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000
FXUS63 KBIS 251829
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1229 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OVER THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY IN. SOME SNOW LINGERS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR
UPDATE HAVE TIMED UP THE CLEARING WITH THE CURRENT TREND AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW AND CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A BIT RELUCTANT TO DEPART THIS MORNING
SO HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING A BIT LONGER AND HAVE HELD BACK ON
DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS
THINKING. THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF ALL DEPICT
FORCING...AND AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW COVERAGE QUICKLY DECREASING
BY MID DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...THEN COLD WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG EASTERLY OVERRUNNING FLOW
CONTINUES TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS/INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERMAL
UPGLIDE...COUPLED WITH THE MID LEVEL ENERGY AND CONTINUED
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER JET
STREAK...CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.

A FEW BREAKS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK RESULTED IN SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE REPORTS EARLIER. WILL KEEP THIS
MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING (AROUND 15Z) BASED ON NAM/GFS RH
PROFILES AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
AND IR SAT IMAGERY ALSO STILL HINT AT THIS AS WELL.

FORCING DECREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING AS SUPPORT
ALOFT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANCES
QUICKLY ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH A CLEARING SKY. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING MAY LINGER PAST 18Z.
ROBUST CAA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING NOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST (TURTLE MOUNTAINS)
TO THE TEENS ABOVE SOUTHWEST.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO EXPECT PRESSURE RISES TO GENERATE A
STEADY NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND OF 7-12KTS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH AND
AROUND 10 BELOW SOUTH...WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S BELOW WILL BE
COMMON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THUS WILL HOIST A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BEGINNING THIS EVENING
AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY AM. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW 40 BELOW READINGS BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT
THIS TIME SO FEEL AN ADVISORY IS BEST. DAY CREW WILL WANT TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE IMPACTS OF TWO ARCTIC AIRMASSES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
MEAN CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND SUPPORTS THE TRANSPORT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MID LATITUDES. THE FIRST OF TWO ARCTIC
AIRMASSES IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH THE SECOND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EACH
EVENT. GIVEN THE MOISTURE LACKING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDTIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS