Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 250554
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

GIVEN GOOD COVERAGE OF RADAR ASSIMILATION...THE 00-04 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION SUITES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL RELAY ON A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THESE SOLUTIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR POPS AND QPF.
MAINTAINED A CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SOUTH CENTRAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TO BE ON THE DECREASE...WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
RETREATING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH...EXPECT A
SLOW CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA PROVIDING SOURCE OF THE LIFT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
BELIEVE THE INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY PINCH OFF AND TREND TO
MAINLY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA GENERATING LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. EXTENDED THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID EVENING SOUTH CENTRAL. SEEING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTHWEST AT DICKINSON EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR INDICATIVE OF A
LARGE/BROAD MID/UPPER COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION EMINATING FROM
A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WANING THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE END THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 00Z. WILL MAINTAIN
NO MENTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A MID LEVEL/700MB
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
AND THEN RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE WEST MONDAY...PUSHING LIGHT RAIN
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
FOLLOW THE SREF/NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ABATE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SIMILAR WET PATTERN RELOADS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE COLDER
H85 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL GIVE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND
POSSIBLY ALL SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WPC SNOWFALL MAP SHOWS 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS/KDIK/KJMS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN RAIN...STRATUS AND FOG. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN AT KDIK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY
HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT
KISN/KMOT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.