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000
FXUS63 KBIS 060612
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO 25 BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WITH BAKER MONTANA AT 22 BELOW AND HETTINGER AT 20 BELOW AT 06
UTC. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING AS
WIND CHILL VALUES OF LESS THAN 40 BELOW COULD HAVE GREATER
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING. IF SO...THIS WOULD
WARRANT A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WIND CHILL WARNING LATER TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S BELOW ZERO ALL LOCATIONS...AND
MAY HIT THE 40 BELOW MARK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OVER SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RELATIVE LACK OF COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
THESE COLDER VALUES...WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 35 BELOW ZERO EXPECTED TONIGHT.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS GRADIENT FLOW WEAKENS THIS EVENING...THE BLOWING
SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE MEANDERS NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM H5 PATTERN...WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
RESIDING OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
SLIDE THROUGH AND REINFORCE ARCTIC AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PHASING OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN JET BRANCHES
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC/CHC SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 94 SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...PRODUCING
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR
LESS...IS POSSIBLE WITH BOTH EVENTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL/WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. IT IS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO RECOVER AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CEASE TO BE MET.
WOULD ALSO EXPECT SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES PER GFS AND THE ALLBLEND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

CONCERNING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN TACT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH PERHAPS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST BEING SPARED. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS/SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WARMER
THAN 25 BELOW ZERO...WHILE ELSEWHERE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE 30S BELOW ZERO. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...IT
APPEARS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY NEED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINE...THIS COMING IN BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED ALBERTA CLIPPER. FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WOULD BE WARMER THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ELSEWHERE. BOTTOM LINE
IS EXPECT A WIND CHILL HEADLINE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM SINGLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO HIGHS
SATURDAY...TO SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH FOLLOWED
BY HIGHS IN THE 20S THURSDAY. THE NORTH STAYS COLDEST WITH HIGHS
RISING TO ONLY AROUND 10 ABOVE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

THIN AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECKS...WITH POSSIBLE
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE DECKS WHICH ARE AT TIMES HARD TO PICK UP ON SATELLITE DUE TO
THE COLD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD