350
FXUS64 KTSA 210449
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1049 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

  - Predominantly dry conditions expected Friday as most
    precipitation exits to the east, but isolated showers remain
    possible during the afternoon across northwest Arkansas.

  - Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal
    normals this weekend.

  - Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late weekend into
    early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Widespread showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms were ongoing
across the forecast area as of late Thursday evening. Precipitation
will gradually shift east through the overnight hours, with PoPs
becoming increasingly confined to northwest Arkansas Friday
morning. Outside of the ongoing shower activity, patchy drizzle
and/ or light fog may develop during the overnight/ early morning
hours given the very saturated airmass.

A cold front is dragged through the forecast area today as the mid-
upper level wave begins to depart. Still, high temperatures max
out around 70 degrees across NE OK and NW AR, and in the mid-upper
70s across SE OK and W-Central AR. WNW winds will pick up
slightly behind the front today, but should generally remain
within 10 to 20 mph. A couple of showers remain possible in NW AR
this afternoon as the upper level disturbance passes just to the
north, but overall, dry conditions are forecast for much of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Cooler and dry conditions are likely Saturday and early Sunday while
shortwave ridging builds over the region. Another storm system
arrives late Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain chances to
E OK & NW AR. Guidance has trended quicker and further north with
this system, reducing the heavy rain/ flooding threat. Still, expect
1-2 inches of rainfall (locally up to 3") within the heaviest
axis... currently aligned across SE OK and W-Central AR. Instability
continues to appear on the weaker side, but thunderstorms including
a couple of strong storms, cannot be ruled out Sunday night, mainly
in SE OK. Rain chances exit the region by late Monday. A couple of
cold fronts push into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing
colder temperatures to the FA through the end of the week (Highs in
the 50s and lows in the 20s/ 30s). Dry weather is expected through
at least Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Moderate/heavy rain shield continues to shift eastward into AR
and MO. Lightning has been very scarce due to instability
remaining very limited, with the best instability south and east
of the forecast area. MVFR, with periodic IFR, conditions will
prevail at most TAF sites by the start of the forecast period.
Most of the rainfall will generally end just after midnight
tonight, though there will still be periods of showers, especially
across parts of NE OK and far NW AR beyond midnight and through
mid-morning Friday. Improvements to ceilings and visibilities will
come around mid-late Friday morning and into the afternoon.
However, a frontal boundary will cause winds to turn W/NW late in
the afternoon and into the evening and MVFR ceilings may return,
though coverage and duration is uncertain at this time.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  60  71  47 /  80  90   0   0
FSM   72  62  76  52 /  90 100  10   0
MLC   73  60  75  48 /  80 100   0   0
BVO   67  55  70  43 /  80  90   0   0
FYV   69  59  72  48 /  90  80  20  10
BYV   67  59  71  49 /  90  90  30   0
MKO   70  60  73  48 /  80  90  10   0
MIO   67  60  70  46 /  80  90  20  10
F10   70  58  73  47 /  70  90   0   0
HHW   73  61  75  48 /  80  90  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67