Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE-BASED
CAPE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EAST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS BOTTINEAU COUNTY THIS EVENING
BEFORE FIZZLING OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDER TO THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS A RESULT.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER HAS SPARKED A FEW STORMS OVER EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. IF THESE STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT
TRAJECTORY...THEY WOULD CROSS INTO EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE HEADING INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER EASTERN MONTANA. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH THESE STORMS ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA...STILL INDICATED
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXTREME WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS REFLECTED
IN THE NEW HWO. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BISMARCK CWA AFFECTING LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES. THE LATEST WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM PROG THIS ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THESE COUNTIES AFTER 03Z. ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS CLOUDS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ND CLEAR...FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
POSSIBILITY. THUS ADDED A MENTION OF FOG SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HETTINGER TO ROLLA.

STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THUS
POPS WERE HIGHEST...30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...AND THEN
OVER THE FAR SOUTH...ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE POPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE BREEZY ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
QUIET/QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

THE LONG TERM BEGINS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND DEEP SURFACE
LOW EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH DUE TO
THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH STILL LOOKS
COOL...BREEZY...AND WET AT TIMES. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS...WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT EMBEDDED ENERGY THUS WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR LABOR DAY.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS OVER KJMS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KMOT-KISN COULD
SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEE
INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR DETAILS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





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