Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250625
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE ND/MN/MANITOBA BORDER WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF NORTH DAKOTA.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE STATE. THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. THERE HAVE BEEN
FLURRIES REPORTED WITH THIS STRATUS FIELD...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH THE MENTION OF FLURRIES.

ATTENTION TURNS TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SCATTERED AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSES MOVING EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXTENDED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EAST TO OAKES. FARTHER WEST A LARGER STORM
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME EMERGES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM FARTHER
SOUTH...AND ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA IS
FORECAST TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE LIGHT SNOW - STILL LOOKING LIKE ONLY
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE BOWMAN AREA.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
AND EAST ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE SO ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...ALREADY CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR ROLLA
AND CROSBY. THESE CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED FLURRIES WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ENCOMPASS MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS MORNING.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO TRIM BACK POPS/WEATHER AND
ADJUST SKY COVER.

CLEAR TO SCATTERED CONDITIONS NORTH WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUTH.
TRIMMED POPS A BIT TO INCLUDE JUST MY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. REMOVED POPS NORTH. LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MORE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NEAR THE ND/SD
BORDER AREA NOW SO LITTLE IF ANY FORCING NORTH OF I94.

STRATUS AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING SOUTH. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE MOVES THE
LOW CLOUDS AND --SHSN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING AFTER 06Z AND
THROUGH MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 10-12Z THURSDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO MATCH THIS THINKING/SCENARIO. SEE NO REASON WHY THE
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT PERSIST DURING THE DAY
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL
SATURATED...SO KEPT SKY COVER ELEVATED THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG
WITH A MENTION OF ISOLD FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING LOW PRESSURE GATHERING WELL SOUTH
OF NORTH DAKOTA...IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. MODEL GENERATED VERTICAL
VELOCITIES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH THE BEST
LIFT GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH DAKOTA / SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST (MARMARTH...BOWMAN AND HETTINGER) WITH SMALLER AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR LESS FARTHER EAST (SELFRIDGE...THROUGH ASHLEY AND
ELLENDALE). THIS LINES UP WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC. WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DISCUSS THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SURFACE
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT HOLIDAY SNOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 20S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

SUNDAY A STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HEIGHT FIELDS DEVELOP BETWEEN THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS RUN BEING SLIGHTLY
COLDER FOR NORTH DAKOTA. REGARDLESS...VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING DANGEROUS LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REACH
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY ALSO BRIEFLY BE REACHED SUNDAY NIGHT IN
COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

NEW YEARS EVE INTO THE NEW YEAR...THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE PROGRESSES
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE REGION. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME FORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL SETUP A STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST (COLDEST) TO SOUTHWEST (WARMEST)
ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

AT 06Z...CEILINGS WERE VFR NORTH AT KISN-KMOT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
KBIS-KDIK-KJMS VFR AT THE MOMENT. A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WAS ENTERING THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...THUS BEGAN KISN/KMOT MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...WITH STRATUS AND ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT
AFTER 06Z FOR KDIK WHERE CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL DROP TO IFR. STRATUS
AND ISOLD -SHSN PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL ARRIVE AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK-KBIS-KJMS AROUND 09Z-11Z. CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN MAINLY IFR-MVFR
WITH STRATUS AND ISOLATED FLURRIES. SCATTERING TO VFR AFT 00Z AT
KISN/KMOT AND AFT 02Z-03Z FOR KDIK/KBIS. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS
REMAINING AT KJMS A BIT LONGER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV






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