Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 291942
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM
FOR ALL TAF SITES.  A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM A LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS APPROACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR (KJMS AND
KFAR) EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH.
LATE TONIGHT AFT 06Z EXPECT MID CLOUD VFR CIGS TO MOVE/DEVELOP OVER
KISN/KMOT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER AT KISN AND
KMOT MAINLY TOWARDS 12Z. HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH VCSH...AS TIME
PERIOD IS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



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