Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
224 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Convection this afternoon and evening highlights the short term

Just like Saturday, high based convection with strong and deep
unidirectional environmental wind profiles and inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles are supporting effective momentum transfer
and parcel acceleration to the surface with wind gusts in excess
of 40kts being observed with showers and thunderstorms. This will
continue through the early evening central, reinvigorated by a
shortwave that will propagate southeast out of Saskatchewan. With
MUCAPE between 500-1000 j/kg and effective deep layer shear around
25-30kts, small/sub-severe hail is possible, with unidirectional
shear profiles limiting storm organization.

Memorial Day Monday will be similar to Saturday and Sunday under
continued cyclonic flow aloft. This means another windy day with
diurnal convection.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A potential warming trend for mid to late week highlights the
extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on cyclonic flow across
the Northern Plains potentially being replaced by shortwave
ridging by Thursday. This would favor a possible warm up Wednesday
into Friday, with highs in the 80s favored for Thursday.
After Friday, model certainty begins to break down. However, there
is some signal for much needed precipitation on Friday into
Saturday as the upper level ridge begins to break down.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A near copy of Saturday`s weather is expected across western and
central North Dakota today. Strong northwest wind gusts of
30-40kts will develop with scattered afternoon and early evening
showers and thunderstorms. Wind gusts with thunderstorms could
approach 50kts. MVFR stratus is expected to develop across central
North Dakota late tonight into Memorial Day Monday morning. Strong
northwest winds with gusts of 30-35kts are forecast again Monday
with scattered rain showers central in the afternoon.




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