Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 202008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
308 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

An upper level trough over the western U.S. and southwest Canada
will elongate, with a northeast to southwest frontal boundary
developing over the state. This will produce a sharp temperature
gradient between cool temperatures northwest and mild temperatures
southeast on Thursday.

A lee side surface trough is already beginning over central
Montana with a moderate southwest flow across the forecast area
today. As the upper trough begins to split tonight we will see an
increasing low level jet and warm advection in response to the
digging portion of the upper trough along the West Coast. Tonight
our main forecast issue will likely be increasing low level wind
shear from west to east as this process occurs. Late tonight into
Thursday morning, shortwave energy tracking through the southwest
upper flow, coincides with the strong warm advection, producing an
area of increasing clouds and a few showers from west central
into north central ND. Utilized a blend of short term guidance for
pops and amounts will be light with likely only a narrow band of
any light accumulating precipitation. Highs Thursday will range
from the mid 60s northwest to the upper 70s over the southern
James River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

An active southwest flow pattern will persist over the northern
plains through early next week, followed by a slow transition to a
drier and warmer pattern from mid to late week.

Daytime highs will be mainly in the 50s over the weekend with
overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. We will likely be dealing
with at least a mention of frost for portions of the forecast area
each day through the weekend and into early next week. We then warm
up into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. Although not a complete
washout, we will likely see at least a slight chance of
precipitation through the weekend. Best chances will be Friday into
Saturday. The next wave will spread widespread rain from the
southern Rockies into the Great lakes region Saturday night through
Sunday night, but latest model trends keep the bulk of the
precipitation associated with this system just to our south and
east, but we will probably see at least a glancing shot of
precipitation across our southern and eastern zones.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Mostly sunny skies will remain across the region today in broad
subsidence in wake of departing cold front. This will maintain VFR
at all TAF through 18Z Thursday. Gusty southwest winds 15 to
25kts through 00z. Low level wind shear KBIS-KJMS expected after




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