Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 161722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Current forecast on track for the afternoon. Short term high res
models continue to indicate the best chances for widespread rain
is across northwest into north central North Dakota, where a
secondary mid level low/shortwave is forecast to lift northeast
out of Wyoming/southeast Montana and move across western ND
towards the north central this afternoon before lifting into
Manitoba this evening. Other impulses associated with this
shortwave will keep scattered to isolated chances across the
southwest and south central.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Updated pops based on latest radar imagery and lowered
temperatures a bit over central ND. Otherwise no changes from the
previous forecast.

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Inherited forecast remains on track. Did update POPs and weather
based on latest radar imagery, though only minor edits resulted.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Another round of rainshowers today, especially west and north
central, followed by patchy frost west tonight.

The latest water vapor imagery shows the next shortwave trough
extending from eastern Idaho south into Utah which will lift
northeast today. The NAM/GFS advertise strong synoptic scale
ascent shifting into western and north central ND today leading to
categorical pops. Another area of showers will lift from South
Dakota into the James River Valley, leaving portions of south
central ND in a lull with the lowest pops. The shortwave trough
exits the Turtle Mountains tonight with a gradual clearing trend
after midnight from southwest to northeast. Patchy frost expected
for the west, with areas of frost forecast around Hettinger. Will
let the dayshift revisit this for possible headlines later
tonight. This could be complicated by fog/low clouds that might
develop given the high amount of rainfall that occurred yesterday,
and what is expected today. Highs today in the upper 40s west to
mid 50s in the southern James River Valley. Lows tonight will
range from lower to mid 30s west to lower 40s in the James River

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Transitory ridge slides through Sunday, providing for a dry day
with highs rebounding into the lower to mid 60s. Another shortwave
quickly moves through Sunday night with a some showers mainly in
south central and into the James River Valley. Southwesterly flow
initiates again Monday, ahead of our next potent shortwave
trough/associated surface cold front. Monday will be dry with
highs in the 70s. A vigorous cold front then begins to slide
across western ND late Monday night, and continues east Tuesday,
arriving in the James Valley Tuesday afternoon. The ECMWF is
slower with the cold front, which if verifies, will put most of
central ND in a prime spot for some risk of severe thunderstorms.
Will continue to watch the trends for this.

The strong shortwave and surface cold front push through Tuesday
night. A brief break Wednesday, then the next shortwave edges
closer to western and central ND Wednesday night through Friday.
Expect an increase in showers with this shortwave during this


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Strong low pressure system over the northern plains into the Great
Lakes will keep MVFR to occasional IFR conditions at all TAF sites
in rain and drizzle through the evening hours. As the system exits
tonight ceilings will improve to VFR 06-12Z.




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