Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240255

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
955 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Will update sky cover and POPs as the precipitation area moves
east and shrinks. Otherwise current forecast looks ok with fog
forecast to become more widespread later tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Band of steady rain now over Bismark and Mandan so updated to
likely pops for the early evening.

UPDATE Issued at 535 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Used the regional radars and the HRRR simulated DBz to refine the
POP chances this evening. This band of rain will translate
southeast slowly and diminish in areal extent and intensity with
time. Ended the thunderstorm threat as the low level lapse rates
have significantly diminished and the instability greatly
diminished as well.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Precipitation this afternoon and evening with isolated
thunderstorms possible south central this afternoon highlight the
short term forecast.

Isolated convection as of 1945 UTC has developed in an area of
clearing and destabilization across far south central North
Dakota, especially along zones of differential heating on the
cloud edges. Thus, added a mention of thunderstorms for these
areas for this afternoon and early evening.

Otherwise, rain across the southwest through the upper James River
Valley in association with strong 700-600mb frontogenesis will
slowly diminish through the early evening. The 15-18 UTC high
resolution, rapidly updating suites within their visibility
forecasts do suggest the potential for fog develop tonight into
Friday morning which is plausible given the abundant low level
moisture in place across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Above normal temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global models are in agreement on split flow across the
Northern Plains Friday and Saturday with an upper level ridge
potentially building across the region Monday into Tuesday, before
another potential return to split flow late next week. This
overall favors above normal temperatures with highs in the 40s and
50s and sporadic, weak precipitation events.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A southwest through northeast band of rain remains across
southwest and central North Dakota at 6 PM CDT. This will
translate very slowly southeast as it diminishes and ends after
around midnight.

The CONSshort guidance depicts widespread fog after midnight
particularly in KMOT, but patchy fog elsewhere as well. KMOT has
VLIFR develop in fog 08z through 12z gradually improving to IFR
after 16z and VFR after 19z. IFR Conditions in BR at KBIS between
11-17z. Otherwise VFR to MVFR late tonight KISN and KJMS and VFR
at KDIK.


Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Lake Darling will increase discharge to 1200 cubic feet per second
Thursday afternoon. Increased discharge will result in river levels
rising above minor flood stage later today. Additional increases are
likely over the coming days. Stay tuned to the Bismarck Office of the
National Weather Service for updates on future forecasts.




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