Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 261636
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1136 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LATE MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS...AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW MORE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THAN INITIALLY FORECAST...SO HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER A
LITTLE...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS
PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. BOWMAN RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES
BUT DOUBTFUL IF MUCH IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND. ALREADY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA SO ADJUSTED POPS JUST A BIT
TO COVER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z TODAY. HIGH
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS BOTH HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR FEATURE/H850 COLD ADVECTION
THAT MANIFESTS ITSELF AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT
WILLISTON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION. WILL ADD A
PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL INVOLVE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGS BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
FRONT DOES HELP PUSH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WHICH ESTABLISHES A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CK



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