Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 031848
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1248 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

BAND OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS SOUTH CENTRAL WITH SOME
AREAS NORTH CENTRAL SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS. BUMPED UP POPS OVER
THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL. COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

SENT ANOTHER UPDATE FOR POPS LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXTENDED POPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A NARROW LINE WITH LITTLE OR NO QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LITTLE MORE ROBUST RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR...THEN TAPERING TO TRACE AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

BASES ON LATEST RADAR AND AREA WEBCAMS...BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU
TO GARRISON WITH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIOGA AND CROSBY AND RADARS SHOW
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW ARE
GREATER THAN 6 MILES SO VERY LIGHT. UPDATED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW.

A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH WAS PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS THE FOCUS FOR
LIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT SNOW
ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST THIS SNOW ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING AND DIMINISH. A SECONDARY AREA OF PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
SWINGS THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THE SHORT TERM HIGH-RES
MODELS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE A LIGHT BAND OF SNOW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND CROSBY AND MINOT AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED ARE STRONG WINDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW ON SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY A MODERATELY
STRONG WIND EVENT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

BEGINNING THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH ITS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH REINFORCING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOME
RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS AN H500 RIDGE GETS NUDGED INLAND BY STRONG
PACIFIC FLOW. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES LOSING SOME OF ITS MOISTURE AS IT ENTERS THE PLAINS. WARM
ADVECTION SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE SO LESS THAN AN INCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL END FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH
A CHINOOK FLOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR ON SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE.

THIS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PAST MODELS RUNS FOCUSED THE STRONGEST
H850 WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST 00Z MODELS BRING WINDS
MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH SURFACE PRESSURE RISES FOCUSED
IN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THIS INTRODUCES MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SNOW AND WINDS IN HWO
FOR SUNDAY.

COOLER MONDAY AND CONTINUED BREEZY. COOL TUESDAY EAST. MAINLY
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS KBIS AND KJMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING AT KISN...KDIK AND KMOT AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON KBIS AND KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KMOT TO
KJMS THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH



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