Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211446
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. NO WEATHER AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY
JUST A WIND SHIFT FROM A NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST WIND FROM A
MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THIS WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST TO WEST. HIGH TODAY A BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...MID 70S FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST CENTRAL. A BIT
COOLER SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. SUNNY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN FORECAST UPDATE.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. VFR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA


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