Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191408

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
908 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Issued at 905 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Current forecast trending ok with rain spreading across
southwest North Dakota and patchy fog northwest. The fog will
dissipate quickly and the rain will spread across the southern
third of the state and chance of rain west today. Just updated
the current conditions.

Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Bowman radar filling in over southwest ND so increased POPs and
sped up the timing of the northward progression a tad. Clouds
nearly overcast across my entire area now so sky cover was also
increased. Remainder of the forecast is in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be chances for
rain today/tonight.

Currently, S/WV mid level ridge building northeast across the
Northern Plains/south central Canada with surface high pressure
over the eastern Dakotas/Upper Mississippi Valley. A potent
embedded S/WV trough/impulse over Wyoming is advecting east-
northeast towards the Dakotas. Increasing cloud cover ahead of
this feature with the initial wave of rain just to our south
across central/northern SD.

Embedded impulse moves into western SD this morning, closes off
and continues east-northeast across the local region this
afternoon and evening before pushing into Minnesota late tonight.
High pressure will limit precipitation chances across the north
initially today with rain developing south early this morning and
mainly confined to along and south of the I94 corridor.
Precipitation continues with this feature through the evening with
diminishing chances from west to east 03-09Z. A northern stream
S/WV trough will moves easterly along the international border and
will bring rain chances to west central and northwestern ND later
today, then west to east tonight. SREF prob t-storm has
consistently advertised some potential for diurnally driven
thunderstorms across eastern MT/northwest ND so reinserted this
into the forecast. Decent QPF amounts with the southern stream
wave, a quarter to one-half inch forecast along to south of I94,
lesser farther north.

Went below guidance for highs today across the south by several
degrees where we expect the thicker cloud cover and rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Upper level ridging/high pressure will result in dry conditions
Thursday-Friday. Ridge breaks down Saturday bringing some
precipitation chances to the region, then rebuilds for Sunday.
Afterwards (early next week) a long wave trough moving into the
western CONUS and eventually into the central U.S. will see
active/wet weather return to the Northern Plains region.
Temperatures generally in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s to
mid 40s through the weekend, cooling some for early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)

Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Observations across western and central ND this morning continue
to show a few spots reporting variable visibilities in fog. Will
again keep out of the terminal forecasts for now. Rain chances
will increase today across southern and western TAF sites as a
storm system moves across the region. The best rain chances early
on will be at KDIK and KBIS, eventually including KISN and KJMS.
KMOT will see a shot of precipitation later. Models indicating
MVFR stratus with the rain, then IFR-MVFR clouds developing later
tonight and into Thursday morning.




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