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000
FXUS63 KBIS 050332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS