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000
FXUS63 KBIS 030122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
722 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

EVENING UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL/SKY COVER TRENDS. ALSO
DELAYED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING. WILL REEVALUATE IN A COUPLE HOURS AS CURRENT WIND
CHILLS ARE MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND CHILL NUMBERS WILL ALSO LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EAST OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GENERATING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN MONTANA BACK
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC COASTAL REGION. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THESE
CLOUDS NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS RETURN FLOW
INCREASES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED EMBEDDED WAVES WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE...THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
FROM ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY SETTING UP AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL
WAVE APPROACHES...SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW AND HIGHEST TOTALS NEAR TWO INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL WAVES. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND SNOW TOTALS TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
WEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES
EAST WHERE THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE EVENING ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND CIGS LOWER. WILL
KEEP A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN PLACE NORTH CENTRAL AND ACROSS THE
JAMES VALLEY TILL 06Z.

MAY NEED ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
RIGHT NOW PROJECTING BORDER LINE WIND CHILL ADV CRITERIA WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AROUND -25F. I AM CONCERNED MY LOWS ARE TOO
COLD GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD ADVECTION AND MY WINDS MAY BE TOO
HIGH GIVEN A WAA REGIME MAINTAIN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WILL LET
THE EVENING CREW REEVALUATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

MAIN WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
ALTERNATING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL
COME MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK/FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES PROJECTED TO SLIDE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY. TIMING OF THESE AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL SOLUTIONS REMAIN A BIT UNCLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE EVERYDAY FOR LIGHT SNOW AT LEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MINIMAL TO NIL SNOW THREAT MONDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
PERHAPS A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...TRENDS IN THE MODELS DO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY TIME EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW SHIFT FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE PASSAGES VIA A WESTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPERATURES TAKE A SMALL DIVE
DOWNWARD AGAIN BEHIND THURSDAYS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN HIGHS FRIDAY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN WED/THU. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TEENS
NORTH...TO AROUND 20 CENTRAL AND MID 20S SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW REMAIN IN THE SOUTH BUT WILL DWINDLE DURING THE DAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BROAD SCALE RIDGING TAKES CONTROL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING TREND. TIMING FOR A
COMPLETELY DRY WEEKEND MAY BE SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE IN THE COMING
DAYS AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ALREADY SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING
ACROSS THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER H85 TEMPS BETWEEN
+4C AND +6C SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS RISING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS
AND LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ND TONIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z MONDAY. HIGHEST INTENSITY SNOW
EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMOT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-022-023-025-037-048.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...KS