Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 241843
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1243 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE THE GREATEST CHANGE WAS TO PUSH POPS
AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE EAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS PUSHED THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH LATEST TRENDS ON AREA RADARS
ALONG WITH CANADIAN RADARS. NOW LOOKS AS IF THE AXIS OF GREATEST
SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MORE OR LESS ALONG A LINE FROM
STANELY TO BISMARCK WHERE TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 842 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SOME FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SO
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY. RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW AREA
DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE FLURRIES IN AS THE
PRIMARY WEATHER ELEMENT AS ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS SEEN ON JMS OB.
OTHERWISE FLURRIES ENDING EAST BY MID MORNING,...AND SNOW
DEVELOPING WEST. STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ROBUST WITH CONTINUED STRONG PRESSURE RISES
AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
CLOUDS...MILD DEW POINT TEMPERATURES...AND THE STEADY NORTHWEST
MIXING WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. LOW STRATUS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND EAST AT
THE MOMENT. FINALLY SEEING RADAR RETURNS WITH THE COLD FROPA OVER
MY NORTHEAST SO WILL MAINTAIN FLURRIES WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

SURFACE TROUGH NOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT EMBEDDED IMPULSE RIDING OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE. THIS SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY IN ADDITION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERRUNNING FLOW REGIME OVER MY WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE EAST OF
THE SFC TROUGH/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRIGGERING TWO
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE FIRST ROUND DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK COMBINES WITH THE THERMAL
UPGLIDE OVER MY WEST. ONCE FORCING ALOFT WANES AS THE JET STREAK
CONTINUES SOUTHEAST...EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES TICKLE THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND TRIGGER PRECIPITATION. THIS SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ENCOMPASS BOTH MY WEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES (MAINLY ALONG TO
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83)...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO MINNESOTA
ALLOWING FOR THE OVERRUNNING FLOW REGIME TO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST.

THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL DICTATE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS EITHER SNOW OR RAIN. ONLY
CHANCE FOR LIQUID WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL NEAR 35-40F. MODELS STILL SUGGEST WE WILL REMAIN SATURATED
ALOFT DURING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. IN BETWEEN
BOTH WAVES OF PRECIPITATION THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
UNSATURATED AIR ALOFT...THOUGH 00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT DO NOT MENTION
FREEZING RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS TODAY PROGRESSES.

COLDER TONIGHT AS STRONG CAA DEVELOPS BRINGING SUBZERO LOWS TO THE
FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM COLD UPPER LOW
FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA THOUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL
KEEP THE EXTENDED PERIOD COLD AND DRY.

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIND
CHILLS 30 TO 40 BELOW WILL BE A HAZARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER
MOST OF THE REGION...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST ESCAPING THE COLDEST
CHILLS.

THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY AS THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONES SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LEAVING NORTH DAKOTA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WITH LCL IFR/LIFR VIS IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






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