Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

731
FXUS64 KMAF 142031
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CST Thursday...a pleasant afternoon
across the CWA with near normal temps (normal for MAF is 58).

It looks like the 12Z GFS and ECMWF have come into better
agreement into early next week. The outlier seems to be the 12Z
Canadian model. The GFS/ECMWF start to diverge more as we head
into the Christmas Weekend (more on that later)...but the
consistency is markedly better than yesterday.

A upper level trof will swing across the CWA overnight with a
piece of energy cutting off over the central Gulf of California.
Have kept in the slight chance pops in the southwest CWA
tonight...mainly light rain but there could be a little snow mixed
in in the higher elevations. The upper low meanders into northern
Sinaloa Friday night as a strong shortwave drops out of the Gulf
of Alaska and drops south thru California. The upper low in
Sinaloa opens up and lifts northeast over Texas during the
weekend. Have kept most of the weekend dry...except in the
western and northwest CWA where there could be light rain Sunday
and Sunday night. Meanwhile the strong trof in California splits
with a piece of energy forming yet again another upper low over
northern Sonora. That upper low opens into a trof and lifts
northeast the beginning of next week. It looks like the CWA will
remain dry Monday/Tuesday with normal to above normal temps.
Quasi-zonal flow will be the rule thru Thursday resulting in dry
weather with above normal temps.

Looking further ahead to the Christmas Weekend (beyond the current
extended)...The GFS and ECMWF diverge over the weekend but both
solutions bring a significant shot of Arctic air into the CWA
starting around next Friday. Both the GFS/ECMWF are also indc a
little winter precip during this time. The 12Z GFS ensembles
generally support this scenario as well. The outlier is the 12Z
Canadian with has more of a zonal flow and keeps the Arctic air
well to the north.

Bottom line is that the trend is toward winter-type weather the
weekend before Christmas. However...this far out I wouldn`t go to
Vegas and place any bets on this scenario quite yet as the model
solutions can change.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         39  57  37  57 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  32  54  35  59 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 30  46  31  51 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          26  53  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          32  47  26  54 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  54  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         29  53  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           29  55  31  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/33



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.