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000
FXUS64 KMAF 030524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours continues to be low
cigs/vis affecting terminals overnight and Monday morning. Currently
looking at IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but CNM this evening,
however CNM should drop to LIFR a bit later. Poor flight conditions
will continue through Monday morning and possibly into early
afternoon. Could see vis 1/2-1/4SM at times, particularly at
HOB/MAF/FST but for now will only carry 1-2SM attm. Initially
thought temperatures would hold above freezing overnight but HOB and
MAF are currently sitting at 32. Will hold off on including mention
of FZFG for now, but will continue to monitor trends and amend if
temps decrease further. Otherwise, conditions may finally improve at
most sites Monday afternoon.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

UPDATE...
Ran a quick forecast update to increase PoPs over western zones
through 12Z where a deep plume of subtropical moisture continues
to stream over the region. Light radar echoes indicating maybe
some very light showers across these areas and to the west look to
continue overnight. IR satellite shows cooler cloud tops to the SW
of the Rio Grande moving toward these areas therefore continuing
light rain through early morning. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast package looks to be on track and no other changes were
needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Visible satellite show wrn edge of low clouds from CNM to PEQ to FST
are slowly lifting and may temporarily break. Meanwhile IFR CIGS are
at MAF/CNM/PEQ with MVFR vsby at MAF attm. 00Z MAF sounding shows
little change in moisture depth and seems to be little chance that
clouds will break here. Concern for the night is how low will
CIGS/VSBY go. Models have done terrible job last few days and will
continue with more of persistence forecast noting that T/Td spread
are a little greater than previous 24hrs indicating development of
lower vsby may be delayed a few hrs. Based on better established
low level w-sw flow Tue low clouds will break tmw, but after 15Z.
However it will still be mostly cloudy with IR satellite showing
extensive mid clouds. Precip will probably hold off the w thru
00Z/Wed but may not be too far from CNM/PEQ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.

I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.

Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normal diurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.

Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  66  41  43  /   0  10  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              38  68  43  43  /  10  10  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                39  66  39  50  /  20  10  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  43  69  48  61  /  10   0  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  72  46  53  /  10  10  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  57  37  48  /  30  20  20  30
HOBBS NM                   36  62  37  41  /  10  10  10  40
MARFA TX                   39  65  40  56  /  10  30  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  68  43  46  /  10  10  30  40
ODESSA TX                  36  67  44  47  /   0  10  30  40
WINK TX                    39  69  43  51  /  10  10  30  40

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/99

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