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000
FXUS63 KBIS 230944
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON-
SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED
S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW
LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH
STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM)
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO
INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS
PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED
STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE
SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO
NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER
DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX
SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH
ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS
WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO
KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS
SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER
30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS/VIS GENERALLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-011-020>022-034>036-042-045>047-050.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-023-025-037-048-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH