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000
FXUS63 KBIS 250250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
850 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

LATEST RADAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO WHERE WE HAD OUR
GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING HAS
BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR KEEP THIS
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS SLIDING EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER OVER THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...THROUGH AROUND 08-09 UTC. THEREAFTER QPF IS
VERY LIGHT IN NATURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. NOT MUCH CURRENTLY HAPPENING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PRESENTLY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A DRY
LAYER ALOFT AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES.

WE DID GET SOME SNOW DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND AN 1.5 INCHES
REPORTED AT WILLISTON. HOWEVER MOST OF WHAT FELL DURING THE DAY
MELTED DUE TO OUR WARM TEMPERATURES. LATEST NAM/RAP/HRRR INDICATE
PRECIPITATION TAPERING QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY ENDED BY MIDDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE
NOT INCLUDED WHAT FELL DURING THE DAY. WITH THIS...WE ARE NOW
LOOKING AT SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
OF MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP TO 2 INCHES
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM SIOUX...SOUTHERN GRANT AND
SOUTHERN MORTON COUNTIES...EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN EMMONS AND INTO
DICKEY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE NOTED OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A
FEW LIGHTER REFLECTIVITIES WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. IN
GENERAL THOUGH...A DECREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MANY AREAS. THINK SNOW WILL PICK
UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW
SLIDES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND PUSHES THE INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE
NO BIG CHANGES EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES PRIMARY LOW TO THE SOUTH OF JAMES
BAY WHILE SECONDARY LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SLIDE SOUTH FROM
SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO WORK SOUTH STRETCHING FROM EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY DROP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH SECONDARY LOW SLIDING FROM EASTERN
ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO...WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. INITIAL ROUND
OF SNOW CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFFILIATED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF PASSING JET STREAK AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO WEAKEN WHICH MAY BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE SNOW...THOUGH EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL TONIGHT
AS SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN MAKES ITS APPROACH INTO
THE REGION. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAS DONE A BIT OF A SHIFT TO
THE EAST WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...SO HAVE PUSHED THE FOCUS
FOR HIGHER POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHER TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ITS SHIFT INTO THE AREA WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...SNOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE PROGRESSION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE. COLD
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA BRINGING HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM COLD UPPER LOW
FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA THOUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL
KEEP THE EXTENDED PERIOD COLD AND DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1044MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THE MODELS PLACE THE HIGH CENTER
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ZERO...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 40
BELOW WILL BE A HAZARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST ESCAPING THE COLDEST WIND CHILL
VALUES.

THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY AS THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONES SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LEAVING NORTH DAKOTA DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S...WITH LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. A SLIGHT MODERATION IS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT THEN COOLER AGAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KDIK TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KBIS AND KISN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW. KMOT
AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH