Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 141354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
854 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Issued at 842 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Little change for today other than for observed trends through 13
UTC. Expect precipitation to increase across far south central
North Dakota and into the James River Valley between 15-16 UTC as
the impulses evident across western South Dakota propagate
northeast through the morning.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

For morning update have spread fog potential a bit further south
over western portions of the region, and have spread out higher
cloud cover throughout the area. Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Current surface analysis places high pressure over southern
Saskatchewan with inverted trough/frontal boundary stretching
through the northern plains. Upper level analysis places trough
stretching from the Canadian plains towards central Idaho.
Southwest flow remains over our area. Some light snow remains just
to the west of us over northeast Montana, while a secondary area
of snow is now pushing off over southern Manitoba. Some light
rain now starting to develop along/ahead of the boundary over the
southern James River Valley.

For today...precipitation chances will gradually diminish over the
north this morning. The focus then shifts towards south central
North Dakota into the James River Valley as the upper trough axis
swoops through the area, providing enhanced lift with rain
developing through the morning, continuing into the afternoon.
Rain will then taper from west to east later in the afternoon into
the early evening as trough slides off to the east and ridging
starts to build in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Broad scale ridging over the area will bring dry conditions to the
forecast through much of the week. Temperatures will warm to near
average on Sunday, climbing to above average for the remainder of
the week. By Friday, models are hinting at a deep Pacific trough
pushing onshore setting up southwest flow over our area, resulting
in low precipitation chances entering the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 842 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility in stratus and fog across
western and north central North Dakota will slowly improve from
northwest to southeast through the late morning and the afternoon.
Light rain is expected across the far south central and James
River Valley late this morning and through the afternoon. Embedded
MVFR conditions are possible.




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