Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 140610
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1210 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Little change with this forecast update. Where skies have cleared
west through portions of the US Highway 83 corridor, the Northern
Lights are visible, and should remain so through the night.
However, some additional clouds will move in from Canada late.

UPDATE Issued at 841 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Temperatures across the northwest have fallen quickly in an area
of clear skies due to the tardiness of upstream cloud cover. Made
adjustments to the clouds and temperatures there as the evening
temperatures have fallen close to 10 below northwest. Expect a non
diurnal temperature trend later tonight resulting in rising
temperatures as clouds upstream arrive and winds become westerly
increasing low level mixing.

UPDATE Issued at 552 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Current Nephanalysis shows stratus forming in a broad low level
warm advection regime over central North Dakota. Light snow is
currently in the far southwest and trending south. The band of
clouds and low level warm advection over central North Dakota
should hold temperatures steady or even rise this evening.

Current forecast looks on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)

Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be a brief
period of `milder` weather tonight into tomorrow, followed by
another Arctic cold frontal passage on Sunday.

Currently, northwest flow remains over the Northern Plains, with
surface high pressure off to our southeast and a weak area of low
pressure just off to our southwest. A weak embedded S/WV moving
southeast over eastern Montana/southwestern North Dakota/western
South Dakota bringing an area of low clouds and light snow to my
southwest counties this afternoon near the sfc low. The low
clouds will move into south central ND momentarily for several
hours tonight as noted via sat imagery and high res boundary layer
RH.

The light snow southwest will be to our south by around 00Z as the
mid level wave continues to track southeast across the Dakotas.
Mid level WAA and a steady westerly wind at 5-15 MPH will keep
temperatures steady to rising west and only cooling slightly over
my east. Cloud cover will also help keep lows overnight (teens
above southwest to near -10 Turtle Mtns) relatively mild compared
to the past couple of mornings which saw widespread -20s and a
handful of -30s.

Strong embedded S/WV will pivot around a large upper level low
near the Hudson Bay, moving south-southeast across the southern
Canadian prairie provinces tonight then across the Northern Plains
on Sunday. This will drive another Arctic cold front through the
region, resulting in gusty northwest winds and falling
temperatures Sunday afternoon. Our daytime highs will likely be
reached in the morning or early aft. Ahead of the wave will
advance a large area of low stratus and light snow showers,
developing across the north 10-14Z, then rapidly moving south
during the daytime. Clearing expected from north to south Sunday
aft/eve as the Arctic surface high starts to build southward into
North Dakota. Do not anticipate headlines for Sunday as any
accumulating snow looks to remain to our west and east and peak
winds within the mixed layer only top out at 30KTs. Also at this
time it appears the period where we will see the combination of
snow/patchy blowing snow/gusty winds on the leading edge of the
cold front/pressure rises will be relatively short. Will let
evening/mid crew decide on a Special Weather Statement, but we did
highlight elsewhere in our other products and social media.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Strong CAA behind Sunday`s cold FROPA will usher in another Arctic
airmass Sunday night through Tuesday morning, where wind chill
headlines will likely be needed. After Tuesday, it is becoming
increasingly likely we will have a strong warming trend as ridging
builds into the region mid-week followed by a quasi-zonal flow.
Widespread highs in the 30s are forecast Thursday-Friday and would
not be surprised to see these temperatures increased with some 40s
also possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Hazards to aviation for the 06Z TAF forecast include MVFR
conditions in stratus across parts of western and central North
Dakota early this morning, and gusty northwest winds with some
blowing snow later on Sunday. At midnight CST a warm front was
oriented north-south near the Devils Lake Basin and James Valley. A
large area of MVFR stratus was over much of the east half of ND -
skies had cleared at KMOT and expect KBIS to clear by around 07z.
KJMS will remain MVFR through much of the morning hours. Meanwhile,
a surface arctic cold front extended westward from a low over
central Manitoba at midnight CST. This cold front is forecast to
enter northwestern ND around 12z and sweep southeast across the
state. This front will bring gusty northwest winds near 30 knots,
variable MVFR/VFR ceilings, and and vsbys of 3-6sm in light snow and
blowing snow. Conditions to improve after 00z Sunday evening with
decreasing clouds and northwest winds decreasing to around 10-15
knots.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...PA



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