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000
FXUS64 KMAF 091106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
506 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front currently moving southwest through the northern Permian
Basin. Expecting prevailing to tempo MVFR to IFR conditions behind
this front today. A period of VFR conditions is possible this afternoon
at the terminals before MVFR and or IFR conditions return early
this evening and continuing overnight. Generally northeast winds
of 5 to 15 mph are expected through this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2013/

DISCUSSION...
Another cold front is moving through the area early this morning
bringing a resurgence of very cold air. We are not seeing any
freezing fog so far either ahead of or behind the front, and
despite mostly clear skies and low T/Td depressions, concern is
dropping for a serious freezing fog threat. It is still possible
for some patchy freezing fog to form especially near the leading
edge of the front with the fog threat diminishing farther behind
the front as drier air filters south. The small T/Td depressions
could allow for some ice condensation to occur on exposed surfaces
despite the lack of fog creating slick spots on local roads.
Models have backed off snow chances in SE NM today and tonight
likely due to limited moisture and a very positively tilted weak
upper trough so have removed PoPs.

We then see slightly warmer temps Tuesday and Wednesday before a
weak front arrives Thursday. A more zonal upper air pattern will
limit the amount of cold air. Shortly following this front will be
an upper level low moving out of the southwestern states. This low
will be weakening as it approaches the area and may even be an
open trough by the time it arrives over west Texas, but there
should be enough moisture and instability for precipitation to
develop Thursday. The amount and extent of precipitation will
depend greatly on the strength of the upper low...the stronger the
low the more likely it is the precip will spread farther west...a
weak low or trough will push moisture and most precip to the
eastern CWA. For now the consensus seems to be that it will be an
open trough and thus will keep precip chances to the eastern
counties. Temperatures at this time indicate the p-type would be
rain so there may not be any travel worries this time. Friday gets
warmer before yet another front arrives Saturday.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 29  18  43  25  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              28  18  44  26  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                42  25  48  27  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  27  49  30  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           45  22  50  29  /   0  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  22  44  28  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  17  45  24  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   53  22  50  26  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    32  18  44  25  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  32  19  45  26  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    39  22  47  25  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10