Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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282
FXUS63 KBIS 081553
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CHANGES WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 429 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL
STILL GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS SURROUNDING THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST CENTRAL. A DRY DAY
AHEAD...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT COMING THROUGH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE TONIGHT RESULTING IN WEAK
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES PER GFS ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK UPGLIDE/VERTICAL
MOTION AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE THETA SURFACES.
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPSTREAM IS MOSTLY CHANNELED AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HENCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TONIGHT WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. THE SREF/NAM SEEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR SPLIT ON
GENERATING PRECIPITATION OR NO PRECIPITATION. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
WOULD BE MINOR WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF AROUND
A HALF INCH SHOWS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DO NOT SEE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NORTH AMERICAN H500 FLOW REGIME HAS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A HEALTHY H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT SOME BAROCLINICITY AS A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE BUT
THIS WEAK ENERGY WILL FLOW PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
THE WARM AIR WEST AND COLD AIR WEST. HAVE REFRAINED FROM
MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE BEST PRECIP TYPES
SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO
LIMIT SUPER COOLED WATER.

BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL BE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
MOVES EAST A BIT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE H500 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE EAST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL REFLECT THIS FLOW. HIGHS INTO THE
40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO EAST TO THE 20S WEST UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MILDER AIR TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJMS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MVFR CIGS AT KJMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 18Z MONDAY
THEN BECOME VFR. EXPECT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT KJMS. INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KBIS/KMOT...AND LOW VFR AT KISN/KDIK. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MENTION/VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK IN THE 09Z-12Z TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS



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