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000
FXUS63 KBIS 091146
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

ONLY UPDATE NEEDED WAS TO CLOUDS AS AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS OPENED UP TEMPORARILY. MORNING LOWS SO
FAR ARE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S SO SHOULD BE A WARM AND BREEZY
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES CONTINUING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALLOWING MORE OF
A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW COMPONENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE RAP13 AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...SHOW INCREASING WINDS/MIXING HEIGHTS FROM
NEAR HETTINGER TO DICKINSON AND INTO WATFORD CITY...RESULTING IN
WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLY. THE
SOUTHWEST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS BEING FLATTENED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. ONE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR 45N/135W. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE
GFS...KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE NORTH
OF THE BORDER. THE GFS ADVERTISES SOME LIGHT QPF SNEAKING INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS AS
THE 4KM WRF-NMM PRECIPITATION GRAPHICS AND THE 4KM NAM COMPOSITE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL POPULATION.

UPSTREAM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING FROM
SATURDAY SUGGESTS OUR CURRENT/PREVIOUS MAX TEMPERATURE GRID FOR
TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 60F SOUTHWEST...TO
LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH CENTRAL...AND LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN THAT TRACKS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DID NOT SEE
SUFFICIENT REASON TO DEPART/CHANGE FROM THE ALLBLEND FORECAST. LEE
SIDE TROUGHING AND CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS WITH THE SURFACE LOW
FORMING ACROSS WYOMING AND TRACKING ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO OKLAHOMA.
LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
CANADA WILL TRANSPORT SUB 0C AIR AT H50 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL QPF
FORECASTS WITH THE ECMWF BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST IN GENERATING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
INTO PRECIPITATION OFTEN LIMITS THE FALL. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO PLACE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST`S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY BENEATH A WEAK PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL BRING A MOSTLY DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PICTURE FOR SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE AERODROMES DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS AT KDIK EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25KT AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40KT BETWEEN 16Z SUNDAY AND 00Z
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...THE OVERALL WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA