Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271851
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A CATEGORY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING
A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT...ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES
EXPIRE FOR THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRIGID LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST MAY REBOUND EVEN FURTHER WITH A
MINIMAL SNOWPACK. A COLD WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. IT WILL SIMPLY BRING A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A POTENTIAL WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS COMMENCES THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TREND IS FOR THE
TROUGH AXIS TO PROPAGATE EAST TO BE ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL WARM UP TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. OVERALL...LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO
SPEAK OF AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING...GENERATING A WIND SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM



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