Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281439
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS.
REFLECTIVITY IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RETURNS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND HETTINGER HAS SHOWN SOME LIGHT SNOW RECENTLY. STILL
EXPECT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MAIN AREA WAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE BISMARCK/MANDAN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES HERE ARE IN THE MID
30S WITH RAIN AT THE BISMARCK AIRPORT AND LIKELY A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AT THE MANDAN AIRPORT. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS ARE
CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS THIS AREA MOVES THROUGH MORTON...GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES. THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY THAT EXPIRES AT 7 AM CENTRAL BUT BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO THE ADVISORY AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLIMBING FROM
THE MIDDLE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A DECREASE
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. ROADS
WILL STILL BE SLIPPERY/SLUSHY FROM THE SNOW THAT FELL YESTERDAY
THROUGH LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AS PLANNED
AT 7 AM.

UPDATED TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND A BLEND OF SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND POTENTIAL FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY THIS MORNING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SLOPE...HETTINGER...BOWMAN AND
ADAMS COUNTIES REMAINED NEAR FREEZING LEADING TO CONTINUED LIGHT
SNOW/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. FURTHER EAST TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPERIENCING LIGHT RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL
VORT MAX WAS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING.
THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PAST HOUR. A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BAND HAS SET UP ALONG I-94.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST THIS MORNING
AND DIMINISH/END BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...MUCH DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT. AS
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE RAP
INDICATES THAT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED IN AND
COULD PRODUCE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS MISSED OUT ON MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION OF THE PAST WEEK. THEREFORE...FUELS COULD QUICKLY
DRY OUT. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR ON FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE WIND SPEEDS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME
WILL FORGO ANY FIRE HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE LONG TERM APPEARS DRY...WARM AND SUNNY.

LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A WEEK MEAN QUIET WEATHER FOR NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP ERODE THE PERSISTANT CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARMER THAN WE`VE EXPERIENCED
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...HOWEVER...DUE TO AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT
AND COOLER AIR ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOW 60S. BUT...BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS
IN AND WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KBIS MAY FLIRT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS LIGHT RAIN MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF
THE LOW STRATUS AND RAIN SOUTH OF THE BISMARCK AREA SO ELECTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



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