Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220828

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
328 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Seasonable to mild temperatures today and tonight. Breezy with a
chance of showers across northern portions of the forecast area.

Latest WV loop indicates a shortwave near the WA/OR border in the
Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will propagate quickly eastward
across the Northern Rockies this morning and into north central
Montana by this afternoon. This will induce a surface low over
the Mondak area this afternoon, moving into central ND this
evening. Breezy south to southeast winds will develop over the
forecast area by this afternoon, then shift northwest from west
to east late this afternoon and this evening behind the surface
low. Decent 85h winds of 25 to 35kts on the back side of the low
tonight will likely not reach the surface as we decouple with the
loss of surface heating, but winds will likely remain breezy
through the night, especially along and east of Highway 83.

There is a very tight precipitation gradient associated with the
mid level forcing, with the majority of the qpf remaining just
north of the International Border. We will likely see a good
chance of showers with some light qpf right along the border, but
precipitation chances will quickly tail off as you head south with
little or no precipitation expected south of the Highway 2

Mild today across most of the CWA, with highs generally in the
upper 50s to middle 60s. A little cooler over the far northern
tier counties with abundant cloud cover. Highs here will remain
in the lower 50s.

Wrap around moisture on the back side of the low will keep a
chance of showers across the north central tonight. Colder air
does not really begin to drop south until after midnight so any
lingering precipitation will remain liquid except perhaps a brief
mix of rain and snow over the Turtle Mountains toward daybreak.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Cooler conditions are expected Sunday behind the exiting low
pressure system, with highs in the 50s.

Dry and mild as upper level ridging develops over the area Monday
into Monday night ahead of a closed upper low over the eastern
Pacific. Energy propagating around this system splits into two
waves with one tracking through southern Canada and another
farther south that lifts into the central plains on Tuesday. There
are some model differences in the tracks of each of these systems
but it does look like an increasing chance of showers Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning. Upper level Ridging again
builds over the region behind these two waves, bringing mild and
mainly dry conditions through the remainder of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

At 08z...high pressure extended from southern Saskatchewan across
the Dakotas into the central plains. Expecting light winds and sct
to bkn high clouds for the overnight hours. After daybreak low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies moves east towards
the western border of the Dakotas. This will allow southeast winds
to develop...along with VFR cigs over KISN-KMOT TAF sites. Late
this afternoon a cold front enters western ND and moves east into
eastern ND during the evening. Northwest winds behind the cold
front around 15 knots gusting to around 20 knots. May see some
late night MVFR cigs at KISN and KMOT...confidence not great
enough to mention in TAFs this issuance.




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