Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
643 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Held on to pops across the northwest a little longer this morning
with this update, based on latest radar, surface obs and high res
model solutions. Mainly just elevated warm advection showers
across that region. Very little lightning occurring and has been
mainly confined to north of the international border during the
past hour. Otherwise, expect the shower activity to continue
pushing eastward.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Showers and thunderstorms, breezy winds, and warm temperatures
will characterize the short term.

A cold front will sweep through the region today. Ahead of the
front showers and thunderstorms may develop across northern North
Dakota and the James Valley. As the front pushes through by early
afternoon winds will increase to around 30 mph and shift out of
the west. Because westerly mixing winds are downsloping winds they
will combine with compressional warming to increase temperatures
into the 80s across most of the area...with even some low 90s
possible across the south.

Because return flow has just recently kicked in moisture return
has been limited. This will keep most of western North Dakota dry.
As the front pushes eastward and the moisture catches up more
widespread precipitation is expected. Thankfully, by the time
there is enough moisture and instability to be concerned about
severe storms the front should be well out of western and central
North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Much cooler, below-normal temperatures are expected late this week
and into the weekend.

The drier trend in models for this weekend seems to continue.
Thus, only a chance of showers appears possible this weekend.
With cool temperatures and minimal moisture instability will be low
and thus the probability for thunderstorms is low. Our confidence
remains high in temperatures only staying in the 60s during the
day Friday and Saturday, and temperatures falling into the 40s


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. A few showers could
reach KMOT and KJMS, but would be very brief and not result in any
reductions in cigs or vis. Otherwise, breezy conditions will
develop today with winds switching out of the northwest at all
locations as a cold front moves across the state today. Expect a
mid/late morning windshift out of the northwest at KISN and KDIK,
eventually reaching KJMS by mid/late afternoon.




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