Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210836

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
336 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Showers and thunderstorms, breezy winds, and warm temperatures
will characterize the short term.

A cold front will sweep through the region today. Ahead of the
front showers and thunderstorms may develop across northern North
Dakota and the James Valley. As the front pushes through by early
afternoon winds will increase to around 30 mph and shift out of
the west. Because westerly mixing winds are downsloping winds they
will combine with compressional warming to increase temperatures
into the 80s across most of the area...with even some low 90s
possible across the south.

Because return flow has just recently kicked in moisture return
has been limited. This will keep most of western North Dakota dry.
As the front pushes eastward and the moisture catches up more
widespread precipitation is expected. Thankfully, by the time
there is enough moisture and instability to be concerned about
severe storms the front should be well out of western and central
North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Much cooler, below-normal temperatures are expected late this week
and into the weekend.

The drier trend in models for this weekend seems to continue.
Thus, only a chance of showers appears possible this weekend.
With cool temperatures and minimal moisture instability will be low
and thus the probability for thunderstorms is low. Our confidence
remains high in temperatures only staying in the 60s during the
day Friday and Saturday, and temperatures falling into the 40s


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east
overnight. Due to the scattered nature of storms left any mention
out with the exception of KMOT and KJMS where there is more likely
to be wider spread precipitation.




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