Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 120520
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1220 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Made some significant changes to the forecast based on satellite,
increased cloud cover, and radar, increased pops. A large area of
rain with a few lightning strikes was from Williston to Dickinson
and pushing east.

UPDATE Issued at 854 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Will focus on the far west for Thunderstorms for the rest of
tonight. Current forecast looks ok.

UPDATE Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

A few strong storms have formed across south central and
southwest North Dakota ahead of a shortwave trough forecast to
move into western North Dakota tonight. Believe the convection
will move into South Dakota this evening then more development
will move into west and southwest North Dakota late this evening
and overnight. Positioned the POPs to follow this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

For the near term...now through this evening across central ND...a
500mb vorticity lobe continues to loiter in north/south central
ND per latest water vapor imagery. Visible imagery along with
local radars shows isolated showers developing. Weak mixed layer
CAPE of between 250 and 500 J/Kg enough for isolated thunderstorms.
Little if any vertical tilt as Effective Shear is 20kt, thus no
severe weather anticipated in central ND. The showers/thunderstorms
will wane with sunset. Attention then turns toward southwest ND
this evening/tonight for possible severe thunderstorms.

With that said, for the short term period, highlights include:
A Marginal Severe Thunderstorm Risk this evening/tonight in
southwest ND; followed by a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms
southwest and south central ND Saturday. In addition, WPC/QPF
shows a Marginal/Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding Flash Flood
Guidance in southwest, south central, and possibly in the
southern James River Valley Saturday.

Latest Water Vapor Imagery shows our next upper low centered over
southwest Saskatchewan, with multiple mid level shortwaves now
over southern Montana. These lead shortwaves will shift east
tonight into early Saturday, followed by the upper low Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night.

Heavier rainfall is favored in the southern James River Valley
Saturday afternoon/night, which hinges on the formation of a
closed 700mb low developing in the vicinity of Emmons County
Saturday afternoon. This low then slowly meanders east into the
southern James River Valley Saturday night. Models in agreement
with the mid level closed low forming near Emmons County Saturday
afternoon, but rainfall amounts per models vary significantly.
Frontogenetical forcing and strong synoptic scale ascent occurring
above the frontogenetical layer, looks to result in rainfall amounts
between one and two inches in the southern James River Valley.
After coordinating with the WPC QPF desk, we agreed that with
model guidance all over the place at this time, and even with the
heaviest rainfall per NAM, amounts probably would not exceed the
projected 1HR/3HR/6HR Flash Flood Guidance values. WPC Gridded
values show the highest total amounts in McIntosh and Dickey
Counties between 1.50 and 1.75 inches through Saturday night.
Thus, expectations for a Marginal Excessive Rainfall is more
appropriate.

Marginal/Isolated Severe Thunderstorms also in the forecast
Saturday southwest and south central. Mixed layer CAPE within the
500-1000J/kg range with 0-6km shear between 25kt and 35kt.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Rainshowers/Chance of thunderstorms linger over the James River
Valley Sunday, with dry conditions elsewhere through Monday
morning. The upper flow transitions from northwesterly to
southwesterly during this time as a more active period evolves
Monday night through Friday. The specifics of the how the pattern
evolves is still uncertain, but the GFS/ECMWF indicate periodic
chances of showers/thunderstorms through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Main hazards to aviation include scattered thunderstorms tonight
and Saturday associated with a surface low pressure moving across
western South Dakota. VFR conditions will prevail across the
region outside of storms.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JPM



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