Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 242035
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
335 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Continued cool temperatures through Thursday highlights the short
term forecast.

Wrap around moisture associated with the upper level low across
southwest Manitoba will remain across western and central North
Dakota through the evening and into the early overnight. Cloud
cover is expected to decrease west to east late tonight into
Thursday morning. A cool airmass will remain in place on Thursday
marked by the 12 UTC NAEFS ensemble mean 850 mb temperatures in
their lowest 10 to 2.5 percentiles. Highs around 70 are expected
area wide. Given good agreement, a blend of the 12-15 UTC global
and high resolution suites were used for most fields.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Thunderstorms Friday and moderating temperatures Sunday into next
week highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on a long wave trough
to propagate across the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday. This
feature marks the best chance for showers and thunderstorms across
western and central North Dakota in the extended forecast.
Thereafter, a very low amplitude, broad upper level ridge is
favored Sunday into early next week. This would suggest a
potential return to near normal temperatures with highs in the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Stratus/stratocumulus will remain across western and central
North Dakota through the evening, clearing west to east through
the late night into Thursday morning. Generally VFR ceilings this
afternoon will return to MVFR through the evening and overnight.
Northwest wind gusts of 25-30kts are forecast area wide through
sunset.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

PJA



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