Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 150430

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1030 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017


Issued at 1030 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Adjusted hourly weather elements with latest observations. Sped up
the timing of the southward progression of the stratus based on
trends. Holes in the stratus showing up to the north. Models not
portraying this very well but tried to convey this thinking in the
forecast. Light rain should exit off to our east currently over
south central ND in the next couple of hours. Gusty northwest
winds will continue to develop south tonight, decreasing in
magnitude west late.

Issued at 610 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Cold front continues to push south into the Northern Plains.
Northwest winds have ramped up just recently at KISN with gusts to
near 30KTs. These winds will continue to develop south and east
this evening and through the overnight hours across much of my
area behind the front. MVFR ceilings across southern Canada will
also quickly push south-southeast with the winds this evening
covering all but my southwest tonight. Adjusted the wind grids for
better timing based on latest observations, along with sky cover.
Will maintain a low chance for light rain south, and some snow
chances north with the stratus. Temperatures were also adjusted
based on colder than advertised already across my northwest.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

The forecast concerns for the short term include the diminishing
fog across the southeast, a brief period of gusty winds with a cold
frontal passage this evening, and the cooler temperatures Wednesday.

The dense fog advisory for the southern James River Valley has
been cancelled. The fog area will be permanently (for the short
term) swept away by a leading trough that will bring northwest
mixing winds this afternoon.

This will be followed by a more potent cold frontal passage this
evening, bringing colder temperatures and some gusty northwest
winds, and will, for the most part be a dry frontal passage with
just some slight chances for light snow north central this evening.

Wednesday will be 25 to 30 degrees colder than today with winds
gradually diminishing. Partly sunny highs teens north central to
the 30s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

For the first part of the extended we expect a roller coaster
temperature trend as several weak short waves track across the
International border. On Wednesday night a moderate to strong
pressure gradient sets up between high pressure in Ontario and
deepening low pressure in southwest Alberta. The deterministic
models all set up strong h850 southerly winds near 50kt Thursday
morning across the south central. However, sounding profiles suggest
surface winds more like 20 to 35 mph. Expect winds to shift to the
James River valley by afternoon, and could see some near advisory
criteria winds at that time.

Yet another cold front swings through Thursday night, with a more
potent one Friday night that will bring cooler temperatures
and gusty winds.

Saturday through Tuesday brings more uncertainty as models
become out of phase, with the European trending toward a REX Block
over the Central Plains and the GFS dominated by a cold Hudson
bay low. Either way, expect a strong temperatures difference
between southwest ND and northeast ND. Although early, do mot see
any significant storms on the horizon for the Thanksgiving Holiday


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)

Issued at 610 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

A cold front will continue to move through the region over the
next few hours this evening. The front will usher in MVFR
conditions for KISN-KMOT after 00Z, KBIS-KJMS after 07Z. Still
uncertain if KDIK will see the lower cigs. Gusty northwest winds
will also develop behind the front with gusts to near 30KT. The
stronger winds will persist the longest at KMOT and KJMS.




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