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000
FXUS63 KBIS 071224
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL. REFINED THE CLOUD COVER WITH
THIS UPDATE. EXPANDED THE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 10 AM CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT. EXPECTING DECREASING TODAY MOST AREAS...BUT QUICKLY
INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING WEST AND CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NARROW POCKET
OF DRIER AIR NOW WORKING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OR ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO END BY 12Z. THEREAFTER A DRY DAY
TODAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF SOUTHEAST ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN WILL SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO EASTERN MONTANA LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD FALL SHORT IN REACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MODELS PORTRAY THE WEDGE OF DRIER AIR MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
A MODERATELY HIGH RH FIELD MOST OF THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL RH INCREASING
FURTHER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/VERTICAL MOTION
INCREASES...AND THEN SPREADS INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S
SOUTHWEST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 BELOW IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 15 ABOVE SOUTHWEST. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
STRONGEST IN THE WEST...EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

A BROAD WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH
SUNDAY THE MILDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND 40S CENTRAL ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE SNOW MELT ACROSS THE AREA. BY
MONDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THIS
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE. ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IS EXPECTED HOWEVER. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY THE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
ANOTHER DRY WARM UP. MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE
ONLY TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY TO DEPART FROM THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
WAS SATURDAY. WITH THE COOL SURFACE HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT DRIFTING EAST
SHOULD SEE A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE SNOW COVERED
AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HELD MAX TEMPS BACK ABOUT 5
DEGREES...OR LOWER 30S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BETWEEN THE
MISSOURI EVER AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEYS NORTH TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. OTHERWISE THE SOUTHWEST WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SCT/BKN MVFR
CIGS FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND INTO KJMS. KMOT AND KISN HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS FARTHER UPSTREAM
IN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
WITH THE OVERALL CIGS LIFTING AND FAVORING LOW VFR. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MVFR CIGS WILL SURGE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO THE WESTERN
AERODROMES FRIDAY EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...GRADUALLY
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA