Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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949
FXUS63 KBIS 200252
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
952 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

The severe thunderstorm watch for Rolette, Pierce, and McHenry
counties has been coordinated with SPC and cancelled. Updates
to the text products forthcoming.

Attention turns to the thunderstorms in eastern Montana. A special
weather statement issued for far southwest ND. Baker, Montana had
a peak gust to 49 mph. The HRRR is advertising the showers/thunderstorms
in northeast Montana will ride into northern ND overnight and into
the Turtle Mountains between 7z-10z Weds. Have trended pops in
this direction.

UPDATE Issued at 831 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

have allowed the heat advisory to expire at 8pm cdt. And now have
issued the next heat advisory for Wednesday for all but the far west
and far north, as heat indices will range between 100 and 106 degrees.

Severe thunderstorm watch for our northeast continues until 11 pm
cdt Tuesday. Continuing to monitor outflows and possible severe
thunderstorm initiation. Also watching another line of thunderstorms
edging close to our western border from eastern Montana. These
will need monitoring as well over the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

After collaboration with spc, we have decided to issue a severe
thunderstorm watch until 11 pm cdt Tuesday for Rolette, Pierce,
and McHenry counties. Updates forthcoming.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Severe convective potential and dangerous heat highlight the short
term forecast.

For this afternoon, a high instability/weak forcing potential
severe convective scenario will continue to be monitored across
much of western and central North Dakota. The vast majority of the
12-18 UTC CAM guidance suggest the remainder of the afternoon and
evening will be free of convection. However, each run of the HRRR
through the day continues to suggest convective development this
afternoon and evening in the vicinity of a warm front that is
becoming increasingly more diffuse between ND Highway 200 and
I-94. While these solutions are likely overdone in coverage, the
HRRR of all the CAMs has a relatively better handle on the
convection thus far today. The HRRRX has seen its iterations
oscillate between dry and developing isolated strong to severe
convection. Another area of possible initiation is across the
northwest and far north central where some cumulus has begun to
develop along a boundary noted on the regional radar mosaic across
Burke and Renville counties. In regards to upper level forcing, it
is and will remain weak. Small impulses across northwest South
Dakota this afternoon will propagate northeast into North Dakota.
However, it is very uncertain whether they may aide in any
convective development. Should a storm develop, a supercell mode
with all threats is possible.

Regarding heat, will leave the Heat Advisory as is for this
evening across central North Dakota. A potential issuance of heat
headlines for tomorrow southwest and central is likely later this
evening or tonight given high confidence for heat index values of
100-105. However, to avoid headline confusion, will keep the heat
headlines focused only on those areas expected to be impacted the
rest of the day.

Finally, SPC does have the north central in a slight risk for
Wednesday, with a marginal elsewhere. Once again, high instability
will be in place northwest and central. The most likely scenario
is for possible post-frontal convection to develop as a cold front
moves from northwest to southeast late Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Thunderstorm potential Friday with cooler temperatures into the
weekend highlight the extended.

Overall, the 12 UTC suites are in agreement on the broad upper
level ridge across the CONUS flattening Friday into the weekend,
with near zonal flow into next week. This would favor a return to
near normal temperatures. The next best chance for thunderstorms
is Friday into Saturday as a wave possibly coming onshore to the
pacific northwest on Thursday propagates into the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Vfr cigs/vsbys next 24hr. Could be a period of fog and/or low
clouds at KJMS toward 12z Wednesday. A cold front will push east
Wednesday, and will likely generate at least isolated thunderstorms
across western and Central ND. Uncertainty in timing and areal
coverage inhibit any mention in the TAFs at this time.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
Wednesday for NDZ010>013-018>023-025-033>037-041>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
AVIATION...KS



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