Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281659

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1159 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Quick update as diurnal convection is beginning a bit earlier
than forecast across western and central North Dakota. The
strongest convection and the greatest wind threat over the next
1-2 hours will be the Turtle Mountains region ahead of an impulse
noted on the three GOES16 water vapor channels.

UPDATE Issued at 844 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

No change in forecast thinking in a near copy of Saturday`s
weather expected again across western and central North Dakota
today under cyclonic flow aloft. Just like Saturday, high based
diurnal showers and thunderstorms with inverted-v soundings and
strong environmental winds supports the threat for wind gusts to
50-55 mph and localized blowing dust given recent dry conditions.
The forecast was blended to observed trends through 13 UTC and
the latest CAM guidance through the 12 UTC RAP/HRRR.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A few light showers are trying to make their way into far
northwest North Dakota early this morning. Therefore, have added
some low precipitation chances and adjusted cloud cover a bit over
this area. Otherwise, going forecast is in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Current surface analysis places low along the Manitoba/Ontario
border, with high stretching along the Rockies. Upper level
analysis places low over the Manitoba/Ontario border with ridge
building over the Sierra into the Pacific Northwest. Multiple
short wave noted rotating around the low.

For today...a similar day to yesterday is expected with showers
developing in the afternoon as the next wave wraps into the area.
A few thunderstorms will also be possible with modest instability
noted. Winds will again be on the windy side as moderate pressure
gradient remains in place.

Tonight....showers will gradually dissipate in the evening with
lost of daytime heating. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected as
upper low works its way to the south-southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Upper low will work easterly near Lake Superior on Monday,
bringing shower chances mainly to central and eastern portions of
North Dakota. With that said, another windy day is expected across
the area.

Quieter weather returns to start the work week as ridge tries to
work its way into the area, bringing a modest warming trend.
Models are hinting towards a more unsettled pattern towards the
end of the week, but are in disagreement on the placement of some
key features.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A near copy of Saturday`s weather is expected across western and
central North Dakota today. Strong northwest wind gusts of
30-40kts will develop with scattered afternoon and early evening
showers and thunderstorms. Wind gusts with thunderstorms could
approach 50kts.




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