Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170006
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Moisture return from generally ESE flow at the surface and
associated isentropic ascent will result in MVFR ceilings tonight
at areal terminals. Surface winds will continue veering from
easterly tonight to predominately westerly tomorrow afternoon as a
surface ridge move out of the area. Westerly flow is expected to
result in clearing to VFR conditions by late morning except at
INK, MAF, & FST where marginal MVFR ceilings may persist through
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

83

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