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000
FXUS63 KBIS 130830
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

THE MAIN THEME IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION
FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH TODAY. HYDRO ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL
FOCUS. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
CLEAR SKY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUE FROM MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SCT
MID CLOUDS AND SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CANADA...FROM ALBERTA TO MANITOBA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS
WHAT THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE PORTRAYING...VERTICAL MOTION INDUCED
FROM A 90KT JET STREAK SLIDING OVER A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. NO PRECIPITATION WAS
BEING GENERATED WITH THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT. FULLY EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING
HEIGHTS TAPPING INTO WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...THUS EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE WARM LOW LEVEL LAYER PRIOR
TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL WHERE
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE LONGER TERM WILL BE MILD FOLLOWING THE
H5 TROF PASSAGE FROM THE SHORT TERM AND A BUILDING H5 RIDGE. AFTER
THAT IT COOLS UNDER A FLATTER FLOW WITH MORE TROF PASSAGES...THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR THE LONG TERM NORMALS
ARE...GENERALLY...40 FOR HIGHS AND 20 FOR LOWS...AND FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE.

THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEARS WATCHING AS THE GFS AND EC
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...
WHILE THE EC IS WETTER BUT MORE CONFINED WITH AREAS THAT ARE
IMPACTED. THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA
ARE TARGETS FOR THE EC WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW POSSIBLE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...KMOT/KISN IN THE MORNING BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY...AND BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z THURSDAY FOR
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS. EXPECTING SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

VARIOUS FLOOD HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BASIN AS ICE CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO PROBLEMATIC HIGH WATER ON
MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.

THIS INCLUDES BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...CANNONBALL RIVER...CEDAR
CREEK...HEART RIVER...LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE MISSOURI RIVER
ABOVE LAKE SAKAKAWEA. ELEVATED AND FLUCTUATING WATER LEVELS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CHANNELS BECOME ICE FREE. THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FLOWS AND MOVE THE ICE DOWNSTREAM
SUGGESTS ICE IMPACTS COULD BE PROLONGED INTO THE WEEKEND FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE BISMARCK/MANDAN VICINITY WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LOCAL ICE REMAINS IN THE CHANNEL...WITH
ADDITIONAL ICE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HEART AND KNIFE RIVERS.

RUNOFF IS ALSO LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOURIS AND JAMES BASINS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...AYD/KS