Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 180848
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
348 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT...IN THE MID
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS...AND IS ALSO HIGH THAT THEY WILL BE
HIT OR MISS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS
OF HARD RAIN. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY SURFACE HEATING SO
THAT ONCE THE SUN GETS CLOSE TO SETTING WILL EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO BE DECREASING...AND END COMPLETELY BY 9 PM OR SO.

TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS OF THIS WRITING THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KNIFE RIVER NEAR
HAZEN AFFECTING MERCER AND OLIVER COUNTIES. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE APPLE CREEK IN BURLEIGH COUNTY...WITH
MENOKEN BEING THE FORECAST POINT ON THAT CREEK. SEE THOSE PRODUCTS
AND SERVICES ON THE NWS BISMARCK WEB PAGE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS.
CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 CDT MON AUG 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. UPPER FLOW THEN SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FIRST POTENT SHORT WAVE STARTS TO APPROACH
THE AREA...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN REMAINS OVER THE AREA BRINGING CONTINUED OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS
TRIES TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING A DIP DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z/19TH.
WITH THOSE EXPECT POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MODERATE RAIN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JPM





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