Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 311129
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 AM CDT Sun May 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR to MVFR conditions will persist at TAF locations through 15z
due to low ceilings and reduced visibility due to fog. VFR
conditions are expected after 15Z with isolated thunderstorms possible
for KFST later this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT Sun May 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Precipitation chances will be less, and temperatures will warm above
normal as an upper level ridge expands over the region.  Will still
keep a slight chance of thunderstorms going most of these days since
there will be some low level moisture available at times, and there
are some indications a shortwave trough or two will round the
northern periphery of the upper ridge and affect the region.
Temperatures rising above normal looks fairly certain, and due to
the intense heating of the higher terrain, or along a surface
trough/dryline each afternoon and evening, think it best to have the
low order chance of thunderstorms most days.  Any storms that do
form could become strong enough to produce gusty winds, if not small
hail.

The latest crop of models indicate the upper ridge will weaken
somewhat by next weekend due to an upper trough approaching the
region via the southwest ConUS.  However, most models now eject this
trough further west than previous days runs which would leave the
upper ridge more over the region.  We`ll have to wait and see how
accurate this is since models have not done well so far this year
prognosticating upper ridges in the extended forecast.  Until then,
will keep temperatures above normal and PoPs on the low end.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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