Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 290803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
303 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday afternoon)

Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be fog this
morning and chances for showers tonight into Friday west/north

Currently, blocking pattern remains in place with upper level
ridging across the Northern Plains region. A clear sky and light
winds has led to low dewpoint depressions across my central and
eastern counties early this morning, so will maintain a mention of
fog in the forecast through sunrise. Better return flow west so
left fog out there.

South/southeasterly return flow increases and spreads east this
afternoon. Pressure gradient tightens in response to an embedded
S/WV impulse moving northeast across the Central Rockies inducing
deepening low pressure over the high plains of WY/MT. This wave
will continue northeast into the Northern Plain late tonight into
the day Friday as we transition to southwest flow aloft, and will
bring a chance for some showers to western and north central
portions of the state. Opted to remove thunderstorms from the
forecast. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF indicate very little if any
MUCAPE during this period. The SPC SREF prob thunder is also very
low Thursday night- Friday so my confidence in thunder is low
despite SPC keeping western ND in the general thunder outlook for
Day 2.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Main highlights in the long term period will be thunderstorm
chances increasing this weekend and into early next week, followed
by cooler temperatures and an continued active weather pattern for
next week.

Models remain in fair agreement with a closed upper low moving
onshore the Northern California coast Sunday, then progresses east
across the Intermountain West/Central Rockies early in the week
before lifting northeast through the Northern Plains mid-week.
Mainly dry conditions Friday night/Saturday ahead of the wave.
Embedded mid level energy coupled with a surface boundary will
then bring precipitation chances to the region Saturday night
through Monday. We are mainly in the warm sector of this boundary
so will see decent instability and shear for possible organized
thunderstorm activity, especially for Monday when models paint
1-2K J/KG of MUCAPE over portions of the Dakotas along with
30-40KTs of 0-6KM shear.

As the wave lifts through the Dakotas mid-week, wrap around
moisture and CAA may bring a shot of a mix of rain/snow or all
snow to areas of western ND late Wednesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)

Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

High pressure aloft and a dry air mass will allow VFR conditions to
prevail today and tonight. However, patchy fog is possible through
about 14 UTC from the Turtle Mountains into the James River valley.
Local MVFR or IFR conditions are possible with the fog and perhaps
stratus, but winds above the ground may be just strong enough to
prevent any fog from becoming very well-established or dense.





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