Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 111126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015


Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southwest
winds will increase and could gust to around 20-25kt this
afternoon, with gusts diminishing this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM CDT Sunday...tranquil is the
least weatherwise for the upcoming week with dry weather and above
normal aftn temps.

Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the upper
low west of Baja California...a ridge in the Southern
Intermountain West...and a shortwave in the Pacific NW. The upper
low will slowly meander its way north to the CA coast by Thursday
morning...with the ridge remaining over the CWA. Temps today will
be 5-10 degrees above normal with downslope flow and H85 thermal
ridge overhead...but will remain below record values.

The shortwave in the Pacific NW will move east across the
northern tier of states. A cold front will drop south into West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico on Monday. It looks like the front will
move across the northern counties in the late morning...the
Permian Basin in the early aftn...and to the Rio Grande Valley in
the early evening. With the best dynamics and moisture well north
of the CWA it will be a dry frontal passage. The main impact will
be gusty winds Monday...but not to Advisory levels with temps near
normal. Monday night could be the coolest night since the end of
April. With a dry continental airmass...and decoupling of the
boundary layer resulting in light winds there will be good
radiational cooling. Low temps will drop into the 40s and 50s most
areas. Temps will warm up to above normal levels Tuesday thru the
end of the week as H85 temps warm under the ridge.






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