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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171942
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
242 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
As expected, virtually the entire area has exceeded the century
mark this afternoon with even higher elevation locations like
Marfa and Guadalupe Pass nearing 100 degrees. We will probably see
a few records fall, with the MAF record of 108 already having been
reached with several hours of heating still left in the day.

There is an unusual amount of uncertainty in the forecast for
Sunday and Monday as models differ on the arrival of a cold front
tomorrow. Hi-res short term models and the GFS are in good
agreement with a cold front pushing through the Permian Basin
tomorrow morning bringing cooler temperatures. The Canadian and
ECMWF both hold the front just to our north allowing for another
very hot day. This forecast is based off the hi-res models in the
belief that greater lower level resolution will better capture the
shallow cool air mass. However the higher resolution models are
also showing a post frontal cloud deck developing which seemingly
keeps the MET too cool. Highs for tomorrow were based on 850mb
extrapolation of the GFS to the surface which is much higher than
the MET though a few degrees cooler than the MAV.

Return flow will develop Sunday night and broken cloud cover
should develop Monday morning. The front will begin lifting north
and increasing temperatures, along with a weak upper disturbance
and residual low level moisture from the morning cloud cover could
cause isolated convection Monday afternoon and evening. Have
added slight chance PoPs from southeastern New Mexico east across
the Permian Basin, which could be our best chance for rain next
week as high pressure over the Four Corners region slowly
encroaches into the area bringing highs back into the 100s.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very hot and dry conditions continue across the area this afternoon.
Winds remain elevated across the Guadalupe Mountains so fire danger
will stay high across this area for the next few hours. A cold front
will arrive around sunrise Sunday bringing much cooler and more
moist conditions. Rh`s will likely rise through the day behind the
front with the lowest rh`s along the Rio Grande in the morning. This
will not coincide with the strongest winds so will leave the Fire
Weather Watch as is and let the mid shift decide on canceling it.
Fire weather concerns will be quite low through the upcoming week
with fairly light winds even though temperatures will be on the way
back up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  91  69  95 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       67  94  66  97 /   0  10   0  20
Dryden                         72 107  75 100 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  96  66  99 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 67  83  60  86 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                          65  87  63  92 /   0  10   0  20
Marfa                          60  88  57  92 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  91  64  96 /   0  10  10  20
Odessa                         71  90  64  96 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                           67  93  66  98 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Southern
     Lea County.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County.

     Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-
     Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-
     Gaines-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Presidio Valley-Upton.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Borden-
     Dawson-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-
     Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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