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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230526
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1126 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
affecting terminals through Friday morning. Generally have IFR/LIFR
cigs and vis at most sites tonight however some locations are
showing a brief improvement to MVFR for the time being. This should
be short-lived as new model runs show conditions getting much worse
with fog/LIFR vis developing in the next few hours. Currently have
-SN reported at all terminals at 05Z but periods of moderate snow
may result in lower vis than what is forecasted. Conditions expected
to improve by mid morning Friday with precip ending from NW to SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
affecting terminals overnight. Currently have IFR/LIFR cigs and vis
across the board this evening with mainly -SN reported at all
but PEQ, where -RA will likely change to -SN tonight. Expect this to
continue overnight into the early morning hours Friday. Snow should
remain light most of the time however periods of moderate/heavy snow
may occur, lowering visibilities beyond what is forecasted.
Conditions expected to improve by mid morning Friday with precip
ending from NW to SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level low serving as the driving force behind today`s
wintry weather continues to dig southward across southwestern New
Mexico toward far west Texas. Recent water vapor imagery shows a
plume of moisture continuing to stream over the area ahead of the
low. Infrared satellite also shows cooling cloud tops across
southeastern New Mexico and southwest Texas, evidence of the
increasing amount of lift overspreading the area ahead of the
approaching trough. Much of the area has seen a rain and snow mix
for most of the day today, though accumulations have generally
been under an inch as ground temperatures remain warm and snow is
melting as it falls. The exception to this is across southeastern
New Mexico and in the Guadalupe Mountains, where 4 to 6 inches of
accumulation have already been reported. As temperatures drop this
evening to near/below freezing, expect all snow to prevail, and
accumulations to increase across the area. Overnight, the axis of
heaviest snow will gradually shift south over the Lower Trans
Pecos and Davis Mountains. Still think the going storm total snow
accumulations look to be on track, with roughly a widespread 2-4
inches of accumulation, and upwards of 6 to 7 inches across the
higher terrain of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Apache Mountains. A
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until Friday morning for
southeast New Mexico, the western and central Permian Basin, Upper
Trans Pecos, and locations south and west of the Pecos River
excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell County. A Winter Weather
Advisory also remains in effect through Friday morning for the
eastern and southern Permian Basin. Please refer to the
Warning/Advisory products for details.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the trough axis
finally swings through the area, ushering precipitation to the east,
with dry conditions expected by Friday afternoon. The warming trend
will continue into next week as a 500mb ridge develops, extending
from south Texas northwestward toward the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures will rise well into the 60s by Wednesday, though the
ridge will begin to flatten out by Wednesday afternoon as upper
level flow splits and yet another southern stream trough begins
to dig south over the west coast. Currently, the GFS and ECMWF
solutions diverge in their handling of the aforementioned trough for
the end of next week, with the ECMWF developing a cutoff low off
of the Baja Peninsula by late week, versus the GFS which maintains
an open wave, but quite a bit more moisture. Given the
uncertainties that far out, have elected to maintain only sub-
mentionable PoPs in the extended at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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