Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 110511
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Forecast is generally on track and main changes were to blend in
current conditions.

UPDATE Issued at 902 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Current forecast looks good. Did have a brief cell pop up in
southern Emmons county but this moved quickly south. Forecast will
remain dry tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Area of clouds across western North Dakota not really showing up
much in model data but may be due to some mid level warm
advection ahead of the short wave trough due in Friday afternoon
into Saturday. Added some additional cloud cover west and central
overnight. Otherwise current forecast looks ok.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Scattered thunderstorms west Friday highlight the extended
forecast.

A few isolated showers are possible across the James River Valley
late this afternoon where relatively higher surface dewpoints in
the mid 50s are in place. Otherwise, a quiet overnight is expected
with surface high pressure. For Friday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the west with a few impulses
arriving ahead of the stronger wave across north central Montana
and southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Overall instability is
expected to be weak per the 12 UTC GFS and 18 UTC NAM, and
widespread severe weather is not expected. However, given a higher
shear environment and inverted-v soundings, there is a non-zero
severe wind gust potential.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Continued showers and thunderstorms west and south central Friday
night into Saturday, with a possibly more active convective
pattern early/mid next week highlight the extended forecast.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday night into Saturday
across predominately western and south central North Dakota as the
aforementioned shortwave from the short term slowly propagates
southeast and weakens. Again, overall instability is weak and
severe weather is not expected. The 12 UTC global suite is in
agreement on shortwave ridging on Monday across the region with
mean southwest flow aloft late Monday through Wednesday. This
would suggest a bit more active of a convective pattern is
possible and will have to be monitored for severe potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period. The HRRR
suggests there could be a few patches of fog early this morning,
but confidence in that is not high enough to mention in the
forecast. Showers and a few thunderstorms will begin to work their
way into western North Dakota this afternoon, spreading east
tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...AJ



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