Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 141400
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FROST ADVISORY ENDS AT 14Z. ADDED CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST BASED ON
TQ INSTABILITY INDEX FROM NAM AND BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS AT
MINOT AND JAMESTOWN WHICH SHOW CONVECTION CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHALLOW CAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WRAP AROUND
STRATUS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS
ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. CANADIAN RADARS SHOW A FEW SHOWS STILL DROPPING
SOUTH TOWARDS BOTTINEAU AND BELCOURT. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN A DIMINISHING STATE AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ONLY CARRY A FEW SPRINKLES FOR THE
VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY...WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION THOSE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE
STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

FROST WILL BE A POTENTIAL CONCERN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY NEW HEADLINES SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE A
FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE A CONSIDERATION FOR LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS THIS
HAPPENS BROAD RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE WEEK. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED FROST MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE WARM UP BEGINS. OTHER THAN THAT...MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS MAY SEE MORE CU FORMATION TODAY AS
THERE IS A SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY FORMS IN DAYTIME HEATING.
BASES OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000 AGL AT KMOT TO 3500 AGL AT KJMS SO
BELIEVE BKN CLOUDS AND LOW VFR WILL BE THE BEST GUESS THERE WITH
KISN PROBABLY THERE AS WELL. SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5 THOUSAND AGL
KDIK- KBIS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA





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