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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241031
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
431 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc winds will
generally back slightly, and a few high clouds will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough is over the eastern conus and Upper Midwest
with a closed low strengthening off the coast of Mexico south of
California this morning.  Temperatures will warm up into the 50s
across most of the area this afternoon with light westerly winds.
An even greater warm up is expected on Sunday with temperatures in
the 60s for most of the area and remaining warm through Thursday.
Some locations across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos may see high temperatures in
the 70s beginning on Monday. The upper pattern is expected to not
change much with an upper trough remaining over the eastern conus
and upper ridging over the western half of the conus.  The
previously mentioned closed low will allow for a slight chance of
rain Monday afternoon through Monday night for mainly locations
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos as mid-level moisture from
this low gets pulled over the region. Models show this closed low
becoming embedded within the upper ridge and moving northward and
weakening by Tuesday afternoon.  An upper trough moving over the
Upper Midwest will send a cold front through the area on Thursday
cooling temperatures into the lower 60s depending on the timing of
the front.

Beginning next Thursday/Friday, the models show another closed low
developing just off the coast of California and moving eastward
heading into next weekend.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing
precipitation beginning on Thursday and lasting through next weekend
over the CWA associated with this low.  The precipitation appears to
be scattered across the area on Friday resulting in even cooler
temperatures than those on Thursday. An upper trough moving over the
Northern Plains will send a strong cold front southward into the
area next Saturday.  The precipitation across the area looks to be
mostly in the form of rain until this cold front passes through the
region.  After the frontal passage, wintry precipitation is possible
beginning Saturday night.  Since this is still a week away, will
continue to monitor this system as it develops and moves closer.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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