Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 252003
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
303 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Thunderstorm chances on Friday highlight the short term forecast.

A upper level trough from Montana through Nevada this afternoon
is forecast to propagate into the Northern Plains on Friday.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase across western and central
North Dakota Friday afternoon and into the evening, decreasing
from west to east Friday night into Saturday morning. Given
marginal moisture return, severe weather is not expected. The
best chances for thunderstorms with this system are focused
across the far south central and James River Valley per agreement
on the 12 through 15 UTC global and high resolution suites.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Moderating temperatures back to normal values in the 80s Sunday
into next week highlight the extended forecast.

A slowly amplifying, broad upper central CONUS ridge is favored
on the 12 UTC global and ensemble suites Sunday into next week.
This favors the return to normal highs into the 80s across western
and central North Dakota. While, ridge running impulses will
undoubtedly be embedded in the flow to support marginal
thunderstorm chances, their predictability is low at these time
ranges.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

VFR cumulus and stratocumulus are expected across western and
central North Dakota through sunset. VFR conditions thereafter for
the 18 UTC TAF cycle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
increase across the area Friday afternoon through the evening.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



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