Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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752 FXUS65 KABQ 261200 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 600 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Winds will trend down through early week, while temperatures rise above normal areawide by Tuesday. The Albuquerque Sunport is forecast to hit 90 degrees for the first time this year on Tuesday, which is within a day of the climatological average. Moisture will move into the eastern plains from the east on Tuesday and will fuel a few strong to severe storms going into early Tuesday evening. Outflow from those storms will likely create gusty east canyon winds into the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday night. Chances for storms will continue across much of northeast NM and the eastern plains from Tuesday through the end of the work week, while western NM remains hot and dry. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 A mellower weather pattern will take shape today as the flow aloft continues to weaken in the wake of an upper level trough that crossed on Saturday. Gusty conditions are forecast to linger from northwest to east central areas today, except for windy conditions with gusts up to 45 mph around Clines Corners this morning. Will extend the Air Quality Advisor through this morning for Bonito Lake, Alto, Ruidoso, Ruidoso Downs, and Hollywood, where northwest flow is forecast by the HRRR and Blue Sky Models to carry smoke from the Blue 2 Fire. The day shift will consider extending the Air Quality Advisory through the afternoon and evening, and also consider expanding it eastward down Highway 70 to the Roswell and Hagerman area. Meanwhile, models agree less on how thick and how far smoke from the Indios Fire near Gallinas Peak will spread this afternoon with the HRRR being most aggressive. Given the persistently gusty northwest flow that is forecast for today, there is a good chance that the smoke plume will be noted aloft as far southeast as Espanola, Las Vegas, and Tucumcari by late this afternoon and evening. A backdoor front sagging southward through the eastern plains may then spread some of this smoke southward over the Fort Sumner, Clovis, and Portales area during the late night hours. High temperatures this afternoon should vary from a few to around 7 degrees below 1991-2020 averages over central and western areas, and as much as 5 degrees above the averages on the eastern plains. A ridge of high pressure will then build over the forecast area on Monday allowing high temperatures to climb a few to around 7 degrees over today`s readings. In addition, winds will continue to weaken while shifting out of the southwest most places. Smoke plumes should be less vigorously developed on Monday, but they may extend eastward during the afternoon and evening enough to impact Espanola, Taos, Mora, and the Route 70 corridor from Ruidoso through Chaves County, as well as southern Roosevelt County. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Chances for virga and strong/erratic wind gusts will continue into Monday evening across far northeast NM near the CO border before the loss of daytime heating. An upper level ridge will continue to pump up over the region Tuesday bringing even warmer temperatures, with the Albuquerque Sunport forecast to hit 90 degrees for the first time this year. This first 90 degree day for Albuquerque would be one day later than the climatological mean. A weak backdoor front aided by convective outflow will push west into the eastern plains Monday evening to near the central mountain chain by Tuesday morning, bringing sufficient low level moisture to fuel a round of late day storms across the eastern plains with the best chances closer to the OK and TX borders. The NAM is advertising impressive instability and shear Tuesday afternoon, so don`t be surprised to see a storm or two become severe and produce large hail and/or damaging winds. Convective outflow will result in a gusty east canyon wind into the RGV Tuesday night, bringing low level moisture west to near the Continental Divide. However, the moisture layer will be very shallow and is forecast to mix-out Wednesday with a dryline sharpening up east of the central mountain chain, where another round of strong to severe storms is possible. An upper level trough moving east from the Pacific NW to the northern/central Rockies will steer slightly stronger winds aloft across the southern Rockies and northern NM Thu/Fri, providing increased shear and the continued potential for strong to severe storms given sufficient low level moisture sloshing back to the west each night followed by a resharpening of the dryline. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 As the flow aloft gradually weakens, low level wind shear is forecast to continue for a few more hours early this morning along and just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, including KAXX, KRTN, and KLVS. West and northwest winds will be gusty today, especially over northern and eastern areas, but not nearly as strong as Saturday`s winds in most locations. Smoke will billow again this afternoon with well-developed plumes stretching southeastward through the evening from the Indios Fire on the western edge of the Chama River Canyon Wilderness and Blue 2 Fire in the northern Sacramento Mountains. Smoke is likely to impact ceilings and visibilities at KSRR and KROW, and potentially also (with less confidence) KLVS and KTCC. See the HRRR Model`s Vertically Integrated Smoke Loop (all of the smoke in a vertical column, including smoke high in the atmosphere) here: https://shorturl.at/F2AU. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 West and northwest winds will be significantly weaker today, but it will still be very dry. Winds should weaken enough by afternoon to cancel the Fire Weather Watch that was in effect for the Central Highlands. Locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected for several hours around Clines Corners, and only for an hour or two further east around Santa Rosa. The weather pattern will shift during the first half of the coming week as a couple backdoor fronts and some southeasterly return flow bring higher humidities mainly to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, northeast and far east central areas. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms in these areas Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons and evenings, but wetting footprints will be small along the western edge of the moisture with a risk of new fire starts from dry thunderstorms producing dry microbursts in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. With an upper level trough passing north of New Mexico, some of this moisture will probably scour eastward in afternoon mixing Friday and Saturday only to slosh back westward across northeast and far east central areas during the overnight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 77 45 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 75 34 80 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 72 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 77 39 83 39 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 72 42 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 78 40 83 41 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 42 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 51 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 75 45 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 83 39 86 40 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 86 54 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 69 36 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 73 50 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 74 48 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 43 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 65 36 70 38 / 0 0 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 67 32 72 33 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 75 37 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 72 42 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 81 45 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 76 50 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 79 47 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 83 53 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 85 52 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 54 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 85 48 89 50 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 83 53 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 85 48 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 84 53 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 85 49 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 78 53 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 83 53 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 90 54 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 73 52 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 77 51 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 77 45 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 41 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 74 45 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 77 47 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 77 47 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 83 54 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 75 51 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 74 43 76 46 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 79 43 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 80 44 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 77 44 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 81 50 83 53 / 0 0 0 10 Roy............................. 80 48 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 88 52 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 84 51 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 89 50 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 90 55 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 91 53 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 88 52 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 95 59 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 86 55 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 85 53 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44