Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. MORNING UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THESE AREAS AND
REMOVE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND PARALLEL/ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF AN H300 JET. TO THE NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
H500. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER...MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AM. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND H300 JET TAKES HOLD. THEN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM
H300 JET WILL POSITION ITSELF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE E BREEZY WEST AFTER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE WAVE DIVES
THROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL TAPER BY EVENING
WITH PRECIP ENDING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS WORKS EAST. BY
TUESDAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WORKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES
THE REGION...SLOWLY WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THRU THE REGION. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN TERMINAL FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS






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