Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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485
FXUS63 KBIS 010522
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW
LOCALES WERE NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS SO DROPPED TEMPERATURES IN A FEW
AREAS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
DIURNALLY WITH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

REX BLOCK H500 PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET
WEATHER. THE NORTHERN BRANCH H500 HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE H500 UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA REGION. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
REMNANTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
THE RESULT WILL BE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S WITH
SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE H500 RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA MONDAY. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO OVER-TOP IT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE MORE THAN THE
GFS AND EVEN CLOSES OFF AN H500 LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY...GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION AND AS SUCH IS WARMER. WILL FOLLOW THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER AS A
TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVING OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE H500 RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WEST BUT WITH NORTHERN FLOW ALOFT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST...MORE LIKE MID 50S ACROSS TEH WESTERN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST PUTTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL PROBABLY START
TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LIGHT WINDS....LESS THAN 10KT NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS



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