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000
FXUS63 KBIS 242045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
245 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ALL SNOW BEING REPORTED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS GENERATING A NARROW PATCH OF FREEZING RAIN
PRIMARILY OVER JAMESTOWN. AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS NOSES SOUTH...THE
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO
ALL SNOW OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO STEELE TO ELLENDALE.
AREAS WEST OF SAID LINE SHOULD RECEIVE LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL GENERATE DRY AND WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S EAST TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND EVENTUALLY CENTER
ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY. WITH PREDOMINATELY WEST WINDS THIS SETUP
WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ZONAL FLOW SHOULD THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER 40S ARE LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
50S LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE WEEKEND ARCTIC AIR MAY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL LINGER OVER KMOT-KBIS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER KMOT-KBIS-KJMS. PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM