Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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856
FXUS63 KBIS 221322
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
822 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Little change with this update other than to blend to observed
trends through 12 UTC. Did add a mention of afternoon showers to
the northern James River Valley ahead of the cold front per the
12 UTC RAP/HRRR iterations.

UPDATE Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Front has started to work into the area over far northern portions
of North Dakota, as low clouds are now starting to push towards
Williston, and fog is being reported at Rolla. For morning update
have advanced timing of cloud coverage a bit over northern
locations, and have increased cloud coverage a bit near the Turtle
Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Current surface analysis places high over the central plains,
while to the north a cold front is lined up along the
international border. Upper level analysis places weak high over
South Dakota with ridge over the western United States.

For today...main focus will be aforementioned cold front which
will gradually settle through northern North Dakota, pushing into
central portions of the state late afternoon into the evening.
Notable temperature gradient expected across the area with far
northern areas topping out in the 40s, while much of the remainder
of the area will see the 60s. Scattered rain showers will
eventually develop along and behind the front, with some snow
developing later tonight as cooler air works in. Greatest chance
for measurable snowfall remains generally along and to the north
of Highway 2.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Front continues to droop into the area and takes on more of a
northwest to southeast orientation as cold air backs in. During
the day into the evening precipitation chances remain towards the
north near right entrance region of a passing jet streak, though
this spreads southward overnight as a shortwave approaches from
the west and a surface low starts deepening over South Dakota.
With cooler air pulling into the system, a conversion towards
snow possible late.

On Monday widespread precipitation chances continue as shortwave
meanders easterly as surface low shifts towards Minnesota, with
chances decreasing in the afternoon/evening with the departure of
the system. Temperatures remain cool, with highs in the 40s over
most locations.

An unsettled pattern develops for the remainder of the forecast
period bringing occasional precipitation chances along with below
average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 816 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

IFR/LIFR fog and stratus across northwest and north central North
Dakota will continue to impact KISN through 15 to 16 UTC, and
quickly arrive at KMOT by 14 UTC. Fog and stratus will begin to
scatter late this morning, with MVFR ceilings possible in cumulus
this afternoon. Scattered rain showers this evening changing to
snow tonight are forecast northwest and north central. IFR
conditions possible in snow.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD



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