Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191524
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
924 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in strong westerly sfc
flow, gusty during the afternoon hours. A few high clouds are
anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. West winds will gust near 30
kts 18-00Z then diminish later tonight.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the windy conditions
expected for the next several days, particularly across the
Guadalupe Mountains...

A stubborn upper low, that has been rotating just north of
the area the last couple days, will finally lift northeast today
with shortwave ridging filling in behind it. Meanwhile, a lee
surface trough will deepen over the TX Panhandle, inducing gusty
west winds today. High winds have already been reported overnight
across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and should continue to
increase through mid afternoon with gusts up to 70 MPH possible. In
addition, high winds are expected to spread to the higher elevations
of the Davis Mountains where gusts up to 60 MPH is possible.
Currently, a High Wind Warning is in affect for these areas through
Friday morning however the Guadalupe Mountains look to maintain high
winds beyond tonight and this warning may need to be extended in
future forecast packages for this location. A Wind Advisory is also
in affect across the Van Horn/Hwy 54 Corridor region for today
however a few locations in the higher elevations of the Delaware
Mountains could reach high wind for a brief period. Elsewhere, west
winds will increase to near 20-25 MPH with gusts near 35 to 40
MPH possible. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue today
with highs warming well into the 60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another windy day as an upper trough quickly passes
to the north. Strong westerly winds on the southern edge of the
system will mix down, enhancing surface winds through the day. As
this system lifts NE into the Central Plains Friday night, another
upper trough will quickly follow, approaching the region Saturday
and yes, bringing more wind! Its position will be farther south than
the previous system, spreading gusty west winds across all areas.
Rain chances remain for Saturday however rainfall amounts could be
very light but temperatures will be slightly cooler. This system
will shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the
area however temperatures will be similar to Saturday with highs
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain elevated
through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short break
through Monday as upper ridging briefly takes over. Monday looks
like it could be a rather warm day so started trending high
temperatures warmer. Then, surprise, gusty west winds return
Tuesday as yet another upper trough swings through the Desert SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  41  62  42 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         73  44  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  69  43  70  45 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  36  51  37 /   0   0  10  40
Hobbs                          64  38  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          61  31  61  33 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  43  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         66  42  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           67  39  65  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/80/44



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