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000
FXUS63 KBIS 081803
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1203 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 CST SUN DEC 8 2013

GRIDS UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND TO ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THAT ARE CONTINUING TO HANG ON. STILL EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK WITH THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH LATEST
HOURLY TEMPS...WINDS AND PRECIP TRENDS. RADAR...SURFACE OBS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AREAL COVERAGE AND
TIMING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PER COORDINATION WITH FGF...UPPED POPS ACROSS THE EAST
FOR ONGOING...LIGHTLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO
FIRST OF TWO CLIPPERS THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE
WEAKER OF THE TWO AND WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL WITH IT. THE
SECOND CLIPPER WILL HAVE MORE NOTABLE IMPACTS ON OUR AREA AND MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...LEADING TO BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. MAINLY FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
BISMARCK AND THEN EAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THEN
EXTRAPOLATED THE AREA NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25
BELOW AND WIND CHILLS OF 35 TO 40 BELOW. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR MOST FORECAST FIELDS. EXTENDED THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 18 UTC MONDAY. WHILE THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL WARM ABOVE -25 F FOR WIND CHILL VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON...WIND CHILLS QUICKLY FALL BY 00 UTC CWA WIDE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING ARCTIC AIRMASS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS TO -35 F WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY TODAY AS AN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF VERY FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH VERY HIGH SNOW
RATIOS GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CENTER AROUND TWO
ALBERTA CLIPPERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

THE 00 UTC 08 DEC GFS/NAM INDICATE 25-30KT WINDS SPREADING FROM THE
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING. ON
TUESDAY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG...20-25KTS...BUT THE
COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGER. SNOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH WITH EACH SYSTEM.
WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MORE ADIABATIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY FOR A MORE DEFINITE ADVISORY...SO
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS AND SEE IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE SEE A
WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT
SNOWS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 1203 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT KBIS AND KJMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO
MVFR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THEM JUST
ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD