580
FXUS64 KTSA 181715
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1115 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

  - Well above normal temperatures today (Tuesday) and Wednesday.

  - Unsettled pattern begins Wednesday with increasing shower and thunderstorm
    chances Wednesday evening through Thursday night. A few
    stronger storms possible Wednesday night through Thursday
    afternoon.

  - Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normal
    this weekend and into early next week.

  - Increasing rain chances again early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A weak cold front currently moving through eastern Oklahoma will
continue to sag southward through the afternoon hours before
stalling near the Red River this evening. A shift to northwesterly
winds will usher in a somewhat drier airmass and slightly cooler
temperatures tonight. Temperatures will remain rather warm and humid
for mid November ahead of the boundary, with highs in the mid 80s
along and south of I-40 this afternoon, while temps will remain in
the 70s behind the boundary across northeast Oklahoma this
afternoon. Cooler overnight lows in the 40s(north) to mid 50s
(south) will be experienced tonight with the drier air in place and
a weak surface ridge axis overhead.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

An unsettled middle part of the work week is in store across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A slow moving upper low will progress
eastward from Southern California and into the SOuthern Plains from
Wednesday into Thursday. The result will be increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances beginning Wednesday afternoon across southeast
Oklahoma and spreading over the whole area by Wednesday night into
Thursday. Widespread rains are expected through the day Thursday,
with scattered thunderstorms possible as the upper system moves
closer to the region. Strong deep layer shear and modest instability
noted on forecast soundings indicate that a few strong to marginally
severe storms could be possible from Wednesday night through
Thursday afternoon. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a
few stronger cells could produce some hail or strong wind gusts,
especially across portions of southeast Oklahoma where a pseudo warm
front looks to reside. The bigger threat still looks to be locally
heavy rainfall with widespread storm totals of 1-3 inches expected,
and locally higher totals possible where more thunderstorms develop.
Flooding is not expected to be a real big threat as most of the area
has been in a dry period for the last month, but some local flooding
of small creeks and streams, or urban areas will be possible where
heavier rain rates occur.

Precip starts to move out Thursday night into Friday as a cold front
pushes through the region by Friday evening. This will dry things
out for a few days and allow temperatures to cool back to nearer
seasonal normals, though still slightly on the warm side of things.
Additional rain chances return early next week as another system
tracks across the Southwest CONUS and lifts over the Southern Plains
through mid week. Storm chances appear to be less with this system,
though locally heavy rainfall could once again be a concern as
relatively high moisture content remains in the vicinity. Cloud
cover and rain chances will keep afternoon temperatures near normal
early next week as well, while overnight lows generally remain well
above normal with the higher dewpoint airmass around.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR condition will be the primary flight level through this
forecast period. Brief and transient exceptions will be ongoing
MVFR ceilings across NW AR with the frontal passage. Also patchy
fog is possible toward sunrise across far NW AR with uncertainty
on coverage due to increasing high cloud cover. Also expect low
clouds to spread into SE OK and toward KMLC after sunrise
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  72  60  69 /   0  10  60  90
FSM   54  77  61  72 /   0  10  60  90
MLC   53  79  64  73 /   0  20  60  90
BVO   41  69  54  68 /   0  10  60  80
FYV   47  74  59  69 /   0  10  60  90
BYV   47  70  58  67 /   0   0  60  80
MKO   50  76  61  69 /   0  10  60  90
MIO   45  69  57  67 /   0   0  70  80
F10   49  76  61  70 /   0  20  60  90
HHW   59  80  64  72 /   0  20  60  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07