Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 300227
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS






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