


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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241 FXUS63 KBIS 121128 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 628 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of smoke exit the forecast area from west to east today. Otherwise, dry with a warming trend through the weekend. - Turning cooler north on Monday but remaining hot south. Highs ranging from the mid 70s far north to the mid 90s far south. - Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Monday night, some storms could be strong to severe central and south. - Notably cooler mid-week with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 No updates needed. With the previous update, we added patchy fog for a few hours early this morning based on satellite imagery. UPDATE Issued at 515 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Quick update to add some patchy fog over much of the CWA. Thinking this is shallow fog and the combo of fog/smoke is probably making vsbys lower than if it were just fog. Fog should burn off pretty quickly this morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Currently, surface high pressure centered near the Black Hills, covered western portions of the Northern Plains. A lee side trough was situated over the Canadian and Northern Rockies with a southerly return flow over the Northern High Plains. The surface trough will push east this morning, into the central and eastern Dakotas. A southwest surface flow and a west to northwest mid to upper level flow will help push the smoke that is currently over western and central ND, out of the forecast area today. Otherwise, expect a dry and warm day with highs in the upper 70s Turtle Mountains to the mid and possibly upper 80s far west. Disregarding the smoke, we will see initially clear skies this morning, but with some increasing high and mid level clouds this afternoon associated a northern stream trough tracking through Canada. Tonight, the weak and dry surface cold front associated with the Canadian trough tracks southeast through the forecast area with nothing more than a wind shift with the frontal passage. Not as cool tonight with lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. On Sunday we see anther warm and dry day, with highs a few degrees warmer than today. After mostly light southwest winds today, we see breezier northwest winds on Sunday, strongest in the north central into the James River Valley, where we could see some afternoon gusts into the 25 to 35 mph range. Based on the latest guidance, we could see another lobe of smoke clip our northeast CWA on Sunday, with higher concentrations remaining north and east of the CWA. Monday begins the transition from broad upper level ridging over the western half of the U.S. and a northwest upper flow, to more of a zonal flow as a series of waves that track along the International Border, under a developing Hudson Bay low. This will bring a noticeably cooler airmass to the forecast area for the Tuesday - Thursday timeframe. But before we get to that, we might see some showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, some strong to severe. Yesterday we mentioned this potential but the CSU ML page indicated the severe potential was just south of the state. It has now sneaked up into southern North Dakota. SPC has also introduced a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms over southwest and into central North Dakota. A quick look at the forecast temperatures Sunday can give you an idea of the storm potential. Highs are forecast in the mid 70s in the far north, to the mid 90s far south. We will see an east to west frontal boundary dropping south with at least moderate instability to the south of the boundary. Moderate bulk shear south of the boundary will increase to strong shear along and north of the boundary. We will certainly need to continue to monitor the potential for severe storms Monday afternoon into Monday night. After the initial boundary pushes south through the area Monday night, there is a lot of uncertainty in how the mid-upper level flow shakes out. The threat for severe storms look to be low, but periodic chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible through mid-week. Currently our NBM pops depict low to medium chances for precipitation in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. Wednesday currently looks to be the coolest day with highs mainly in the 60s across the forecast area. Then perhaps a slow warm-up as we head into next Weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 MVFR to IFR visibilities at KXWA, KDIK and KMOT to begin the 12Z TAF period in smoke and fog, with only smoke at KJMS. Fog should dissipate by around 14-15 UTC. Short term models show smoke exiting the area from west to east this morning. By this afternoon expect only mid and high level cloudiness with southwest to west winds generally 10 to 15 mph. Winds diminish early this evening and shift to the south. Winds remain light overnight but do shift west to northwest from west to east behind a dry cold front. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH