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000
FXUS63 KBIS 241859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CONTINUES TO NOSE COLD
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM LIGNITE TO WASHBURN TO LINTON MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WESTHOPE AND MINOT ARE ALREADY REPORTING LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER WAVE ARE
SLOWLY ROTATING SOUTH OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS FROM THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE MINIMAL...EVEN THOUGH WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE FREEZING RAIN MENTION AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. FURTHERMORE...THE
DEEPER LAYER OF COLDER AIR NOSING SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP TYPES IN THE RAIN/SNOW REALM
DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER FALLS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SO FAR AIR TEMPERATURES UNDER THE PRECIPITATION CANOPY
HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH A LIQUID RAIN BEING
REPORTED. HOWEVER...ROAD SURFACES ARE AT THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME
SPOTS LEADING TO THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN.
ADJUSTED THE SPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POSSIBILITY. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN MOVES EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ALL SNOW AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE CLIPPER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

GIVEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
OVERNIGHT...ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE MORNING...DESPITE RISING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THUS...EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS.

ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...DID EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE 09
THROUGH 11 UTC RAP SOUNDING ITERATIONS AT BAKER AND DICKINSON AND
THE 06 UTC GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. ALL DEPICT 45-55 KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WITH NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH 800 MB.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING.

FINALLY...THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS...03 UTC SREF AND 00 UTC ECMWF ALL
SUGGEST HIGHS REMAINING ONLY IN THE 30S TODAY. THIS EQUATES TO A
BIT MORE SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WEST...RAIN AND SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WEST AND CENTRAL...AND
GUSTY WINDS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

CURRENTLY...POTENT LEAD S/WV IMPULSE MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AND WILL ENTER INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA 10-12Z. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DESPITE
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OVER WESTERN OBSERVATION SITES.
ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING SO ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL
LIKELY FREEZE CREATING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL SOLAR RADIATION
WARMS THE ROAD SURFACES QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. WE WILL FOR NOW
HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

NEXT EMBEDDED IMPULSE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH SUPPORT ALOFT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL
ERODE AS THE DAY GOES ON SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREEZING RAIN
PROBLEMS AFTER SUNSET WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT
COOL...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A MIX WILL BE
NORTH WHERE COOLING ALOFT OCCURS EARLIER...AND THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR ALL RAIN WILL BE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE FORECAST. AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

BESIDES PRECIPITATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SOUTHWEST. BUFKIT INDICATES
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THESE STRONG WINDS TOUCHING MY FAR SOUTHWEST. 12Z GFS
STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AND NAM WEAKER SO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTY FOR NOW
AS THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PEAK
WINDS IN MY AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS DEPICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-97TH PERCENTILES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS LOWERS 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO RECORD
HIGHS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A DEEPENING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL LINGER OVER KMOT-KBIS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER KMOT-KBIS-KJMS. PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM