087
FXUS64 KMAF 261734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (20-70%) continue for areas
  west of the Pecos River each day. Locally heavy rainfall and
  flash flooding will continue to be the main threat.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (10-30%) return to the Permian
  Basin/Lower Trans-Pecos early next week.

- Temperatures remain near normal each day and night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge centered over Kentucky
or thereabouts, and extending all the way southwest through central
Texas and then some.  To the west, the upper trough remains over
SoCal/Baja, sending perturbations through southwest flow aloft
through the region, as evidenced by ongoing convection out west.
KMAF 00Z RAOB came in with a fairly respectable PWAT of
1.40"...above the 90th percentile of 1.34".  NAEFS suggests PWATS
will remain at least 2 std devs or more above normal through 12Z
Friday.  KMAF radar bias as of 05Z was a fresh 1.37, indicating that
this airmass remains truly tropical.  MRMS estimates for the past 72
hrs indicate abundant rainfall (up to over 4.75" in isolated areas)
has fallen west of the Pecos from the Davis Mountains up through
Chavez County.  This will put one heckuva dent in D4 drought
conditions out west.  Unfortunately, better rainfall has missed
Presidio County, as reflected in NASA SPoRT soil moisture products,
rainfall reports, and modest responses on the Rio Grande.

Still, we`ll take what we can get out here.  The current flood watch
looks good, and extends through 06Z Friday.  However, given little
expected change in the synoptic pattern over the next 48 hours, and
saturated soils out west, this may need to be stretched yet another
24 hours or so, and we`ll confer w/the next shift on this.  POPs
remain relatively decent west of the Pecos, and as long as the
airmass remains tropical, flash flooding will remain a concern.

That said, best chances for convection today will remain west of the
Pecos, although CAMs increase chances a little farther east and
northeast this afternoon and evening.  Temperatures look similar to
yesterday`s, only increasing thicknesses suggest they may be a
degree or so warmer overall.

Tonight,as w/the past few nights, convection will diminish to the
higher terrain out west.  The LLJ is forecast to remain under 40
kts, which is quite the change from the past week or two.  However,
decreased mixing promoting more efficient radiational cooling will
be negated by persistent debris/high cloud, keeping overnight lows
near to 5 F above normal and similar to this morning`s.

Friday looks like a repeat of today, only increasing thicknesses
suggest highs will be a degree or two warmer.  Also, CAMs don`t
bring convection as far east as this afternoon.  As mentioned above,
the flood watch may need to be extended through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Weak mid-level ridging continues across the region, keeping
temperatures near normal throughout the extended (90s areawide
except for 80s at higher elevations). A high pressure system located
at the Texas/Louisiana boarder will advect more Gulf moisture and
bring southeasterly upslope flow into the area. This upslope flow
will induce orographic ascent, bringing additional chances of
showers and thunderstorms (20-70%) for locations west of the Pecos
River each day and night. It is thus warranted to have higher PoPs
(50-70%) over the mountains, particularly the Davis Mountains. PWATs
continue to be anomalously high (75th to 90th percentiles per the
SPC Sounding Climatology page), maintaining flash flood concerns for
areas west of the Pecos River where soils are too saturated to hold
anymore moisture. Therefore, more Flood Watches are likely to be
issued in the extended.

Numerical model guidance depicts a disturbance moving into west
Texas and southeast New Mexico early next week. This combined with a
cold front situated over the South Plains of Texas should
destabilize the troposphere enough to foster the development of
showers and thunderstorms farther east into the Permian Basin.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions will mainly prevail through the period. More isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
through the early evening hours across most terminals. Heavy
rainfall associated with these showers and storms will bring
visibilities down to MVFR conditions briefly. Given the isolated
to scattered nature of this precipitation, PROB30s were
implemented for most except for CNM where confidence is higher for
showers/storms to occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  96  73  97 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 69  89  70  92 /  30  40  20  20
Dryden                   73  97  74  98 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            71  93  72  94 /  20  20  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           65  81  65  84 /  40  50  20  30
Hobbs                    68  90  69  92 /  30  20  10  10
Marfa                    63  83  64  85 /  30  60  20  60
Midland Intl Airport     72  95  73  96 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                   71  93  73  94 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     71  93  72  94 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for Chinati Mountains-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-
     Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11