Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221139
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
639 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

No changes with the update. Blended forecast to most recent hourly obs.
Breezy conditions continue with widespread clouds across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be breezy and
warmer conditions today, followed by a chance for light freezing
rain late tonight south central.

Currently, upper level ridge axis over the high plains building
eastward. Strong southerly return flow across the Dakotas with
high pressure over the Western Great Lakes region and a trough of
low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies. Radar void of
returns and will maintain a dry forecast for the remainder of the
overnight. Breezy conditions spreading eastward along with
increasing cloud cover resulting in temperatures steady to rising
early this morning.

WAA today as a warm front moves east across the region with the
upper level ridging. Coupled with a decent southerly mixing wind
will result in temperatures 15-25F degrees warmer than we saw on
Tuesday. Models continued their dry trend so removed any mention
of precipitation today through the evening hours.

Ridge moves east tonight allowing south/southwesterly flow to
develop/increase ahead of a potent upper level trough/closed low
over the Great Basin. Vigorous lead S/WV ejects northeast towards
the region late tonight and will bring a chance for precipitation
first across Wyoming/SD with moisture progged by a handful of high
res and mesoscale models into my southern areas towards 09-12Z and
afterwards. Thermal profiles still suggest a window of freezing
rain possible, so this was maintained in the gridded
forecast/HWO/SFP.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The extended period will be highlighted by a continued
progressive flow pattern.

Upper level trough/closed low moves eastward across the Central
Rockies today then into the Central Plains Friday. Best
precipitation chances remain across the southern half of the state
on Thursday daytime in the form of rain, with precipitation
chances ending Thursday night as high pressure nudges south into
the state. Quiet Fri & Sat then a return to active weather late
this weekend. Overall, temperatures will be very mild this
weekend with a cooling trend possible early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Extensive cloud deck with MVFR ceilings has continued to progress
eastward this morning. Expect conditions to improve across the
west (KDIK and KISN) by mid/late morning and progress eastward
during afternoon. Gusty winds will also show a gradual diminishing
trend from west to east during the day, eventually becoming
lighter at KJMS this evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JNS


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