Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 132053
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MOST FAVORED
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...IF ANY. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON
MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EAST AND CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 40 DEGREES WEST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EAST AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL ND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
OVER MY NORTH NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER WAVE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. BOTH FEATURES WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DAYTIME AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD/NB. WAA STILL DEPICTED TO BE CONFINED TO
MY SOUTHWEST TUESDAY WHILE COLDER AIR IS MAINTAINED NORTH AND
EAST RESULTING IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS AGAIN A BIT DIFFERENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO REGARDING MOISTURE...CUTTING QPF IN HALF BUT STILL WOULD
GENERATE MAINLY SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO AS 1-3 INCHES REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AFTERWARDS BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

EXPECT AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 06Z-10Z. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT
KMOT/KJMS...BUT DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A VCSH RIGHT NOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH









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