Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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204
FXUS63 KBIS 291722
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Temperatures at some locales were rising a bit faster than forecast,
but with high clouds moving northward, thinking lower to mid 60s
most areas for high temperatures today as in current forecast will
be on track. Thus adjusted hourly forecasts with current
observations this update with no other changes for the afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 850 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

A cool start to the morning, otherwise very similar to Friday but
a bit warmer and with maybe a few more mid and high clouds.
Updated sensible weather elements and interpolated to mid morning
values. Otherwise no changes to going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Going forecast right on track with reality.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the north will
provide the subsidence needed for a dry day with a lot of
sunshine. The weak pressure gradient results in wind speeds under
15 mph for the most part through the short term.

The tail of a weak vorticity maxima wave crosses into western
north Dakota this afternoon and may trigger some cumulus
formation, however, with dew points so low, 15 to 20, any
hydrometeor falling from the cloud will evaporate before reaching
the surface.

Expect seasonable temperatures with highs 57 to 66.

For fire weather - minimum relative humidities today are forecast
to be in the 15 to 25 percent range, lowest from Hettinger to
Bismarck. The 15 mph or less surface wind will counter those low
humdities.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

A more active pattern sets up for the first part of the long term,
followed by above normal temperatures to end it.

A mid level low moves out of the southwest and into the central
plains Sunday. It deepens as it does so and closer vertical
stacking of the low slows the whole system. As the low moves
toward Iowa it spreads its precipitation shield into the southeast
part of the forecast area, the Dickey county area. This spells a
period of wet weather Sunday night and Monday there. Also, a short
wave approaching from the west brings rain chances to the western
half of the forecast area coincident for Sunday night and Monday.
Enough instability is forecast for Monday afternoon that
thunderstorms were included for monday afternoon west.

Ridging builds in behind the exiting low with temperatures
warming through the 60s for highs for the middle and end of next
week, along with low temperatures above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

High pressure over the area will move southeast through the forecast
period. VFR conditions with a light southerly flow is expected.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...TWH



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