Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181941
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS LAYER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
QUICKLY ERODING EASTWARD FROM FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE EAST WILL SEE
EARLY EVENING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THEN TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH DRY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT. THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN SHOWS A HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS MONTANA THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES DEPICTS FAST-MOVING ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT AFTER THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR EAST. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AT 2 PM CDT...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH
A COLD FRONT OF MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGIN (MEANING MODEST COLD AIR)
IN CENTRAL MONTANA. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED FROM EITHER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. AFTER THE
STRATUS CLEARS KJMS AROUND 21Z VFR WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA







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