Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 061808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1208 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Mainly quiet and cold weather continues over the area. Have
updated grids with latest observations, otherwise previous
forecast remains in good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 847 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Snow over the southwest continues to gradually dissipate, so have
updated precipitation chances to address this. Otherwise, previous
forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 548 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Little overall change with this update. A cool and breezy day is
expected as high pressure builds across the region. Did add PoPs
for lake effect snow showers downstream of Lake Sakakawea for late
this morning and through the afternoon with northwesterly surface
winds of 15-20kts, and a large lake surface- air temperature
differential with a cold airmass in place. Expect any lake effect
snow showers to remain west of Mandan/Bismarck for most of the
day, with a slight chance in the late afternoon or early evening
with a slightly more westward component to the wind.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Light snow across southwest North Dakota will continue to diminish
this morning as high pressure moves in. Clouds will clear from
northeast to southwest today. A colder day is expected today
despite the clearing skies as cold air advection takes hold. With
fresh snow and mostly clear skies temperatures will fall near
zero tonight for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The long term appears rather quiet and mild as the main storm
track shifts east. We`ll see temperatures back in the 30s and 40s
by the weekend. Next week could be more active with the return of
several clippers.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The RAP model is indicating MVFR ceilings at KJMS lifting around
19Z. This model has been trending well with current conditions.
HiRes models are also hinting at IFR ceilings moving into the west
around 05Z, spreading east into central areas. Due to uncertainty,
opted to leave lower ceilings out of the TAFs but will continue to
evaluate the possibility of IFR ceilings.




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