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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231107
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today at all southeast New Mexico and
West Texas TAF sites.  A 50kt low level jet over the Permian Basin
will move off to the northeast by around 23/14Z, but gusty southerly
surface winds will persist through the morning due to a fairly tight
surface pressure gradient.  Low level winds will veer to the
southwest with a dryline pushing east across the region.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline this
afternoon, but think these will stay mainly to the east of KFST and
KMAF.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  57  82  57  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  57  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  55  84  49  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  63  93  63  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  87  61  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  78  55  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  54  80  53  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  78  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  59  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  60  85  59  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  87  59  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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