060
FXUS64 KTSA 071740
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1140 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

 - Below normal temperatures through Monday, with extensive cloud
   cover ending during the day Monday.

 - Above average temperatures expected Tuesday to Thursday before another
   cold front brings very cold air for the weekend.

 - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Cool northerly flow is present across the area behind a cold front
that passed through this morning. Winds are gusting to 20-30 mph.
Between the cold advection and widespread cloud cover, temperatures
will mostly be flat through the afternoon, then quickly drop this
evening and overnight. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out for
southeast OK today but measurable rain is not expected.

With low clouds holding on for many areas tonight, lows will not be
as chilly as they otherwise might be. Most locations will fall into
the mid to upper 20s. The most likely location for clouds to clear
will be the western portions of Osage/Pawnee counties where lows may
be a bit lower.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The upper level trough will quickly move east Monday with the
surface high passing through the region. This will mean winds
will be much lighter. Skies are expected to clear during the day
Monday with highs reaching the mid 40s. Upper level ridging nudges
into the area Tuesday with warm southwesterly flow boosting max
temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s. A weak dry cold front
will knock temperatures down a couple of degrees Wednesday, but
otherwise the same pattern continues through Thursday. It`s worth
mentioning that the NAM (and other models that do well with low
level cold air) do show the potential for some areas of low clouds
during this period, so there is at least some possibility that we
do not warm up as much as is currently expected.

A potent upper level trough will descend from Canada into the
eastern US this Friday to Saturday. Although any dynamical forcing
will be well removed, the deep cold air will move south into the
forecast area at the surface. Most guidance is in good agreement on
this outcome, with the main uncertainties related to the depth and
timing of the cold air. With that said, this will likely be close
to if not the coldest airmass of the season so far. High
temperatures in the north may struggle to get much above freezing.
However, given the trajectory of the upper level trough,
precipitation is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

MVFR cigs are expected to continue through the day and into the
night tonight across all sites. The clearing line looks to approach
E OK sites tonight, but is forecast to stall just west of all
terminals. KMLC and KFSM will likely also be on the fringes of MVFR
cigs all night, but will maintain all MVFR conditions through the
night for now for those sites. Some light drizzle or mist can`t be
ruled out through the rest of today across NW AR and SE OK, but
confidence is too low to mention currently. Cigs could lower to IFR
conditions across NW AR sites tonight. Breezy northerly winds will
also continue this afternoon, before becoming light overnight
tonight. Clouds should finally break and clear out during the day
Monday from west to east.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  46  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   30  48  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   27  50  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   25  45  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   28  45  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   29  43  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   28  46  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   26  44  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
F10   25  48  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  50  31  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04