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000
FXUS63 KBIS 162027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
REGION KEEPING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL
THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONED TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT LEFT IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...ENOUGH FOR 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS ACROSS THE VALLEY
MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT 50 TO 55. HIGHS MONDAY UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM SUN JUN 16 2013

NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED WITH A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY ESTABLISHING
ITSELF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A POTENTIAL SHIFT OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD YIELD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE FORECAST TRANSITION TO FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY...SEVERE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS GULF MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS...ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. AT 3 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE TSRA WILL
BE ISOLATED...LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AND JUST MENTIONED VCSH. CLOUDS
FROM REGINA TO ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN CURRENTLY SHOWING UP AROUND
2000 AGL...SO TRACKED MVFR CEILINGS TO KMOT THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM KMOT-KJMS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
FROM KISN-KDIK-KBIS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA