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000
FXUS64 KMAF 211935
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
235 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today is the first full day of Summer, but as we all know it has
felt like it for a while around here. Today has been no different
as temperatures climb to near 100 across the region this
afternoon. The large upper ridge remains anchored over the Desert
SW while Tropical Storm Cindy nears the NW Gulf Coast. Upper winds
around these systems will keep northerly flow aloft in place over
our area through the rest of this week into the weekend. Warming
in the mid levels will allow afternoon high temperatures to climb
to Heat Advisory levels both Thursday and Friday for portions of
the area. Have gone ahead and issued the advisory for Thursday
across the western 2/3 of our CWA where temperatures will be the
hottest. This advisory will likely be extended into Friday if the
current forecast pans out. Also with this type of flow aloft,
thunderstorms that develop across the TX Panhandle or NE NM will
have a shot at making into our area. Our first opportunity for
this to occur is later tonight as storms are already developing to
our north. Hi-res models bring convection into the northern half
of the area late tonight so have increased precip chances there.
Not much changes Thursday as more storms develop north and slide
south toward the area.

A shortwave trough moving across the Northern Plains will send a
cold front south, likely reaching the TX Panhandle Friday.
Intense heating along with a weak shortwave rounding the upper
ridge should be enough to fire storms to our north along the
front. These storms could then move south into our area overnight
Friday into Saturday morning. Latest model runs have backed off
on the frontal passage for Saturday, but the boundary could get an
extra push if a large area of thunderstorms develop and move
through. Early next week looks cooler with highs only in the 80`s
and 90`s. Moisture doesn`t clear out behind the front so storm
chances will continue through at least Monday. By this time, the
upper ridge will reassert itself over Texas, although it will be
fairly weak. Expect drier conditions with rising temperature by
the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70 101  75 103 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       73 109  73 105 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         74 103  76 104 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  75 108  77 106 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 74 102  75  97 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69 105  71 101 /  20   0   0  20
Marfa                          62 101  64 100 /  10  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           74 104  78 105 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         74 104  78 104 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           72 107  74 107 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
     Thursday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

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