Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 130512
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Lowered overnight temperatures a little more as much of the area
has already dropped into the 20s to around 30. Otherwise,
previous forecast remains good.

UPDATE
Issued at 954 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Lowered temperatures a few degrees as a few areas already reached
their forecast mins. Widespread 20s likely overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 707 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Blending hourly weather elements to current observations.
Otherwise no major edits as the forecast remains in good shape
for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

A little breezy with maybe a sprinkle or two north late this
afternoon into the early evening behind the cold front that has
now cleared the James River Valley. Otherwise a quiet night is
expected tonight with surface high pressure and upper level
shortwave ridging traversing the forecast area. We leaned toward
the cooler side of guidance tonight, especially west as winds will
diminish and clouds thin out.

An upper level trough taking shape over the northwest U.S. on
Friday will traverse the forecast area Friday night and Saturday.
Over western and central ND Friday will also be quiet but we will
see increasing clouds from west to east, with maybe a sprinkle
within warm advection across the northern tier counties.
Temperatures will be similar to today over the northwest, but the
southeast CWA will experience a noticeable cooldown.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

The aforementioned upper level trough tracks across the northern
Rockies and northern Plains Friday night through Saturday night.
Stronger 85-70H FG forcing continues along the Canadian Border
through Friday night with generally weak synoptic scale forcing.
Global models are pretty consistent in spreading QPF across
northeast Montana and northwest ND, then into southeast
Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba. A Blend of models depicts
between a tenth and two tenths of QPF in northern portions of the
far northern tier counties of Divide, Burke and Renville. However,
starting out warm, with warm ground temperatures, resulting
snowfall is likely to be a half inch or less. Will need to monitor
for more of a southern shift in the FG forcing as higher snow
amounts are situated just north of the border. Forcing across the
northern tier counties shuts off early Saturday from west to east
and the focus then shifts to the far south central into eastern
ND. FG forcing increases here in the afternoon and is especially
strong over far southeast ND, but remains respectable over the
southern James River Valley. Strong QG forcing swings across this
area during the same timeframe, associated with the upper level
trough. Temperatures here will be too warm for snow, but a wet and
blustery afternoon is anticipated over the far south central into
eastern ND. It`s possible we could see a mix of rain and snow
over the southern James River Valley Saturday evening before the
precipitation ends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

An increase in low/mid level clouds will initiate from west to east
this TAF period as a warm front slides through. Expect southeast to
southerly winds increasing to between 10kt and 15kt this afternoon.
Low level wind shear is forecast at KBIS/KJMS between 03z-06z
Saturday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS



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