Corridor with a solid 25-35 mph sustained post-frontal wind.
Tstms that initiated in SE NM/NW PB earlier have mostly expanded/moved
e in wake of the cold front. We tend think that storms will increase
across the Upper Trans Pecos/wrn PB through 09Z or so when front arrive
there with storms then spreading e into the central/southern PB. Tstms
will mostly have ended around 15Z for areas n of I-20 and have dissipated
elsewhere by 21Z. Storms are expected to be the strongest before 15Z with
brief heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds the main concerns this
AM. By 12Z the front will already be in the Trans Pecos. Timing for the wind
advisory looks pretty good and we do not foresee any changes ATTM, updates
will be issued for advisory around/before 12Z. A good radiational cooling
set-up will follow for Mon AM as surface dwpnts in the U20s-L30s resides
within the surface ridge which will envelope most of the CWFA. Widespread
L40s are easy attainable while Canadian model suggests 35-40 across most of
the PB. Current forecast has good handle on this with lows mostly in the
M30s-L40s and we will make on minor changes. Pressure falls will commence Mon
PM and with abundant insolation temps will be able to climb back into the
U60s-L70s, about 7-10 degrees below normal. There will not be enough time
for any low level mstr return Tue AM and another cool AM can be expected,
lows 40-45 from Pecos River nwd. Dry NW mid level flow into Tue PM does favor
warming and high temps will be back close to normal. Low level mstr will work
back into the PB/Lower Trans Pecos Thur/Fri with high temps just a degree or 2
above normal. Into the weekend the mid level flow changes as a mid/upper low
seemingly is cutoff and holds up across NM or AZ. This may eventually bring
precip into the forecast on Sunday, especially if a slow moving front stretches
w-e from NM Plains into W TX as ECMWF indicates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  39  72  44 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       68  38  72  41 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         73  50  74  46 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  46  72  48 /  30   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  43  68  51 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          68  35  70  42 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          66  41  71  37 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  40  71  43 /  30   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  40  71  44 /  30   0   0   0
Wink                           70  41  72  40 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to noon CDT today for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 11 AM MDT this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$



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