427
FXUS63 KSGF 020539
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Residual flooding continues from heavy rain yesterday.

- Patchy areas of dense fog tonight.

- Warm and muggy summer-like pattern Sunday into midweek with
  daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- A pattern change for the latter portion of the week looks to
  bring drier conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show westerly flow across most of the
area west of the Mississippi river with a couple of embedded
shortwaves. The first was currently pushing through eastern
Missouri with another over Minnesota. Another shortwave was
shifting east across Nevada. At the surface, a cold front was
shifting east of the area with scattered showers ahead of the
front over eastern Missouri into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
High pressure was moving into the area behind the front.
Extensive cloud cover was over the area and was keeping
temperatures cooler today. Readings wherein the low to mid 70s
with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

Ongoing flooding: There were areas of significant precipitation
over south central Missouri in the 4 to 7 inch range which had
brought river levels into flooding with some areas into moderate
to significant flooding. Several low water crossings remain
flooded with road closures. Areal flood warnings and river flood
warnings continue into this evening.

Tonight: Dry conditions are expected tonight with surface high
pressure over the area. The clouds will diminish this evening
with a light and variable wind which may lead to some fog
development. The most favorable areas for lower visibilities
overnight look to be from around Branson up to the Lake of the
Ozarks and Rolla. We have some visibility dropping down to
around a mile, however patchy areas of dense fog will be
possible. Lows tonight should dip into the upper 50s in south
central Missouri and the low to mid 60s over western Missouri
and southeast Kansas.

Sunday: Some showers and thunderstorms may work into western
Missouri and southeast Kansas on Sunday morning in a decaying
phase from convection in the plains tonight. Some redevelopment
will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours with
mainly scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Severe
weather is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Daily showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the
first half of the upcoming work week. Some showers and
thunderstorms will be moving into western portions of the area
Monday morning from the northwest from convection that develops
in the plains on Sunday. Upper level shortwave energy and a good
fetch of Gulf moisture with PW values in the 1.3 to 1.6" range
during the first part of the week will lend to the potential of
additional heavy rain and a marginal risk of excessive rain on
Monday. In addition to the heavy rain risk, there is also a
chance for some of the stronger storms to produce a marginal
risk of severe weather(level 1 of 5) with hail to the size of
quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

The main shortwave will push through on Wednesday, with some
drying occurring behind the front with a pattern change to a
more northwesterly flow over the area late in the week. This
will bring better chances for dry conditions from late Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Expecting some light fog to develop, perhaps into MVFR by
sunrise at the TAF sites. Widespread dense fog is not expected
at this time. This will erode after sunrise with VFR conditions
then expected for the remainder of the TAF period. There is less
than a 20 percent chance for a thunderstorm at JLN late this
morning and afternoon however confidence is too low to include
at this time. Winds will remain light and variable with a turn
to the southeast during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield