Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 012301
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
601 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC AND 18 UTC
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FOR THE HEAVY SNOW BAND TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG. CERTAINLY
COULD SEE A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL
AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW IS LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. WILL ALLOW THE SPS TO EXPIRE
AT 00 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING. IT
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS WE DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO ALBERTA
WILL INDUCE A COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH 2D FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE THUNDER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE SO WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON CRITICAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0 DEGREES C. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE...AS THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ENTERS
NORTH DAKOTA...INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DIURNAL HEATING GIVES WAY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...A TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODELS (12UTC
ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE -2C TO -4C 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BOARDER. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS (MAINLY NORTHEAST) WILL SEE THEIR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON. BUT DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ADEQUATE TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE STRONG WIND. A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED LATER THIS WEEK IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GENERALLY VFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD






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