Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
421 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Current surface analysis places low over central Saskatchewan with
high over the midwest. Breezy south to southeasterly winds
continue over much of North Dakota while a warm front works its
way to the northeast. Upper level analysis places ridge axis over
and just to the east of the Red River Valley while short wave
passes to the north.

For today...seasonably pleasant temperatures are expected over
the area as warm airmass pushes over. Temperatures in the 50s are
expected over most areas lacking snow, mainly 40s over snow
covered locations.

Tonight...Cooler air shifts in and an area of enhanced frontogenesis
develops primarily over southwestern and south central North
Dakota bringing some light rain with a transition towards light
snow overnight. Models indicate some steeper lapse rates
developing over far southwest North Dakota through the late afternoon
into the early evening so would not be shocked if a little
thunder were to develop in the early evening hours, but with the
scenario remaining rather unlikely at this point will keep it out
of the forecast though will keep an eye on it.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Ridge gradually develops to the west to start the week, though a
few weak clippers moving through may bring some precipitation
chances primarily to the southwest along with cooling
temperatures. Warmer air tries to push in on Wednesday, though
some precipitation may develop and slide over the region in modest
isentropic lift.

Thereafter models are off on the timing on some key features but
are in agreement with keeping an active weather pattern going
through the end of the week along with seasonably mild


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

A warm front will move east across the forecast area tonight.
Partly to mostly cloudy VFR conditions with CIGS above 10K FT AGL
expected all terminals through Sunday afternoon. Southerly flow
tonight will shift to northwest on Sunday. Low level wind shear
all terminals before this wind shift now through 12-18Z.




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