Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 010900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

DENSE FOG AND SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
HAMPER VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND KMOT AND
KISN. EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES DURING THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMOT...WHERE VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH


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