Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171630

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1030 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Issued at 1028 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

For this update focused on temperatures. Temperatures continue to
rise faster than previously forecast. We`ve already hit 48 degrees
here in Bismarck. Therefore, went much higher than most guidance
with low 50s expected over much of southwest and south central
North Dakota.

Issued at 645 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Weak radar returns continue to stream north-northeast across
western and portions of north central North Dakota this morning
ahead of a mid level S/WV trough. Expanded the timeframe of slight
chances for light rain through 14-16Z. Given cloud bases at or
above 10K FT AGL, doubt if much is reaching the surface anymore
though have seen an ob here and there reporting trace amounts of

All other forecast elements in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Mild and mainly dry conditions highlight the short term period.

Currently, upper level ridge pushing east of the Northern Plains
replaced with southwesterly flow aloft. Rather potent mid level
S/WV trough over the Northern Rockies advancing eastward early
this morning. Diffluent flow aloft ahead of this wave contributing
to increased sky cover and some light precipitation in the form of
rain over western and into portions of north central North
Dakota. Will maintain some low POPs through 12-13Z west and far
north central with thus far only trace amounts of moisture being
measured at observation points. At the surface a trough/cold
front extends from southwestern ND north-northeast across my
central counties. Temperatures greatly dependent on wind, sky
cover, and low level moisture. As the trough moves slowly east
through 12Z, high res models indicate westerly winds increasing
over my west along with increasing dewpoints. This is expected to
result in steady to rising temperatures there.

S/WV trough slides east across North Dakota today. Models continue
to bring QPF to my north this morning/afternoon along the track of
the wave so will maintain a mention of light rain there. West
winds expand east in the wake of the cold front this morning along
with weak CAA. While we are forecasting cooler temperatures
versus the past couple of days, still very mild despite the CAA
with decent mixing expected along with periods of sunshine.

Ridge of surface high pressure builds over eastern MT into western
SD tonight bringing dry conditions. A steady westerly wind should
keep temperatures from bottoming out with forecast lows 25 to 30F.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The long term period will be highlighted by continued mild
temperatures through early next week, followed by a cool-down
thereafter. For precipitation chances, three waves look to bring
moisture to our region Sunday night-Monday, Tuesday/Tuesday night,
then again late in the period Thursday-Friday.

Overall models remain in fair agreement with all three waves and
thus the Forecast Builder (FB) model blend maintained high chance
to likely POPs for all three above mentioned periods across the
region. The exception to this would be the system moving through
Tuesday where models have fluctuated south and north. This isn`t a
huge surprise given the scale of the wave. The Thursday-Friday
system still has potential for accumulating snow and significant
impacts to the region. Lots of uncertainty yet with a huge range
in the GEFS plumes for QPF/Snow along with large differences
between the 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF. Still, FB kept
likely/categorical POPs across my far south and generated rather
copious amounts of QPF/Snow. Definitely something to keep an eye
on in the days ahead.

Temperature profiles suggest a mix of rain/snow for the first two
S/WV`s as we remain warm. Depending on timing there may be a
window for some freezing precipitation during the nighttime or
morning hours. All snow end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)

Issued at 645 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

A weak cold front as of 12z Friday was located just east of KISN
and KDIK, as winds have shifted to the west behind the front.
Expect low level wind shear through the morning at KDIK/KISN, and
through the afternoon at KBIS. Otherwise westerly winds of 15 to
25 mph will occur at all terminals today. Vfr cigs/vsbys through
12z Saturday.




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