Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
603 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Wind Advisory to expire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Surface winds are decreasing early this evening as the pressure
gradient slowly slackens, and cooling temperatures are allowing
winds to decouple from h85 winds on the order of 30 to 40kt.  With
the loss of heating, showers over the area were also diminishing,
which will limit higher surface wind gusts from precipitation
evaporating in the drier lower levels of the atmosphere.
Considering all of the above, will allow the Wind Advisory in effect
until 24/00Z over northern and central Lea county, and Gaines
county, to expire.  The rest of the forecast appears to be on track
with a gradually clearing sky and temperatures dropping into the 20s
and lower 30s overnight.  Therefore, there will be no other changes
to the forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Upper-lvl trough movg
thru Texas will be followed by subsidence/clearing skies and
slackening pressure gradients, w/sfc flow backing slightly after sunrise.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A wintry mix of precipitation continues to wind down and shift south
and east as the trough axis shifts east of the area, though winds
over far southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin have
increased, with gusts up to 40 to 50KT reported this afternoon in
northern and central Lea county and northwestern Gaines county.
There is a Wind Advisory in effect for these locations until 00Z
this evening, when gusts are expected to diminish.

Clearing skies and continued cold advection tonight will result in
quite cold temperatures overnight, with lows dropping to the 20s
across most of the area, and coldest conditions expected on the
Marfa Plateau where the low should bottom out in the middle teens.
Weak ridging will develop over the area on Wednesday and Thursday as
today`s trough lifts toward the northeast, allowing temperatures to
moderate into the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday, and then warm to
the 60s and perhaps even a few spots in the low 70s on Christmas
Day. The warming trend will be short-lived, however, as another
trough is expected to swing through the region, accompanied by a
surface cold front this weekend. Temperatures over the weekend will
once again drop below normal, and given there will be moisture
accompanying this system, a wintry mix of precipitation is possible
over the weekend. Differences in timing of the front and cold air
still exist between different guidance, however, thus, have
maintained the slight chance/chance pops during the Friday
night-Saturday night time frame, with the best shot of snow Saturday
night when temperatures drop into the 20s area-wide and before the
trough shifts east of the area.

A high-amplitude positively-tilted upper trough is progged to move
through the region by next Tuesday-Wednesday, with guidance
indicating very strong cold air advection behind a potent cold
front, which could spell our first real cold blast of this winter
season. Thus, have sided with the cooler ECMWF guidance, though have
held back on any mentionable PoPs for the time being.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 28  49  29  62  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              31  51  31  63  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                25  51  34  68  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  34  56  30  63  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           27  52  36  70  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          23  44  31  58  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   24  48  25  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   16  48  17  62  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    27  50  29  63  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  27  50  29  63  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    26  53  25  65  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/84

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