030
FXUS63 KIWX 261902
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
202 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong west winds gusting 40-50 mph through early this evening.

- Blustery and cold on Thanksgiving with gusts to 35 mph.

- Lake effect snow expected through early Friday, heaviest
  across southwest Michigan where highly variable snow
  accumulations of 2 to 6 inches will be possible by Thursday
  night.

- A period of accumulating wet snow expected Saturday afternoon
  into Saturday night, best chances (80%) north of US 24.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Strong low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes will
occlude east into southwest Quebec by Thanksgiving day. Tight low
level height gradient on its southern and eventually southwest flank
will keep strong westerly winds and brisk wind chills as the primary
weather story into tonight and Thanksgiving day. Gusts in the 40-50
mph range today will ease a bit into tonight and Thursday (gusts to
35 mph) as the storm system begins to pull away. Wind chills drop
into the teens to near 20 degrees otherwise.

Good moisture flux within cold, cyclonic westerly flow will also
result in periods of lake effect snow through at least Thursday
night, mainly along and north of the Indiana Toll Road. Expectations
are for better flake size and snowfall rates this evening as
synoptic scale moisture continues to pivot through the lower Great
Lakes. Slight veering to cloud bearing winds is expected later
tonight through Thursday night which could bring some minor accums
and travel impacts farther south into places like South Bend,
Elkhart, Angola and Coldwater. By this time, a turbulent cloud layer
and strong flow will trend to disrupt the snow growth process
shattering larger snowflakes and keeping snow ratios in check. This
likely limits snow accums, however smaller flakes and gusty winds
probably result in times of poor visibility and patchy blowing snow.
Made no changes to headlines (retained WW.Y in southwest MI), but
following shifts will need to monitor surrounding counties for a low
end WW.Y or SPS. LES then winds down quickly on Friday as cyclonic
flow breaks down and weak ridging briefly settles in

Attention this weekend then turns to a potential period of
accumulating wet snow as strong moist/warm advection develops in
advance of the next upper trough digging into the Central Plains on
Saturday, then making the turn east-northeast into the lower Great
Lakes by early Sunday morning. Warm advection under incoming mid
level dcva and upper divergence will drive this blossoming area of
precipitation from west to east Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night with most places beginning as snow. A surface low track west
or over the area would seem to favor a mix or changeover with
drizzle/rain Saturday night into Sunday morning, best chances along
and southeast of the US 24 corridor. Latest GEFS and ECS guidance
rather impressive with 80-90% of members having 3" or more of
snow accumulation (10:1 ratio) north of US 24. This along with
some aggressive solutions (see the more dynamic and juiced 12z
Op ECMWF) brings increasing confidence in a headline level event
for at least portions of the area. However, this system is
still 3 days away and off the Pacific Northwest coast, so expect
adjustments to the finer details in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Main impacts to both sites remains the gusty winds, which will
slowly subside this evening. Outside of the winds, some
flurries/light snow has been occuring at both sites periodically
today as a trough pushes through the area. Any precip should end
at KFWA over the next couple of hours. At KSBN, winds will shift
to more from the west with lake effect snow showers possibly
moving into the airport to bring some reduced vsbys. It is
possible the bulk of this activity remains just north of the
airport, but for now have continued a tempo group (some time
adjustments) and defer any additional changes.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
     116-203-204-216.
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ078>081-177-
     277.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ078-079-
     177-277.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-046.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher