Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 230429
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1029 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings and possibly low visibilities will develop and move
into the area tonight for MAF, INK, FST, and PEQ. Ceilings and
visibilities should improve by/around 18z. Winds will be light and
variable overnight and will become southerly Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 939 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Latest model data and a look at area radars suggest POPs can be
lowered/cut back a bit. We`ll do a quick update for this. Updates
out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through Friday night as a
Pacific storm system slowly tracks toward the region. Another cool
and moist night is expected with light winds and trapped low level
moisture aiding in areas of fog late tonight and Friday morning
across the Permian Basin. Will also continue a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms through the day Friday in the extreme
eastern Permian Basin ahead of a dryline in this persistent flow
regime. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase
Friday night across the central and eastern Permian Basin ahead of
the dryline and Pacific front as large scale lift increases ahead
of the aforementioned Pacific system tracking into the Rockies.

By late Friday night and Saturday the upper level storm system
will move onto the plains. Strong winds may develop in the Guadalupe
Mountains as winds significantly increase through the column.
Will go ahead and issue a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe
Mountains late Friday evening through Saturday. Windy to very
windy conditions may develop in portions of the plains Saturday
and Wind Advisories may be needed Saturday behind the Pacific
front.

Behind this system dry conditions and near normal temperatures are
expected in near zonal flow Saturday through next Monday. Another
Pacific storm looks in the offing by the middle of next week but
guidance is still in significant disagreement on the outcomes
for this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  61  45  65 /  10  20  30   0
Carlsbad                       35  68  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  72  48  78 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  39  72  42  64 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  65  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  67  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  70  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  65  43  64 /   0  10  20   0
Odessa                         39  64  43  64 /   0  10  20   0
Wink                           37  70  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/



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