Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280719
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
119 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 119 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING NORTH AS EXPECTED...AND WILL HOLD ON WITH
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHEAST WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
WILL REEVALUATE IN 3 HOURS.

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO EASTERN MONTANA
THE PAST FEW HOURS...NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MID LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING MOST AREAS RESULTS IN SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME AREA OBS NOT REPORTING MUCH WITH
CIGS AT OR ABOVE 9-12K FEET AGL. STILL SOME CONCERN SO WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR. EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ABOVE
FREEZING WITH LIGHT RAIN REPORTED AT BAKER MT AND BEACH.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CANCELLED THE BULK OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS UPDATE
AS RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES ARW...NMM...AND NAM PROG SNOW TO
REDEVELOP NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
THEREFORE...KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR
BOTTINEAU...ROLETTE...AND PIERCE COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...ONLY ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...SNOW IS STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES SO WILL KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THEM FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS MCKENZIE...DUNN...MERCER...AND OLIVER COUNTIES ARE
CONCERNED...GIVEN THE LINGERING WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER NORTH OF BISMARCK...WILL KEEP THEM IN AN
ADVISORY FOR THIS UPDATE. IF PRECIPITATION TRENDS CONTINUE
DOWNWARD FOR THOSE COUNTIES...MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY
EARLY FOR THE 10 PM UPDATE. FOR NOW JUST RE-SENT THE WSW TO
FRESHEN IT UP AND REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING. THE REMAINING PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET DIMINISHING INTO A NARROW BAND AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST. ANTICIPATE THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER CONTINUES TO BE LOW...AND MAY ONLY  REACH
CENTRAL MORTON COUNTY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN EAST CENTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ADDED SEVERAL COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY IN COORDINATION WITH WFO
FARGO-GRAND FORKS. OTHERWISE DIMINISHING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF OF SNOW NORTH AND
EAST CENTRAL BY FRIDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW NORTH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE FREEZING RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND VERY COLD AIR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 52 THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM
LAYER ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
MORNING. THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL BE SHOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR MOVES IN. AS
THE COLD TAKES HOLD...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.
WHILE ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...TRAVEL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL APPROACH 30 BELOW ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 119 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER KMOT-KJMS-KISN THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVER KDIK-KBIS THE
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR KISN-KBIS-KDIK THIS MORNING...AND FOR KISN-KMOT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ004-005-013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH






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