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000
FXUS64 KMAF 161755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail during this TAF period. Winds may
increase at MAF and FST after 00Z due to thunderstorm outflow,
however convection should remain east of all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas will remain under fairly weak
westerly flow aloft today while an upper ridge to the east slowly
begins to inch westward. This will result in heights increasing
slightly across the area however with intense afternoon heating
expected, think at least isolated thunderstorms will be possible
across east and southern zones where moisture will be best. Not
expecting widespread severe weather but a few storms could produce
some strong, damaging winds. Otherwise, locally heavy rainfall
continues to be the main threat and may result in areas of flash
flooding, especially across urban areas. 850 mb temperatures
increase today to near 28-30F, pushing surface highs into the
upper 90s to near 100 some areas. Thursday, thunderstorm chances
expand westward a bit as moisture transport reaches farther west
with increased SE flow. 850mb temps back off a few degrees and
slightly cooler highs expected.

The upper ridge will continue to build to the west heading into
the weekend, decreasing rain chances across the FA. Looks like we
could get enough heating/instability and southeast/upslope flow in
and near the mountains to overcome the suppression of the upper
ridge for some afternoon/evening storms each day through the
weekend. Despite slowly increasing heights through the weekend
into next week, high temperatures look to remain near normal for
mid August.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  75  96  74 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  69  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         96  76  98  75 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  97  73  97  72 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 90  68  90  67 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          94  67  94  69 /  10   0  20  20
Marfa                          90  64  88  62 /  10  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           98  74  97  74 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         97  74  97  73 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                          100  74  99  74 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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