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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through this evening. Cold front currently
moving slowly southeast through the Permian Basin of west Texas.
Behind this front expect northeast winds of generally 10 to 15 mph
through tonight. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
around 09z tonight and continue through Friday morning. There
is some potential for IFR conditions to develop and later shifts
will monitor.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
At 12Z, a cold front extended from Snyder to MAF to PEQ. This front
should pass through FST by 14Z. Winds behind the front are expected
to be gusty, particularly around CNM through mid morning. Winds
are expected to decrease and veer to northeast and east this
afternoon and evening, at generally 12 knots or less.

VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected through
06Z. MVFR and occasionally IFR conditions are expected to develop
across southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals between
06Z and 12Z due to lowering cloud ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently coming into the area starting in southeast
New Mexico where winds are gusting out of the north to northwest.
This front is a result of an upper level trough that is moving over
the Southern Plains.  The front will continue moving into the area
through the morning and early afternoon hours which will result in
cooler temperatures for this afternoon.  A shortwave moving near the
area may provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms across the
Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.

The upper trough will pass to the east of the region on Friday, but
there will still be upper lift over the area so showers will be
possible Friday morning across far eastern sections of the CWA.
Another upper level trough will move toward the region from southern
California on Friday.  Upper level lift will start moving over far
western sections of the CWA so thunderstorms will be possible in
these areas Friday afternoon.  The upper trough will move closer to
the region on Saturday resulting in shortwaves moving over the
area.  This upper level lift will allow for thunderstorms to develop
areawide by Saturday afternoon.  An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the Lower Trans Pecos as
CAPE and shear values will be greater there.  The precipitation will
gradually move out of the area on Sunday as the upper trough starts
to move to the east of the region.

A surface trough will develop in the wake of the upper trough
resulting in a significant warm up on Sunday.  A gradual warm up
will occur next week as an upper level ridge develops over the
region.  This warm up will be enhanced on Wednesday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area in advance of another upper
trough.  It appears that the upper trough will move to the north of
the region on Thursday but the track is uncertain as the models are
quite different in the placement of this trough.  Left extended
forecast dry for now until better model agreement is reached.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  52  76  58  /  10   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  54  76  59  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  48  78  54  /   0   0  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  82  59  77  62  /  10  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  55  79  60  /   0  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  46  74  52  /   0   0  20  30
HOBBS NM                   70  47  75  53  /   0   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   75  42  74  51  /   0   0  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  54  77  59  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  54  77  58  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    79  53  79  59  /   0   0  10  20

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/80