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000
FXUS63 KBIS 232107
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERWOOD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALL RAIN
IS FORECAST WEST OF SAID LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION...WITH APPROXIMATELY ONE
HALF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA COULD REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. LIGHT
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT.

LATEST 12 UTC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT DEPICTING
THE CLIPPER SATURDAY/SUNDAY. GREATEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP SHOULD
FALL ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. PRECIP TYPE AND TRANSITIONS WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUE. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL
PRECIPITATION IN A LIQUID STATE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
WE MAY SEE A TRANSITION ACROSS THE EAST FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW. ICE AND/OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE RATHER MINIMAL WITH ONLY BRIEF TRANSITION PERIODS AND WARM
GROUND.

LOOKING AT THE FAR EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK...WE MAY RETURN TO A
SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN WITH AN ARCTIC INTRUSION RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...AND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A -RASN MIX MIGHT DEVELOP OVER
KJMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM