Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221121
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
621 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Front has started to work into the area over far northern portions
of North Dakota, as low clouds are now starting to push towards
Williston, and fog is being reported at Rolla. For morning update
have advanced timing of cloud coverage a bit over northern
locations, and have increased cloud coverage a bit near the Turtle
Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Current surface analysis places high over the central plains,
while to the north a cold front is lined up along the
international border. Upper level analysis places weak high over
South Dakota with ridge over the western United States.

For today...main focus will be aforementioned cold front which
will gradually settle through northern North Dakota, pushing into
central portions of the state late afternoon into the evening.
Notable temperature gradient expected across the area with far
northern areas topping out in the 40s, while much of the remainder
of the area will see the 60s. Scattered rain showers will
eventually develop along and behind the front, with some snow
developing later tonight as cooler air works in. Greatest chance
for measurable snowfall remains generally along and to the north
of Highway 2.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Front continues to droop into the area and takes on more of a
northwest to southeast orientation as cold air backs in. During
the day into the evening precipitation chances remain towards the
north near right entrance region of a passing jet streak, though
this spreads southward overnight as a shortwave approaches from
the west and a surface low starts deepening over South Dakota.
With cooler air pulling into the system, a conversion towards
snow possible late.

On Monday widespread precipitation chances continue as shortwave
meanders easterly as surface low shifts towards Minnesota, with
chances decreasing in the afternoon/evening with the departure of
the system. Temperatures remain cool, with highs in the 40s over
most locations.

An unsettled pattern develops for the remainder of the forecast
period bringing occasional precipitation chances along with below
average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

IFR CIGS currently over far northwest North Dakota will filter south
and impact KISN and KMOT this morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are
likely through most of the day at the remaining sites. There is a
chance for some light rain/snow north after 00z Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ


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