Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 151135
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
635 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Upper wave continues its quick progression through the region with
some light reflectivity showing up over northern portions of the
area on radar. Will continue low precipitation chances to address
this as it moves on its way.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Current surface analysis places low over northern Saskatchewan,
with trough dipping down into the northern plains. High remains
over the central Rockies into the Great Basin. Upper level
analysis places ridge over the Pacific northwest into British
Columbia, with trough over the midwest into the central plains.
Modest short wave moving through northwest flow is now nudging
into our area, bringing some cloud cover to the area and possibly
a few flakes or sprinkles to the far northwestern part of the
state.

For today, aforementioned surface trough/boundary and short wave
will scoot off to the east, possibly resulting in some very light
snow or rain over northern portions of the area this morning.
Skies will clear in the afternoon, but breezy conditions are
expected to develop behind the aforementioned system. Near
average temperatures expected. Quiet weather tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Upper ridge over the western United States meanders towards the
east bringing dry conditions and a warming trend to start the
week with above average temperatures. A short wave passes mainly
to the north on Wednesday as a cool front shifts through. Dry
conditions are expected to remain, though cooler but still above
average temperatures are expected behind the front. Temperatures
again rebound to end the work week. Upper flow shifts southwest
for the end of the week bringing precipitation chances to
portions of the area going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A quick period of sct/bkn clouds based between 5kft and 10kft
through 15z Sunday, except 18z at KJMS. A vcsh was added to KMOT 12z
through 15z as regional radar indicate higher reflectivity`s
approaching and upstream surface observations show very isolated
light precipitation amounts. Otherwise dry with the sky trending
clear during the day through tonight. Expect west to northwest winds
15kt to 28kt from mid morning Sunday through sunset.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



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