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000
FXUS63 KBIS 221756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SATELLITE PIC LOOP INDICATES REMNANT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM NEAR
LEMMON SD TO EASTERN STARK COUNTY WAS DISSIPATING. EXPECTING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS. STILL KEPT A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT HELD
OFF THE MENTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING QUICKLY THIS PAST HOUR. WINDS A BIT
LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST HOUR AND ADJUSTED
HOURLY WINDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ARE FINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG THROUGH 9 AM CDT. CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES.

THE RAINS OF MONDAY...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG HAD
FORMED AT TIOGA...WILLIAMS COUNTY...AT DICKINSON...AND AROUND
JAMESTOWN. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD WERE ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE STATE.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD
PATCHES ALSO DRYING UP AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN AND
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING NORTH JUST WEST
OF THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACHES
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. THE COMBINATION...IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR...COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BOWMAN-HETTINGER AREAS.

ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH COOLER LOWS...IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/OR COASTS WILL BE THE DEFINING FORECAST
FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
BY GFS/ECMWF TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH IDAHO BY
THURSDAY THEN INTO SASK/MANT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT THEN MEANDERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A COOLISH WEATHER PATTERN FOR JULY. AS THIS LOW BEGINS ITS
JOURNEY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA IT WILL FLATTEN AN H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MEANS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND FORCE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MID 90S SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY GOING 30-40 POPS FOR THIS. AFTER
FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE REGION ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE WHICH
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. SPOTTY 20 POPS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER CENTRAL ND. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTER 12Z. STILL HAVE VCTS IN KDIK AND
KISN FROM AROUND 21Z-02Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV