Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 200521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Quite a bit of MVFR stratus across western and central ND early
this morning. However there a couple of clear areas. One in the
far south central into the James River Valley where temperatures
have fallen below forecast lows. Updated temperatures here to drop
lows into the mid and upper 20s. Clouds are pushing eastward and
should fill in here shortly, keeping temperatures from falling too
much. Out west skies have cleared in the far southwest and west
central. Evening shift put in some fog and this looks good. Beach
did drop down to a quarter mile just this past hour. Will monitor
for the extent of fog but did extend areal coverage a little
farther north. Latest satellite shows a shortwave dropping
southeast toward NC ND. Latest HRRR/RAP show some light
reflectivities over the north central through 12 UTC. At this time
nothing is showing up on area radars and surface observations so
will keep things dry for now.

UPDATE Issued at 921 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Broad area of low cloud cover remains over much of western and
central North Dakota and latest HRRR guidance keeps this in for
much of the night. Exception to this will be over the far
southwest where skies look to gradually clear. Concern for that
area may be some patchy fog developing later on, as visibility has
already dropped down some in Baker, Montana. Have addressed each
of these concerns in latest update.

UPDATE Issued at 534 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Light showers continue over the far southwest part of North
Dakota in modest cyclonic flow as a weak short wave passes
through. Expect these showers to taper off early this evening and
shift off to the southeast. Have adjusted precipitation chances to
account for this.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

No forecast highlights in the short term period.

Currently, models have not performed very well at all with low
level stratus today across west and central ND. While an area from
Mountrail County southeast through the southern James River Valley
has scattered out/cleared, all other areas remain overcast. Will
based sky cover forecast for the next several hours on current
satellite and then blend to high res guidance. Models indicate a
bkn sky cover tonight though right now thinking low VFR.

Will keep showers in the forecast southwest this afternoon and
evening with Bowman radar indicating decent returns there at the

Much warmer Thursday with more sun expected and weak WAA as we
remain in a cyclonic flow pattern until Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A mid level S/WV trough moving through the Northern Plains will
bring a chance for rain showers to the region Thursday night into
Friday morning. Thereafter a building upper level ridge will
result in a mainly dry weather pattern over the weekend and
through early next week along with a nice moderation in
temperatures, with highs in the 50s & 60s this weekend. Ridge
will then shift east next Monday night transitioning our flow
aloft to southwesterly with increasing chances for precipitation
early to mid week.

Towards the end of next week an increasingly active weather
pattern will eventually bring in cooler temperatures once again.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

MVFR ceilings from KISN through KDIK will be advancing east
into KMOT and KBIS by 20/08Z. At KJMS, clouds will increase by
20/08Z and MVFR ceilings are forecast in there around daybreak.
Drier air will push in from Montana during the day Thursday with a
clearing sky from the west.




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