


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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840 FXUS63 KBIS 301925 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 225 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to medium chances for occasional showers or thunderstorms through Thursday afternoon. - Gradual warming trend through Thursday, with increasing humidity. - Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Independence Day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Current surface analysis places low over Ontario with high over northeast Wyoming, bringing a northwesterly breeze to the area. Upper level analysis places trough over the Midwest with ridge over the northern Rockies. Very modest cyclonic flow over our area combined with daytime heating has resulted in widespread cumulus clouds over our area, with one very small compact shower noted over south central North Dakota. For the rest of today into this evening, mainly quiet weather expected with the northwest breeze eventually tapering off. A few weak showers and maybe a stray weak thunderstorm may develop primarily around the James River Valley this afternoon in the weak cyclonic flow, which would end by early evening. Upper ridge then gradually creeps over our area through mid- week. A few weak waves sliding through the ridge will bring occasional low shower/thunderstorm chances over parts of the area. The main story will be a gradual warming trend, with highs pushing into the 90s over parts of the area Wednesday, and across most of the area by Thursday. In addition, humidity will also be on the increase. On Thursday ridge axis slides to the east, with upper flow becoming southwest over our area. This will result in increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night going into Independence Day. For the anticipated Thursday night storms, instability is expected to be elevated with plenty of moisture in place, but deep layer shear remains in question, which may be the limiting factor in severe potential, though some areas of heavy rain may become a concern given the moist atmosphere. An active pattern remains in place for Saturday into the start of the upcoming week, bringing daily low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS