Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221755
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers NE of KMAF will continue progressing NE. Elsewhere skies
are expected to become VFR areawide by 22/21Z. Light winds and
mostly clear skies will set up a nice radiative fog event by
sunrise, as indicated by model BUFR soundings. Shallow MVFR vsbys
in fog are expected areawide with localized IFR vsbys possible for
a few hours. Vsbys could fall to LIFR category at KHOB as this
terminal`s vsby seems to crater for some unknown reason. The fog
will lift quickly after daybreak with variable surface winds and
VFR conditions...ideal GA flying weather.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z aviation discussion can be found below.

AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue across the area this morning, and the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early
this evening, along and east of a KHOB-KPEQ-KPRS line. Have
maintained -SHRA mention for KHOB, and introduced -SHRA for the
first couple hours of the valid period for KMAF due to an area of
showers currently moving northward through the Permian Basin.
While flight conditions should largely remain VFR, areas of low
clouds could result in transient MVFR conditions, mainly prior to
18Z today. Expect ceilings to scatter out between 00-03Z this
evening, and gradually clear through the end of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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