Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 081707
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

BAND OF CUMULUS FORMING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HRRR
MODEL SUGGESTS THE CU REGION WILL EXPAND WEST AS DIURNAL HEATING
SETS IN. SMOKE ACROSS CANADA MAKING SKIES A BIT MILKY BUT SO FAR
NOT REDUCING VSBYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

HIGH PRESSURE FROM MONTANA THROUGH WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. RAISED
SKY CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY CENTRAL AND EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH OFF TO
THE WEST. ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON CLOUD COVER
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE WE ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW...THUS WE WILL STILL BE PLAGUED WITH
CYCLONIC COOL FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA. LATER IN THE
EVENING...SOME PRECIP MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

FOR THURSDAY...COMPACT SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA WHILE COLD
FRONT OVER MONTANA WORKS ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EVENING/NIGHT.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON (CAPE 1000-2000
J/KG) WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT WHETHER THE FORCING CAN
OVERCOME THE CAP IN PLACE IS THE QUESTION. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
DISCRETE AFTERNOON STORM OR TWO FROM DEVELOPING. BETTER CHANCES COME
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH.

A MODESTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH WRN CONUS RIDGE...KEEPING OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. MODELS SUGGESTING STRONG LOW DROPPING FROM
WRN HUDSON BAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND ITS BACK-SIDE. DEPENDING ON IF THIS
DEVELOPS...AND IF IT DOES HOW FAR WEST IT PUSHES...TEMPERATURES
COULD BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
EAST. STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 AGL. SCT CLOUDS 25 HUNDRED CERTAINLY
LIKELY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THIS MUCH
TO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN TAFS. PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL COINCIDE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING BETWEEN 18Z- 01Z. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
FORECAST FIRES SHOWING UP IN SASK WITH 4SM MILES VSBY. WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME AS BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE AN INVERSION
ACROSS ND REGION THAT MAY KEEP SMOKE ELEVATED. BUT WILL MONITOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA






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