837
FXUS64 KMAF 091945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Temperatures will increase through Friday afternoon, when highs
  will average a couple of degrees above normal, and chances of
  rain decrease.

- Chances of rain will begin increasing after Friday, coincident
  with a cooling trend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

An upper-level ridge of high pressure is hovering over northwestern
Mexico and, with our region near its eastern edge. Meanwhile, a
shortwave trough progresses from the Pacific Northwest toward the
Great Plains, dampening the ridge as it does so. At the surface, an
area of high pressure over the Gulf continues to bring moisture out
of the south and southeast. Conditions this evening look to remain
dry for most, though some isolated showers and storms may develop
within the Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin. Rain chances
increase again late Thursday afternoon and evening. This a result of
the upper trough generating sufficient lift to kick up a few
showers/storms as it translates into the central Great Plains. At
the moment, the best rain chances lie over southeast New Mexico,
with PoPs of 10-20%. The HRRR and the NAMNST are hinting at a broken
line of storms sweeping southeastward from central New Mexico
overnight before falling apart as it approaches the Permian Basin
early Friday morning. Should any storms become severe, the main
threats will be frequent lightning and damaging winds. Otherwise,
temperatures tonight and Thursday night are forecast to settle into
the mid 60s/70s. Thursday`s highs will generally heat into the
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Friday, the upper ridge is forecast to cover the southern CONUS and
areas south of the border, extending from Baja del Norte to the
Bahamas.  However, a col will be developing over central Texas as a
trough digs through the Central Plains.  This will create a shear
zone aloft, resulting in increasing chances of precipitation.  Over
the weekend, a secondary trough is forecast to dig south into the
Southern Plains, and the col is forecast to develop farther west
over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Best chances look to be
Saturday night, but the col/synoptic pattern will persist through
next week.  Thursday or Friday night, PWATs begin increasing,
w/NAEFS ensembles increasing them to 1.5 std devs or so above normal
Saturday night, above the 90th percentile.  These parameters are not
quite as tropical as what occurred during the past couple of weeks,
but the potential for appreciable QPF continues.  Even so, NBM POPs
may be just a bit overdone past Saturday evening.

As would be expected, the col will have a moderating effect on
temperatures throughout the long term.  In fact, Friday looks to be
the warmest day of the forecast, but highs will only average a
couple of degrees above normal.  As the col develops west through
the weekend, highs will gradually decrease, to 5-10 F below normal
by Monday afternoon, and only increasing slightly Tuesday/Wednesday.
Unfortunately, a recurring LLJ each night will promote mixing. This
will combine with debris cloud to retard radiational cooling,
resulting in uncomfortably warm overnight lows remaining at or above
normal.

NBM wind speeds throughout the extended are too low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions are on tap through the period. Winds will generally
be light, out of the south and southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                   72  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            70  96  71  99 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           67  90  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                    68  93  70  94 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    62  90  63  92 /   0   0   0  40
Midland Intl Airport     72  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   72  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     70  95  72  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...95