


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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147 FXUS63 KBIS 022337 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across the northwest late tonight with damaging winds up to 60 mph and large hail up to quarter size being the main threats. - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon into the night. The main hazards are golf ball size hail, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado or two. - Thunderstorm chances will continue Friday with a low chance for severe weather out east. - Warm and humid conditions tomorrow and Friday with a cooling trend through the rest of the weekend. Daily thunderstorm chances will carry over into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Quiet weather continues across western and central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update. Further upstream, showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop along a surface trough in central Montana. This trough, and accompanying storms, are not anticipated to reach our western counties until late this evening or early tonight. We will continue to monitor these storms as they approach. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings during this period reveals a somewhat decent near surface inversion over south central North Dakota tonight through the mid morning hours on Thursday. While southwesterly winds remain somewhat elevated overnight, fog is possible wherever winds die down and in low lying areas. Thus, have added in some patchy fog into the far south central into the James River Valley area for early tonight through the mid morning hours Thursday. Otherwise, have made some slight adjustments to the PoPs to account for the latest model trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 An upper level ridge continues to progress over the Northern Rockies this afternoon lifting a low-level thermal ridge across the High Plains of Montana. Thus, some sites in far western North Dakota have already touched the lower 90s. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to warm into upper 80s to lower 90s. A weak wave will traverse the upper level ridge late tonight bringing forth thunderstorms to the northwest. There is a low chance that these storm could be severe with gusty winds up to 60 mph and quarter size hail. The CAMs are highlight a weakening quasi-linear cluster of storms dissipating in the northwest around midnight. Overnight lows are forecast to sit in the 60s tonight. Tomorrow, the upper level ridge axis is forecast to pass over the Northern Plains. This will likely be one of the warmest days this week with temperatures forecast to climb into the 90s across the western and central North Dakota with a few sites nearing triple digits. In addition, a north south orientated surface pressure gradient will bring forth a low level jet around 20 mph that will pull in 60s dewpoints across the state. High dewpoints and high temperatures will lead to hot and muggy conditions tomorrow. Surface low pressure and an upper level wave is forecast to move in from eastern Montana tomorrow. This will lead to the potential for thunderstorms. Tomorrows environment supports a chance for isolated to scattered severe storms tomorrow afternoon. MUCAPE is forecast to sit around 2500-3500 j/kg with around 30-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. Forecast sounding were originally showing a substantial cap hindering initiation, but the latest CAMs have come in with little to no cap tomorrow afternoon. Forecast hodographs do have a few hours of low level curvature which could support a tornado or two if storms become surface based. The aforementioned upper level wave and convective temperature could play a roll in storm initiation tomorrow afternoon with the low level jet supporting storms after development. The mode of the storm could start out as discrete supercells organizing into a line late tomorrow tonight with some HREF members hinting at an MCS. The main hazards are golf ball size hail, 70 mph winds, and a tornado or two. The upper level ridge axis is forecast to move across eastern North Dakota and eastern Minnesota Friday. This will lead to another round of hot temperatures across the eastern half of the state. An upper level short wave is forecast to move through the region bringing in chances for thunderstorms. In addition precipitable water is forecast to increase across the eastern half of the state ranging from 1.5 in Bismarck to 1.8 in Fargo which could lead to the heavy rain potential. The heavy rain will be more localized as the NBM probabilities of an inch or more of precipitation are low through Saturday. There is an isolated risk for severe weather out east Friday afternoon clipping the southern James River Valley. An upper level trough will pass across the region Saturday leading to increased rain chances and cooler temperatures. The wrap around precipitation from the upper level low is forecast to bring in showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning with another wave following suit Sunday. Temperatures will drop back down into the upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend. Next week we could see a return of severe weather as the upper level pattern returns to zonal flow with multiple waves moving through the region. CSU machine learning program is pegging Monday and Tuesday for having low chance of severe weather. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR ceilings and visibility is mainly anticipated at all terminals throughout the 00Z TAF period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms, one or two of which may be stronger, are possible in the northwest late this evening through the early overnight, including at the terminal of KXWA, before diminishing early Thursday morning. Have included a PROB30 group for -TSRA at KXWA with this update Patchy fog may be possible in the south east, including over the James River Valley, the the chance of this is too low to include at any given TAF site at this time. Tomorrow afternoon, showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible in the northwest and north central. Some of these thunderstorms may become strong to severe, with large hail up to the size of golf balls, wind gusts up to 70 MPH, and a tornado or two being possible with any severe thunderstorm that does develop. Have include another set of PROB30s at KXWA and KMOT for -SHRA with this update mid Thursday afternoon through the end of the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread beyond the end of the TAF period, sweeping from west to east through Thursday evening and overnight. Southeast winds are expected to become gusty across the north as a low level jet sets up overnight, with wind speeds up to around 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots expected. Winds are then expected to turn southerly Thursday morning and afternoon, with moderate winds with sustained speeds up to 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots possible across south central North Dakota. Where showers and thunderstorms do develop tonight or Thursday afternoon, gusty and erratic winds can be anticipated. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Johnson