Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
000
FXUS64 KMAF 151709
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
A cold front is moving through southwest Texas tonight bringing
gusty northeasterly winds and colder temperatures. Current satellite
is also showing scattered lower clouds developing in the southern
Permian Basin and these clouds are expected to increase in coverage
later this morning, blanketing much of the area east of the Davis
Mountains. Scattered showers are also expected to develop though
rainfall amounts are generally expected to be light. A few
convective cells may produce a decent amount of rainfall but this
will be sporadic in nature. Clouds and precipitation will keep the
diurnal variation low today so afternoon highs will stay in the 50s
where clouds hang on and will only rise into the 60s to the 80s in
the cloud-free Big Bend.
An upper low, stationary over the Desert Southwest, will keep the
mid and upper levels under a southwesterly flow and weak lift
causing clouds hang in tonight and allowing temps to only drop into
the 40s. The rain takes a break later this afternoon into this
evening before increasing again after midnight as a shortwave trough
ejects east ahead of the low over the CWA. Rainfall amounts are
again not expected to be substantial due to weak lift and a lack of
deep layer moisture. This time of year we will take what we can get
and we`ll have to settle on one to two tenths of an inch of rain in
the short term with perhaps more in the extended as well. Saturday
will be cloudy keeping temps below normal with highs in the 50s in
the PB and increasing towards the south and west.
Hennig
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
As a welcome surprise to everyone, a rainy weather pattern is in
store for the region through much of the period. The precursors to
this pattern begin in the short-term period, but help set the stage
for the beginning of the long-term period. A cold front is moving
through the region today, Friday, and will become stalled along the
higher elevations of the Davis and Glass Mountains over the coming
days. As this stalled cold front remains over the area, a large
upper-level low is nearly stationary over the Desert Southwest. This
keeps southwesterly, moist, mid-level flow over the area and
provides repeated shortwave troughs within this flow. These repeated
troughs provide isentropic ascent over the stalled cold front,
allowing for nearly daily shower and thunderstorm activity for much
of the region. The main corridor of rainfall is expected to occur
from near Carlsbad to Midland to Big Lake as these locations remain
nearest the stalled cold front that remains the main focus of shower
and thunderstorm initiation. The other by product of this pattern
are mostly cloudy skies and relatively low heights leading to a
prolonged stretch of below normal temperatures. Temperatures are
anticipated to hold steady in the upper 50s and lower 60s for areas
north and east of the mountains with temperatures holding largely in
the 70s and 80s to the south and west each afternoon.
Things begin to slowly change by the middle of the next week. The
nearly omni-present upper-level low over the Desert Southwest begins
to weaken, open, and slide east. This finally allows for lee
troughing to return to the southern Great Plains and skies to become
more partly cloudy. This results in two distinct changes, one being
increasing temperatures and the second being decreasing rainfall
chances. With more sun in the forecast and southerly return flow
returning to the region, temperatures are allowed to climb back into
the 70s for much of the area by the middle and end of next week.
With no main focus for shower and thunderstorm development and
weaker disturbances ejecting across the region, overall coverage of
precipitation decreases. There may be pockets of heavier rainfall
with any convection, but rainfall chances largely become the story
of the haves vs. have nots. Regardless of this reality, consistent
rainfall in the forecast is very much appreciated. Despite overall
amounts remaining mostly between 0.25" and 0.75" for most through
the period, this little bit should help green-up early spring growth
and keep any fire weather at bay for now. I am, for one, very happy
to have rainfall to talk about during the period!
-Chehak
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Cigs should improve to either MVFR or VFR by sundown, but begin
deteriorating overnight as a second round of convection devlops
and moves through the area late. Latest NBM/CAMs take
cigs/visibility down to IFR/LIFR by the end of the forecast
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 54 46 54 46 / 80 40 80 40
Carlsbad 49 45 58 46 / 70 60 40 50
Dryden 70 54 68 54 / 30 70 70 70
Fort Stockton 57 50 63 50 / 50 50 70 60
Guadalupe Pass 47 42 56 44 / 30 40 20 40
Hobbs 50 43 56 42 / 70 60 60 60
Marfa 62 41 71 42 / 10 30 20 40
Midland Intl Airport 53 47 55 47 / 70 50 80 60
Odessa 53 47 56 47 / 70 60 80 60
Wink 56 47 61 47 / 60 60 70 60
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44