Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 270512
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN AREA/LINE OF CONVECTION
STRETCHING FROM CARTWRIGHT IN MCKENZIE COUNTY...NORTHEAST TO
KENMARE AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO 7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
AREA. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-3000
J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT. NO GLOBAL OR HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL IS ACCURATELY HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WELL. MAIN CHALLENGE
WILL BE TO FORECAST THIS AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
PATTERN RECOGNITION ALONG WITH CURRENT SHORTWAVE SUGGESTS PERIODS
OF WEAKENING/DIMINISHING OF CURRENT ACTIVITY...BUT ALSO NEW
ISOLATED CELLS RANDOMLY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA. THIS IS WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE.
FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED THE ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AREA TO
NEAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL ADJUST IF
NECESSARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

REMOVED POPS SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA BACK NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ALONG AN INVERTED
SFC TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALL EVENING AS THEY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO LEFT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SCALED BACK ON POPS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

CONFINED POPS TO THE MORE DENSE CU FIELDS...SOUTHWEST AND
EAST...ALSO WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE AT. OTHERWISE UPDATES WERE
MINOR FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARM
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 800-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SOURIS BASIN...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1940 UTC DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS LOW. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH
SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE.
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...A
SIMILAR FOG SETUP TONIGHT IS EXPECTED WHICH PRODUCED FOG THIS
MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...ADDED FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

FOR SATURDAY...A WARM DAY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING AND
INSOLATION...WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED...ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WILL UTILIZE THE MODEL BLEND
IN REGARDS TO POPS WHICH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AT KBIS AND KJMS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SATURDAY
WITH VSBYS AT/AROUND 5SM. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR A
THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESIDES AT KJMS FROM 21Z SATURDAY
THROUGH 01Z SUNDAY. HAVE A VCTS MENTION FOR NOW AT KJMS WITH THE
REST OF THE TERMINALS DRY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS


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