Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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391
FXUS64 KMAF 221739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1139 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions through the period. Winds become more
southwesterly this afternoon around 10kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The warmest day of the week is expected today with west, downsloping
winds and sunny skies persisting. Westerly flow aloft developing
overhead will advect an 850mb thermal ridge into the region and high
temperatures are expect to warm in to the mid-upper 80s most
locations this afternoon. Meanwhile, a lee surface trough will
develop ahead of the next upper trough swinging through the western
ConUS today. The surface low will continue to strengthen through
Thursday as the upper trough moves east into the Central Plains,
increasing westerly winds across much of the CWA. Confidence is high
that Guadalupe Mountains will see high winds Thursday and likely
overnight into Friday morning as the upper speed max associated with
the upper trough rotates overhead. Winds across SE NM and south
through the Davis Mountains will likely reach advisory criteria (30
mph sustained) through Thursday evening. Very dry conditions are
expected today and tomorrow and could cause some problems for fire
weather. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more
details.

Will get a cool down Friday as a Pacific front moves through then
another surge of cooler air Saturday with the passage of a cold
front, returning high temperatures to the 60s. This will be short-
lived with the return of south winds by Sunday and high temperatures
will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s through the beginning of next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...
It will be dry across the area today, but winds greater than 20 mph
will only be seen in the Guadalupe Mountains where a Red Flag
Warning is in effect. Critical fire weather conditions will spread
across most of the area tomorrow as an upper trough moves into the
southern Rockies. Strong winds are expected in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains and very windy conditions will spread east into the
adjacent plains and combined with minimum afternoon humidities
dropping below 10 percent will lead to very critical fire weather
conditions. Upgraded the Thursday watch to a warning and expanded it
eastward to include all of our eastern counties. Conditions will be
more marginal in the eastern Permian Basin with lighter winds and
humidities closer to 15 percent but felt it best to go ahead and
include those counties. A cold front will arrive Friday decreasing
the fire weather threat some, but very low dewpoints will offset the
cooler temperatures some and critical fire weather conditions will
again be possible mainly in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, as
well as the adjacent plains in southeastern New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  51  86  41 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       87  50  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  52  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  89  55  88  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  49  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          83  47  77  35 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          82  41  78  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           87  51  85  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         87  51  85  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           88  47  84  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM
     MST/ Thursday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$



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