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000
FXUS64 KMAF 051735
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Main concern will be the freezing precipitation crossing the area
this afternoon and tonight. The back edge of the heavier sleet and
freezing rain will move across KMAF in the next hour with
scattered sleet showers expected elsewhere throughout the day.
Look for MVFR cigs with some low visibilities in areas of
precipitation. We could see another round of sleet and snow later
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2013/

UPDATE...

Sending an update to now include the Trans Pecos and Highway 54
corridor in the Winter Weather Advisory. Freezing rain is
beginning to increase across the area as cold air continues to
move further south and west. Bridges and overpasses will begin to
ice up and travel will become dangerous across the advised area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2013/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently barreling southwestward in the Pecos Valley
with temperatures currently in the 20s to lower 30s behind it.
Prefer the colder and more moist ECMWF model through tonight based
on latest temperature and radar trends. We have expanded the
winter weather advisory today and tonight to include the Guadalupe
Mountains, southeast New Mexico plains, and the northern and
central Permian Basin. Precipitation currently is expanding
rapidly across southeast New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos
region ahead of a large upper level trough and upper jet moving
through the Rockies. More precipitation can be seen on radar
across southern New Mexico and extreme west Texas. As the
precipitation encounters the colder air the dominant precipitation
type through the day today in the advisory area will be freezing
rain due to warm and moist air overrunning freezing temperatures
at the surface. Away from the advisory area there will be a chance
of just rain today with colder temperatures.

For tonight went with chance to likely pops due to overrunning
and forcing continuing with the approach of the upper level storm
system with enhanced lift from the right rear quadrant of the
upper level jet. Surface cold air will continue to funnel south
and the chance of freezing rain will expand southward to include
the lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains. The day shift will need
to monitor these areas for a possible winter weather advisory
overnight as well. Across the southeast Mexico plains and the
northern Permian Basin, snow and sleet is also expected along with
freezing rain. In these areas up to 1 to 2 inches of snow and
sleet will also be possible.

By Friday the precipitation is expected to come to an end as the
upper level trough weakens and moves east. The cold air will
continue to ooze south with high temperatures likely remaining at
or below freezing under cloudy skies across the northern and
central Permian Basin with high temperatures expected from the
upper 30s near the Pecos River to the mid 50s south along the Rio
Grande River. A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected Saturday
under cloudy skies with high temperatures remaining in the 20s and
30s across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. The
exception will be near 50 degrees along and near the Rio Grande
River and the Van Horn Highway 54 corridor. In addition patchy
freezing drizzle will be possible Saturday and Saturday night
across the Permian Basin as overrunning commences again ahead of
the next upper level trough approaching from the Rockies.

By Sunday the next upper trough will amplify as it drops
southeastward over the central/ southern Rockies Saturday night
with the initial shortwave trough ejecting eastward from it
resulting in the base of the upper level trough skirting northern
fringes of the forecast area Sunday. This will allow the cold
airmass over the region to be dislodged somewhat as westerly
downslope winds develop to the east of the higher terrain.
Temperatures will warm to the 50s and 60s along and west of the
Pecos River, but will remain in the 40s along and to the east.
However, cold temperatures will return to the region Monday
through next Wednesday as another arctic airmass drops south
through the region in the wake of this upper level trough
with no precipitation expected.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Scurry...Winkler.


&&

$$

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