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000
FXUS63 KBIS 201505
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1005 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

We increased cloud cover percentage across western ND today based
on satellite imagery through mid-morning, which shows a relatively
thick area of mid- and high-level clouds spreading southeastward
across the area in response to warm air advection aloft. We also
chose to retain a slight chance of showers in west central and
southwest ND through early afternoon in respect to upstream radar
trends, though as mentioned previously, the dry lower atmosphere
shown on the 12 UTC Bismarck and Glasgow RAOBs likely means that
few of the radar-observed echoes are actually reaching the ground.

UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Given dry low level air, expect very little, if any showers
across northeast Montana this morning to yield precipitation
reaching the surface as they propagate into southwest North
Dakota. Given the recent bias to be a bit too cool for highs, did
increase forecast temperatures towards the warmer edge of
guidance available as of 10 UTC for today and Wednesday. Thus, a
few 90s are forecast now south central on Wednesday in the warm
sector of the low that will propagate across southern Canada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Overall today should be a nice quiet day.
Southerly surface flow will kick in warm air advection.
Temperatures today should be in some cases about 10 degrees warmer
than yesterday.

There`s a slight chance of some light showers southwest as a weak
850 wave moves through this morning, but otherwise we should
remain dry through most of the day. An upper level wave will enter
the west tonight and bring with it a cold front. Showers and
thunderstorms could develop late tonight across western North
Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Very cool, below-normal temperatures from late this week through
the weekend highlight the long term forecast period.

A midweek ridge breaks down by Friday and several waves move
through bringing chances for mainly showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms. In addition to rain chances the troughing across
the Great Lakes will bring much cooler air into the region with
highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

A brief and light shower is possible in west central and southwest
ND through early afternoon, but dry air below cloud bases will not
allow much precipitation to reach the surface. VFR conditions and
light winds are forecast today across western and central North
Dakota with high pressure in place. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible tonight across the area, along with low level wind shear
with strong winds just off the surface.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...PA/CJS