Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 140530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1130 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Current forecast remains on track as radar reflectivitys are
beginning to increase in coverage and intensity across the north.
No observations sites in northwest ND reporting snow as of yet,
but high resolution models are in agreement with light snow
developing west into west, and into west central now through 12z.
Current forecast pop trends have likely to categorical conditions
in the right location, thus no changes needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 932 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Latest high-res models have backed off some on snow potential over
northern areas, while snow has been a bit slow to develop north
per latest Canadian radar imagery. Therefore, have backed off a
little bit on snow chances over the far north, but kept chances
higher further south. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Cloudy conditions remain over much of the area as we wait for the
next clipper that is currently pushing through the southern
prairie provinces to slide into our area. Going forecast remains
in good shape with no changes needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Forecast highlight in the short term period will be light
accumulating snow tonight into Thursday.

Currently, northwest flow aloft remains across the region with
gradient forcing maintaining a breezy northwest wind across
western and central North Dakota. Rear jet induced lift triggering
light radar returns over my eastern counties with surface
observations indicating either light snow or mixed precipitation.
With road surface temperatures above freezing and CAA aloft, not
concerned with freezing rain impacts at this time. Large area of
low stratus remains across all but the west, which will also soon
cloud up with increasing mid level clouds streaming in.

Large scale ascent will increase and push from northwest to
southeast tonight into Thursday morning as the next clipper and
trailing PVA move south-southeast across our area. GEFS Plumes
and model derived QPF/snow ratios still show average snowfall
amounts between half an inch to one and a half inches through
Thursday morning. Despite this not being a large amount of snow,
it will occur during the Thursday morning commute, so will message
this through social media and the HWO at this time. Will consider
a Special Weather Statement this evening but for now the above
mentioned messaging should suffice.

One particular area that may need re-evaluating is the higher
terrain of southwestern North Dakota which will see the stronger
winds and thus perhaps more travel impacts from falling/blowing

Snow chances taper off and winds will decrease through Thursday
afternoon. Daytime highs relatively chilly from what we`ve been
experiencing of late, but still mild compared to seasonal averages
with forecast highs tomorrow in the 30s. For perspective, last
year at this time highs were in the single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

We remain in an active northwest flow pattern through the long
term period with multiple clippers impacting the Northern Plains.
Latest model guidance times the clippers for Friday-Friday night,
Saturday night-Sunday, Monday, and late Tuesday into Wednesday.
The farther out the more uncertainty with each, specifically
timing and track.

With each wave we will see a chance of snow, increased winds, and
large temperature swings (cold and warm air advection).

Beyond the operational period, trends continue for colder air to
pour into the region late next week into the following weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Mvfr cigs and periods of mvfr vsbys in light snow are forecast
for KMOT/KBIS/KDIK through 12z-15z Thursday. Ifr cigs are forecast
at KMOT from 08z-15z Thursday; otherwise expect mvfr cigs at all
remaining terminals. Gusty northwest winds will develop by mid
morning ranging between 15kt and 25kt. Some low vfr cigs expected
after 00z Friday at KISN/KDIK.




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